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CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · US · Market cap $18.3B · ISIN US1252691001

What is CF Industries Holdings Inc really worth?

CI CF Industries Holdings Inc logo CF Industries Holdings Inc CF · US
Price$137.81
Fair Value$161.00
Upside+16.8%
Quality80/100

A strong business, trading 14% below our fair value of $161.00.

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Strengths

✓Highly profitable · 23.7% net margin
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (9/15)
✓Wide moat 80/100

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +11.4 %/yr)
!Weak on dividend: 29 out of 100

For context

·1.45% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range $120.02 – $201.26

Fair value as of: Aug 31, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 5 days ago

Share price +16.7% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety.
  • The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$139.27 $39.23 Fair Value $161.00 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $39.23 – $139.27 · fair‑value band $120.02 – $201.26 · the $137.81 price screens below the $161.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF) currently trades at $137.81, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $161.00, implying the stock looks roughly 14.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 80/100 (high quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $171.14 per share, and 13 of the 26 models we run sit above the $137.81 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $21.10, and 13 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, CF Industries Holdings Inc generated revenue of $7.4B at a net margin of 23.7%. Revenue grew 19.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 27.3%. Net debt stands at $2.0B. Fundamentals as of Aug 31, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $120.02 (bear case) to $201.26 (bull case); at $137.81, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 84% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 4% fair-value upside, at 17%, CF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $6.18 per share, which is 3.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $124.73 $197.92 $309.25 79
Growth DCF $127.10 $192.04 $284.89 78
Owner Earnings $95.34 $152.32 $239.00 75
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $124.73 $197.92 $309.25 79
Owner Earnings $95.34 $152.32 $239.00 75
5Y Revenue Exit $68.34 $99.80 $138.17 73
5Y EBITDA Exit $130.52 $215.85 $314.74 74
5Y P/E Exit $108.21 $174.21 $242.75 70
10Y Revenue Exit $86.09 $119.54 $161.56 67
10Y EBITDA Exit $127.17 $200.01 $296.05 68
10Y P/E Exit $112.96 $171.14 $241.21 64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $64.40 $197.99 $262.99 65
Lynch FV $42.69 $60.99 $79.29 61
PEG = 1.0 $42.69 $60.99 $79.29 57
EPV $111.25 $131.13 $148.52 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $19.48 $40.51 $64.27 66
DDM Multi-Stage $19.48 $32.04 $42.52 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $120.75 $161.00 $201.26 63
P/S Multiple $51.87 $69.17 $86.46 58
P/B Multiple $70.86 $94.47 $118.09 55
EV/EBIT $153.61 $207.49 $261.37 66
EV/EBITDA $151.27 $204.37 $257.47 67
EV/Revenue $40.39 $61.14 $81.89 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $15.75 $21.10 $31.49 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $127.10 $192.04 $284.89 78
Rev-Margin DCF $68.34 $101.46 $140.08 73
Economic Profit
Residual Income $66.50 $95.27 $771.87 64
ROIC Compounder $118.69 $149.35 $183.11 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $101.86 $145.52 $189.17 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($171.14) versus Asset-Based ($21.10). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 12.6
P/S ratio 2.59 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $10.94 price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.6
Dividend yield 1.5% payout 18.3%
Net margin 20.5% FY2025
Return on equity 27.3% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 21.1% avg 5y
Operating margin 33.6% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $7.4B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +19.4% 3y avg −14.1%
EPS growth (YoY) +115%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $1.8B FY2025
Net debt $2.0B FY2025 · ≈ 1.1 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 31, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 80/100

Of which business quality 77 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 79

Profitability 63
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 70
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 86
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 71
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 76
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 70
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 75
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 97
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

CF Industries Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production of ammonia in North America, Europe, and internationally. It operates through Ammonia, Granular Urea, UAN, AN, and Other segments.

Full company description

CF Industries Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production of ammonia in North America, Europe, and internationally. It operates through Ammonia, Granular Urea, UAN, AN, and Other segments. The company offers ammonia products; nitrogen products, such as granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate solution, and ammonium nitrate; diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, and nitric acid products. It serves cooperatives, retailers, independent fertilizer distributors, traders, wholesalers, and industrial users. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Northbrook, Illinois.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

CF Industries Holdings Inc reported revenue of $7.1B in FY2025 versus $6.5B in FY2021, a compound +2.0%/yr. Reported net income was $1.5B in FY2025, compounding +12.2%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$7.1B
Latest YoY
+19.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−14.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+11.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (24Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.8%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, adjusted) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+35.0% (33.5 + 1.5)
Revenue +2.0%/yr
FY21 $6.5B
FY22 $11.2B
FY23 $6.6B
FY24 $5.9B
FY25 $7.1B
Net income +12.2%/yr
FY21 $917M
FY22 $3.3B
FY23 $1.5B
FY24 $1.2B
FY25 $1.5B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +6.7 % p.a.
Revenue per share +7.5 %

of which total revenue +4.0 % · buybacks/dilution +3.4 %

EBIT margin −1.0 %
Tax rate +2.2 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −1.9 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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CF Industries Holdings Inc · Fair Value
$161.00 +14%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "CF Industries Holdings Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CF

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Agricultural Inputs · 175 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 80 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +17% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 27% · Top 25%
Return on assets 11% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 24% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 34% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 19% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.5% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.67× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Agricultural Inputs median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 12.6× · Cheaper than median
P/B 3.78× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 2.47× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 10.2× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 5.7× · Cheaper than median
PEG 3.59× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE56 · sector 24
FUTURE97 · sector 45
PAST100 · sector 25
HEALTH67 · sector 97
DIVIDEND29 · sector 40

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Frequently asked questions

Is CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 31, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $161.00 versus a price of $137.81, about +17% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CF?
Our model-based fair value for CF Industries Holdings Inc is $161.00 (as of Aug 31, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $137.81.
What is the quality score of CF?
CF Industries Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 80/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF)?
CF Industries Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $7.4B (latest available figure, as of Aug 31, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of CF?
The net profit margin of CF Industries Holdings Inc is about 23.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 23.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does CF Industries Holdings Inc pay a dividend?
CF Industries Holdings Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.45% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 31, 2026).
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