China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H (3968) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H HK$62.32, price HK$51.20, upside +21.7%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 25, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$21.07 – HK$55.29 · fair‑value band HK$52.62 – HK$102.84 · the HK$51.20 price screens below the HK$62.32 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 25, 2026.
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China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking products and services. It operates through Wholesale Finance Business, Retail Finance Business, and Other Business segments. It offers current, demand, time, call, savings, notice, and renminbi accounts.
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China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking products and services. It operates through Wholesale Finance Business, Retail Finance Business, and Other Business segments. It offers current, demand, time, call, savings, notice, and renminbi accounts. The company also offers loan products include personal commercial real estate, consumption, housing, and car loans; loans to finance for studying abroad; micro-business loans; mortgage loans for equipment; joint guarantee, special guarantee, and housing mortgage loan; bank acceptance, discount, liquid capital, and fixed asset loans; and loans for vessels. In addition, it offers credit cards; insurance products; open-ended funds; discount and guarantees for commercial bills, redemption of commercial bills, and guaranteed discount for commercial acceptance bills; and financial consultation, debt financing underwriting, merger and acquisition financing, and equity financing and enterprise listing services. Further, the company provides forfeiting and risk participation, escrow, cross-border RMB clearing, and interbank services; and risk and financial management, cross-border RMB and oversea financing, international factoring and settlement, and trade finance services. Additionally, it offers financial leasing and guarantee, investment and wealth management, forex option and gold trading, forex express trading, international, offshore and private banking, custody, pension, and electronic banking services. The company also operates in Hong Kong, New York, London, Singapore, Luxembourg, and Sydney. The company was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.
Stock analysis
China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H (3968) currently trades at HK$51.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$62.32, implying the stock looks roughly 17.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$67.64 per share, and 3 of the 6 models we run sit above the HK$51.20 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$32.37, and 3 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: HK$52.62 (bear) to HK$102.84 (bull), the price of HK$51.20 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H reported revenue of 468B CNY in FY2025 versus 450B CNY in FY2021, a compound +1.0%/yr. Reported net income was 150B CNY in FY2025, compounding +5.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$1.3T (≈ $172B) · P/E ratio 6.7 · P/S ratio 2.14 · EPS (TTM) HK$5.91 · Dividend yield 4.4% · Net margin 32.1% · Return on equity 11.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at 22%, 3968 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$52.62Fair Value HK$62.32Bull HK$102.84
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$2.67 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.89/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.6% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+12.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9% vs 10%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.57% → 38%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−1.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −3.1% a year for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (37 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
Compare China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1076 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside+22% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)12% · Above median
Return on assets1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)50% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)62% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.20× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/3968
Frequently asked questions
Is China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H (3968) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 25, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$62.32 versus a price of HK$51.20, about +22% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 3968?
Our model-based fair value for China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H is HK$62.32 (as of Sep 25, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$51.20.
What is the quality score of 3968?
China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H (3968)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$62.32 (as of Sep 25, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$52.62, optimistic scenario HK$102.84. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$62.32, about +22% upside versus a price of HK$51.20 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$52.62, optimistic scenario HK$102.84. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H (3968)?
China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 299B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 25, 2026).
Does China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H pay a dividend?
China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.44% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 25, 2026).
What growth is priced into China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H (3968)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.7 % per year. As of Sep 25, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 3968 use?
Our models discount China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H at 8.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.54, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H (3968) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H grew +15.7 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H (3968) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H (3968)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 36.65 %: that much free cash flow China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H (3968)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H it is HK$62.32 per share (as of Sep 25, 2026), against a price of HK$51.20. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 25, 2026, 3968 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$51.20, fair value HK$62.32, a gap of about +22% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 3968?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$51.20); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$62.32). For China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H the two are HK$11.12 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H worth?
The market values China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H at about HK$1.3T (market capitalisation, as of Sep 25, 2026). Per share that is HK$51.20; our models calculate a fair value of HK$62.32 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 3968?
Our models span a range for China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H: cautious scenario HK$52.62, base HK$62.32, optimistic HK$102.84 per share (as of Sep 25, 2026, price HK$51.20). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 3968?
China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.7 (as of Sep 25, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$62.32 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.2, P/B 0.9, P/S 3.9.
What is the PEG ratio of 3968?
The PEG ratio of China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H is 1.17 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 25, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H (3968)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H (as of Sep 25, 2026): return on equity 11.9%, debt of 0.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 3968 from its 52-week high?
China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H trades at HK$51.20, about 4% below its 52-week high of HK$53.35 and 18% above the low of HK$43.26 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$62.32 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 25, 2026: price HK$51.20, calculated fair value HK$62.32 (+22%), Quality Score 57/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 3968 calculated?
We run China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$62.32, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H currently trades 22 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H (3968)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was HK$51.20. Our model-based fair value is HK$62.32, about +22% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$52.62). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (HK$52.62 to HK$102.84) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H (3968) come from?
Earnings per share at China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H grew +10.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.8 %, EBIT margin +3.7 %, tax rate +0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H
How large is the market capitalisation of China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H (3968)?
The market capitalisation of China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H is HK$1.3T (≈ $172B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H (3968)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H is 2.14 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H (3968)?
Earnings per share at China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H are HK$5.91 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H (3968)?
The dividend yield of China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H is 4.4% (payout 38.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H (3968)?
The net margin of China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H is 32.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H (3968)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H is 11.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H (3968)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H is 1.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H (3968)?
The operating margin of China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H is 62.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H (3968)?
Revenue at China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H is growing +1.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H (3968)?
Earnings per share at China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H are growing +0.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H (3968) hold?
China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H holds more cash than debt, 916B CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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