The Mosaic Company (MOS) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $7.2B · ISIN US61945C1036
What is The Mosaic Company really worth?
The Mosaic Company
MOS · US
A solid business, trading 11% below our fair value of $28.68.
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price +12.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety.
- The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $19.82 – $69.80 · fair‑value band $21.69 – $33.50 · the $25.49 price screens below the $28.68 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
The Mosaic Company (MOS) currently trades at $25.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $28.68, implying the stock looks roughly 11.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $28.92 per share, and 9 of the 16 models we run sit above the $25.49 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $4.88, and 7 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, The Mosaic Company generated revenue of $12.4B at a net margin of 0.4%. Revenue grew 14.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.6%. Net debt stands at $5.0B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $21.69 (bear case) to $33.50 (bull case); at $25.49, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 4% fair-value upside, at 13%, MOS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 17 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($28.92) versus Economic Profit ($4.88). Highest evidence: Residual Income (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
The Mosaic Company, through its subsidiaries, produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. It operates in three segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes.
Full company description
The Mosaic Company, through its subsidiaries, produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. It operates in three segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes. The company owns and operates mines and production facilities, which produce concentrated phosphate crop nutrients and phosphate-based animal feed ingredients, as well as concentrated phosphate crop nutrients, such as diammonium phosphate, monoammonium phosphate, and MicroEssentials, a value-added ammoniated phosphate product. It also mines, processes, and sells potash to crop nutrient manufacturers, distributors, retailers, and to customers for industrial use; and owns and operates mines, chemical plants, crop nutrient blending and bagging facilities, port terminals and warehouses, which produce and sell concentrated phosphate and potash-based crop nutrients, and phosphate-based animal feed ingredients. In addition, the company produces a double sulfate of potash magnesia product under the K-Mag brand; and purchases phosphate, potash, and nitrogen products to produce blended crop nutrients. Further, it offers triple superphosphate, single superphosphate, and dicalcium phosphate; feed phosphate under the Biofos and Nexfos brands; potash for de-icing and as a water softener regenerant; and phosphogypsum. The company sells its products to wholesale distributors, retail chains, cooperatives, independent retailers, and national accounts through its sales force. It also exports its products. The company operates in the United States, Brazil, China, Canada, Paraguay, Argentina, Japan, Colombia, India, Australia, Peru, Mexico, Honduras, the Dominican Republic, Indonesia, and internationally. The Mosaic Company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Tampa, Florida.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
The Mosaic Company reported revenue of $12.1B in FY2025 versus $12.4B in FY2021, a compound −0.6%/yr. Reported net income was $541M in FY2025, compounding −24.1%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +4.4 % · buybacks/dilution +1.2 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Why Is Mosaic (MOS) Up 10.1% Since Last Earnings Report?
- MOSAIC ANNOUNCES QUARTERLY DIVIDEND OF $0.22 PER SHARE
- MOS Launches Enzyme-Based Residue Management Product
- Mosaic Biosciences Launches New Product to Accelerate Crop Residue Breakdown and Improve Spring Field Readiness
Peer Group
Agricultural Inputs · 175 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Agricultural Inputs median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Agricultural Inputs stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corteva, Inc CTVA | $78.57 | $27.81 | −65% |
| Nutrien Ltd NTR | C$103.71 | C$113.16 | +9% |
| Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co 000792 | ¥27.65 | ¥21.26 | −23% |
| CF Industries Holdings CF | $125.79 | $161.00 | +28% |
| SABIC Agri-Nutrients Company 2020 | 122.90 SAR | 127.31 SAR | +4% |
| Yara International ASA YAR | kr 437.20 | kr 630.39 | +44% |
| Yunnan Yuntianhua Co 600096 | ¥31.58 | ¥42.12 | +33% |
| Asia-potash International Investment (Guangzhou)Co.,Ltd., 000893 | ¥45.86 | ¥38.01 | −17% |
| ICL Group ICL | $5.47 | $2.98 | −46% |
| Coromandel International Limited COROMANDEL | ₹2,039 | ₹817.06 | −60% |
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