ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd (ICL) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $6.5B · ISIN IL0002810146
What is ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd really worth?
ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd
ICL · US
A solid business, but trading 36% above our fair value of $4.29.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $2.98 to $4.29 (+44.1%) since Jul 19, 2026. Share price +13.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($5.36). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.55 – $9.69 · fair‑value band $3.21 – $5.36 · the $5.83 price screens above the $4.29 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd (ICL) currently trades at $5.83, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.29, implying the stock looks roughly 35.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $3.33 per share, and 4 of the 23 models we run sit above the $5.83 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $2.10, and 19 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd generated revenue of $7.4B at a net margin of 3.5%. Revenue grew 14.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.1%. Net debt stands at $2.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $3.21 (bear case) to $5.36 (bull case); at $5.83, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 9% fair-value upside, at −26%, ICL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.0156 per share, which is 0.4 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Economic Profit ($3.33) versus Growth DCF ($0.2700). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
ICL Group Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a specialty minerals and chemicals company worldwide. The company operates in four segments: Industrial Products, Potash, Phosphate Solutions, and Growing Solutions.
Full company description
ICL Group Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a specialty minerals and chemicals company worldwide. The company operates in four segments: Industrial Products, Potash, Phosphate Solutions, and Growing Solutions. The Industrial Products segment produces bromine out of a solution that is a by-product of the potash production process, as well as bromine-based compounds; sells various grades of potash, salt, magnesium chloride, and magnesia products; and produces and markets phosphorous-based flame retardants and other phosphorus-based products. The Potash segment produces and sells potash, salt, magnesium, electricity, and magnesium alloys; as well as chlorine and sylvinite. The Phosphate segment uses phosphate commodity products to produce specialty products; sells phosphate-based fertilizers, as well as sulphuric and green phosphoric acid, and phosphate fertilizers; and offers phosphate salts and acids. It also develops and produces functional food ingredients and phosphate additives. The Growing Solutions segment develops, manufactures, markets, and sells fertilizers based primarily on nitrogen, potash, and phosphate, including water-soluble specialty, and controlled-release fertilizers, as well as secondary nutrients, bio-stimulants, soil conditioners, seed treatment products, and adjuvants. It also offers digital platforms and technological solutions for farmers and agronomists. The company serves pharmaceutical, food, oil and gas, de-icing, building and construction, oral care, paints and coatings, energy storage, water treatment, electronics, automotive, agriculture, textiles, tire manufacturing, and healthcare industries, as well as power plants and battery producers. It sells its products through marketing companies, agents, and distributors. The company was formerly known as Israel Chemicals Ltd. and changed its name to ICL Group Ltd in May 2020. The company was incorporated in 1968 and is headquartered in Tel Aviv-Yafo, Israel.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
ICL Israel Chemicals Ltd reported revenue of $7.2B in FY2025 versus $7.0B in FY2021, a compound +0.7%/yr. Reported net income was $226M in FY2025, compounding −26.7%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +2.3 % · buybacks/dilution −0.2 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
ICL screens 36% overvalued. Compare with Corteva, Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- ICL Group (ICL) Earnings Beat Brings Its Valuation Back Into Focus
- Bullish Two Hundred Day Moving Average Cross - ICL
- ICL Group Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
- ICL Group Ltd (ICL) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Industrial Products Performance ...
Peer Group
Agricultural Inputs · 175 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Agricultural Inputs median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Agricultural Inputs stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corteva, Inc CTVA | $78.57 | $27.81 | −65% |
| Nutrien Ltd NTR | C$103.71 | C$113.16 | +9% |
| Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co 000792 | ¥27.65 | ¥21.26 | −23% |
| CF Industries Holdings CF | $125.79 | $161.00 | +28% |
| SABIC Agri-Nutrients Company 2020 | 122.90 SAR | 127.31 SAR | +4% |
| Yara International ASA YAR | kr 437.20 | kr 630.39 | +44% |
| Yunnan Yuntianhua Co 600096 | ¥31.58 | ¥42.12 | +33% |
| The Mosaic Company MOS | $23.60 | $28.68 | +22% |
| Asia-potash International Investment (Guangzhou)Co.,Ltd., 000893 | ¥45.86 | ¥38.01 | −17% |
| Coromandel International Limited COROMANDEL | ₹2,039 | ₹817.06 | −60% |
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