China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H (3968) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · HK · Market cap HK$1.1T (≈ $141B) · ISIN CNE1000002M1
What is China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H really worth?
A solid business, trading 30% below our fair value of HK$76.51.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 17, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 17, 2026, revised from HK$86.18 to HK$76.51 (−11.2%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +9.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$57.38). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$21.07 – HK$55.29 · fair‑value band HK$57.38 – HK$95.63 · the HK$53.35 price screens below the HK$76.51 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 17, 2026.
Analysis
China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H (3968) currently trades at HK$53.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$76.51, implying the stock looks roughly 30.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$83.61 per share, and 4 of the 6 models we run sit above the HK$53.35 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$40.01, and 2 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H generated revenue of HK$299B at a net margin of 50.5%. Revenue grew 1.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$916B. Fundamentals as of Aug 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$57.38 (bear case) to HK$95.63 (bull case); at HK$53.35, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at 43%, 3968 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$2.47 per share, which is 3.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (HK$83.61) versus Asset-Based (HK$40.01). Highest evidence: Residual Income (72).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 71
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking products and services. It operates through Wholesale Finance Business, Retail Finance Business, and Other Business segments. It offers current, demand, time, call, savings, notice, and renminbi accounts.
Full company description
China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking products and services. It operates through Wholesale Finance Business, Retail Finance Business, and Other Business segments. It offers current, demand, time, call, savings, notice, and renminbi accounts. The company also offers loan products include personal commercial real estate, consumption, housing, and car loans; loans to finance for studying abroad; micro-business loans; mortgage loans for equipment; joint guarantee, special guarantee, and housing mortgage loan; bank acceptance, discount, liquid capital, and fixed asset loans; and loans for vessels. In addition, it offers credit cards; insurance products; open-ended funds; discount and guarantees for commercial bills, redemption of commercial bills, and guaranteed discount for commercial acceptance bills; and financial consultation, debt financing underwriting, merger and acquisition financing, and equity financing and enterprise listing services. Further, the company provides forfeiting and risk participation, escrow, cross-border RMB clearing, and interbank services; and risk and financial management, cross-border RMB and oversea financing, international factoring and settlement, and trade finance services. Additionally, it offers financial leasing and guarantee, investment and wealth management, forex option and gold trading, forex express trading, international, offshore and private banking, custody, pension, and electronic banking services. The company also operates in Hong Kong, New York, London, Singapore, Luxembourg, and Sydney. The company was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Class H reported revenue of 468B CNY in FY2025 versus 450B CNY in FY2021, a compound +1.0%/yr. Reported net income was 150B CNY in FY2025, compounding +5.8%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +6.0 % · buybacks/dilution −0.2 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China (SEHK:1398) Tests Repo Based Loans, Is The Stock Still Cheap?
- China's Biggest Banks Launch First Repo-Linked Loans as Lending Rules Evolve
- Thunes and UnionPay International Launch Instant Money Transfers to China's mainland
Peer Group
Banks - Regional · 1071 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| DBS Group D05 | 75.65 SGD | 40.48 SGD | −46% |
| Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP | €6.78 | €5.66 | −17% |
| HDFC Bank Limited HDB | $23.17 | $24.12 | +4% |
| BNP Paribas SA BNP | €102.56 | €144.64 | +41% |
| UniCredit S.p.A UCG | €84.71 | €77.62 | −8% |
| Mizuho Financial Group MFG | $10.74 | $9.69 | −10% |
| ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK | ₹1,443 | ₹835.21 | −42% |
| Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 | 31.07 SGD | 19.80 SGD | −36% |
| CaixaBank, S.A CABK | €13.52 | €8.85 | −35% |
| The PNC Financial Services Group PNC | $242.22 | $192.40 | −21% |
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