South32 ADR (SOUHY) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $13.2B · ISIN US84473L1052
What is South32 ADR really worth?
South32 ADR
SOUHY · US
A solid business, but trading 366% above our fair value of $4.04.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 23, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 13 days ago
Share price +12.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($5.06). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.36 – $18.84 · fair‑value band $3.17 – $5.06 · the $18.84 price screens above the $4.04 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 23, 2026.
Analysis
South32 ADR (SOUHY) currently trades at $18.84, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.04, implying the stock looks roughly 366.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $7.16 per share, and 0 of the 23 models we run sit above the $18.84 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $2.70, and 23 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, South32 ADR generated revenue of $5.9B at a net margin of 5.4%. Revenue declined 2.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $42.0M. Fundamentals as of Aug 23, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $3.17 (bear case) to $5.06 (bull case); at $18.84, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 129% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at −79%, SOUHY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 12 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.3650 per share, which is 9.0 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($7.16) versus Earnings-Based ($2.70). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (81).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 23, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 78
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
South32 Limited operates as a diversified metals and mining company. The company operates through Worsley Alumina, Brazil Alumina, Brazil Aluminium, Hillside Aluminium, Mozal Aluminium, Sierra Gorda, Cannington, Hermosa, Australia Manganese, and South Africa Manganese segments.
Full company description
South32 Limited operates as a diversified metals and mining company. The company operates through Worsley Alumina, Brazil Alumina, Brazil Aluminium, Hillside Aluminium, Mozal Aluminium, Sierra Gorda, Cannington, Hermosa, Australia Manganese, and South Africa Manganese segments. It has a portfolio of assets producing bauxite, alumina, aluminum, copper, silver, lead, zinc, and manganese products. The company has operations in Australia, Bahrain, China, Japan, Italy, Mozambique, South Africa, the Netherlands, Brazil, South Korea, the United States, rest of Middle East, rest of Asia, rest of Europe, rest of North America, and rest of Oceania. South32 Limited was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Perth, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
South32 ADR reported revenue of $5.8B in FY2025 versus $5.5B in FY2021, a compound +1.4%/yr. Reported net income was $213M in FY2025.
SOUHY screens 366% overvalued. Compare with BHP Group →
Peer Group
Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 469 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 23, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BHP Group BHP | A$66.84 | A$42.16 | −37% |
| Vale S.A VALE | $15.31 | $8.95 | −42% |
| Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 | 65.50 SAR | 33.87 SAR | −48% |
| CMOC Group 603993 | ¥18.42 | ¥16.15 | −12% |
| Teck Resources Limited TECK | $69.34 | $32.02 | −54% |
| Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC | ₹573.00 | ₹508.34 | −11% |
| China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 | ¥66.76 | ¥9.55 | −86% |
| China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 | ¥41.02 | ¥10.59 | −74% |
| Western Mining Co 601168 | ¥37.85 | ¥25.99 | −31% |
| Boliden AB BOL | kr 527.80 | kr 461.48 | −13% |
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