BNP Paribas SA (BNP) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · FR · Market cap €113B · ISIN FR0000131104
What is BNP Paribas SA really worth?
A solid business, trading 28% below our fair value of €144.64.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price −6.8% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (€108.48). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (56/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €31.77 – €112.80 · fair‑value band €108.48 – €180.80 · the €104.54 price screens below the €144.64 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
Analysis
BNP Paribas SA (BNP) currently trades at €104.54, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €144.64, implying the stock looks roughly 27.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €144.46 per share, and 3 of the 6 models we run sit above the €104.54 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €42.30, and 3 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, BNP Paribas SA generated revenue of €49.1B at a net margin of 25.5%. Revenue grew 9.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.6%. Net debt stands at €482B. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €108.48 (bear case) to €180.80 (bull case); at €104.54, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 65% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at 38%, BNP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly €3.26 per share, which is 2.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (€144.46) versus Dividend Discount (€42.30). Highest evidence: Residual Income (75).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 76
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
BNP Paribas SA provides various banking and financial products and services in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Americas, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through three divisions: Corporate & Institutional Banking; Commercial, Personal Banking & Services; and Investment & Protection Services.
Full company description
BNP Paribas SA provides various banking and financial products and services in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Americas, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through three divisions: Corporate & Institutional Banking; Commercial, Personal Banking & Services; and Investment & Protection Services. The Corporate & Institutional Banking division offers capital market, securities, financing, risk management, securities clearing, custody, consulting, transaction banking, cash management, investment banking, and financial advisory services for corporate and institutional clients. Its Commercial, Personal Banking & Services division provides financing and equipment leasing services, lending, investment, financial and non-financial services, mobility, and digital banking services, as well as current accounts, savings products, bancassurance, insurance products and services, and consumer loans. The Investment & Protection Services division provides protection, savings, investment, and real estate services to support individuals, professionals, corporate clients, and institutions, as well as asset management, insurance, protection, pensions, and private banking services. The company was formerly known as Banque Nationale de Paris and changed its name to BNP Paribas SA in May 2000. BNP Paribas SA was founded in 1822 and is headquartered in Paris, France.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
BNP Paribas SA reported revenue of €119B in FY2025 versus €108B in FY2021, a compound +2.5%/yr. Reported net income was €12.2B in FY2025, compounding +6.5%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +8.5 % · buybacks/dilution +0.9 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- BNP Paribas Primary New Issues: Post-Stab No Stab Notice - NEXANS
- BNP Paribas (BNPQY) Upgraded to Buy: Here's Why
- BNP PARIBAS GROUP: SUDAN LITIGATION STATEMENT FROM BNP PARIBAS
Peer Group
Banks - Regional · 1071 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 29, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| DBS Group D05 | 75.65 SGD | 40.48 SGD | −46% |
| China Merchants Bank Co 3968 | HK$47.96 | HK$76.51 | +60% |
| Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP | €6.78 | €5.66 | −17% |
| HDFC Bank Limited HDB | $23.17 | $24.12 | +4% |
| UniCredit S.p.A UCG | €84.71 | €77.62 | −8% |
| Mizuho Financial Group MFG | $10.74 | $9.69 | −10% |
| ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK | ₹1,443 | ₹835.21 | −42% |
| Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 | 31.07 SGD | 19.80 SGD | −36% |
| CaixaBank, S.A CABK | €13.52 | €8.85 | −35% |
| The PNC Financial Services Group PNC | $242.22 | $192.40 | −21% |
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