Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $3.6B · ISIN US8101861065
What is Scotts Miracle-Gro Company really worth?
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company
SMG · US
A solid business, but trading 126% above our fair value of $26.23.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 5, 2026
From 21 valuation models · updated today
Share price −10.7% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($40.42). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($19.48 to $40.42) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $34.30 – $170.53 · fair‑value band $19.48 – $40.42 · the $59.29 price screens above the $26.23 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
Analysis
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) currently trades at $59.29, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $26.23, implying the stock looks roughly 126.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $42.43 per share, and 0 of the 20 models we run sit above the $59.29 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $16.45, and 20 of the 20 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Scotts Miracle-Gro Company generated revenue of $3.5B at a net margin of 3.2%. Revenue grew 5.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −47.6%. Net debt stands at $2.3B. Fundamentals as of Sep 5, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $19.48 (bear case) to $40.42 (bull case); at $59.29, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 9% fair-value upside, at −56%, SMG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 11 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.7802 per share, which is 3.0 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 21 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($42.43) versus Earnings-Based ($16.45). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture, marketing, and sale of products for lawn, garden care, and indoor and hydroponic gardening in the United States and internationally.
Full company description
The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture, marketing, and sale of products for lawn, garden care, and indoor and hydroponic gardening in the United States and internationally. The company provides lawn care products, comprising lawn fertilizers, clover and grass seed products, spreaders, and other durable products, as well as lawn-related weed, pest, and disease control products; and gardening and landscape products, which include water-soluble and continuous-release plant foods, potting mixes, garden soils, mulches and ground cover products, plant-related pest and disease control products, organic garden products, and live goods and seeding solutions. It also offers hydroponic products that help users to grow plants, flowers, and vegetables using little or no soil; lighting systems and components; insect, rodent, and weed control products for home areas; and non-selective weed killer products. The company sells its products under the Scotts, Turf Builder, Grower's Edge, EZ Seed, PatchMaster, Thick'R Lawn, GrubEx, EdgeGuard, Whirl, Wizz, Miracle-Gro, LiquaFeed, Shake "N Feed, Hyponex, Earthgro, Miracle-Gro Organic, CAN-FAN, CAN-FILTERS, EcoPlus, Bug B Gon, Nature Scapes, Ortho, Miracle-Gro Performance Organics, Miracle-Gro Organic Choice, Whitney Farms, Ortho Max, Home Defense, Mother Earth, Botanicare, General Hydroponics, CYCO, Gavita, Agrolux, HydroLogic Purification System, Gro Pro, AeroGarden, Titan, Tomcat, Ortho Weed B Gon, Roundup, Groundclear, and Alchemist brands. It serves home centers, mass merchandisers, warehouse clubs, large hardware chains, independent hardware stores, nurseries, garden centers, e-commerce platforms, and food and drug stores, as well as indoor gardening and hydroponic distributors, retailers, and growers. The company was formerly known as The Scotts Company. The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company was founded in 1868 and is headquartered in Marysville, Ohio.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company reported revenue of $3.4B in FY2025 versus $4.9B in FY2021, a compound −8.8%/yr. Reported net income was $145M in FY2025, compounding −27.0%/yr from FY2021.
SMG screens 126% overvalued. Compare with Corteva, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Scotts Miracle-Gro's biggest challenge: Overcoming young homeowners who are OK with dandelions in their lawn
- Why Is Scotts (SMG) Down 11.3% Since Last Earnings Report?
- Here's Why You Should Hold on to Scotts Miracle-Gro Stock for Now
- Urban Gardening Products Market Forecast 2026-2035 Featuring Profiles of The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company, GARDENA, LECHUZA, Jiffy Group, Clic
Peer Group
Agricultural Inputs · 175 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Agricultural Inputs median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Agricultural Inputs stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 5, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corteva, Inc CTVA | $78.57 | $27.81 | −65% |
| Nutrien Ltd NTR | C$103.71 | C$113.16 | +9% |
| Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co 000792 | ¥27.65 | ¥21.26 | −23% |
| CF Industries Holdings CF | $125.79 | $161.00 | +28% |
| SABIC Agri-Nutrients Company 2020 | 122.90 SAR | 127.31 SAR | +4% |
| Yara International ASA YAR | kr 437.20 | kr 630.39 | +44% |
| Yunnan Yuntianhua Co 600096 | ¥31.58 | ¥42.12 | +33% |
| The Mosaic Company MOS | $23.60 | $28.68 | +22% |
| Asia-potash International Investment (Guangzhou)Co.,Ltd., 000893 | ¥45.86 | ¥38.01 | −17% |
| ICL Group ICL | $5.47 | $2.98 | −46% |
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