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Red 5 Limited (REDLF) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · US · Market cap $3.5B · ISIN AU0000355588

What is Red 5 Limited really worth?

R5 Red 5 Limited logo Red 5 Limited REDLF · US
Price$5.00
Fair Value$2.34
Upside−53.3%
Quality53/100

A solid business, but trading 114% above our fair value of $2.34.

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Strengths

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +46.0 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 5.3% net margin
!Mixed vs. peers (8/14)
!Moderate moat 48/100
!Weak on past: 17 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 28 out of 100

For context

·1.40% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range $1.75 – $2.92

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Share price +59.0% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.92). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$5.00 $0.3245 Fair Value $2.34 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.3245 – $5.00 · fair‑value band $1.75 – $2.92 · the $5.00 price screens above the $2.34 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Red 5 Limited (REDLF) currently trades at $5.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.34, implying the stock looks roughly 113.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $9.86 per share, and 13 of the 26 models we run sit above the $5.00 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $0.5400, and 13 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Red 5 Limited generated revenue of $1.6B at a net margin of 5.3%. Revenue grew 20.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $576M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $1.75 (bear case) to $2.92 (bull case); at $5.00, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −53%, REDLF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $4.23 $6.21 $12.40 74
EPV $2.57 $2.89 $3.17 74
Growth DCF $4.01 $7.13 $12.15 73
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $4.23 $6.21 $12.40 74
Owner Earnings $4.68 $9.70 $19.85 69
5Y Revenue Exit $2.75 $4.11 $6.94 69
5Y EBITDA Exit $4.94 $8.54 $15.61 70
5Y P/E Exit $3.76 $7.53 $12.63 66
10Y Revenue Exit $3.17 $5.71 $7.15 65
10Y EBITDA Exit $4.79 $10.32 $20.07 62
10Y P/E Exit $3.95 $7.83 $14.13 59
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $1.56 $10.86 $15.24 61
Lynch FV $5.61 $8.02 $10.42 59
PEG = 1.0 $5.61 $8.02 $10.42 55
EPV $2.57 $2.89 $3.17 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $0.3100 $0.6200 $0.9400 64
DDM Multi-Stage $0.3100 $0.5400 $0.6600 65
Multiples
P/E Multiple $2.92 $3.89 $4.87 63
P/S Multiple $1.56 $2.08 $2.60 58
P/B Multiple $2.92 $3.89 $4.87 55
EV/EBIT $3.32 $4.24 $5.17 66
EV/EBITDA $5.08 $6.59 $8.09 67
EV/Revenue $2.00 $2.63 $3.25 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.9700 $1.29 $1.93 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $4.01 $7.13 $12.15 73
Rev-Margin DCF $2.97 $4.63 $8.13 68
Economic Profit
Residual Income $1.75 $2.05 $4.37 69
ROIC Compounder $3.20 $4.38 $5.27 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $6.90 $9.86 $12.82 65

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($9.86) versus Dividend Discount ($0.5400). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (74).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 100.0
P/S ratio 16.5 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $0.0500 price ÷ EPS = P/E 100.0
Dividend yield 1.4% payout 140%
Net margin 16.5% FY2025
Return on equity 4.3% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 1.1% avg 5y
Operating margin 24.1% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $1.6B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +20.4% 3y avg +106%
EPS growth (YoY) +119%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $239M FY2025
Net cash $576M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 53/100

Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 75

Profitability 49
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 100
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 72
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 97
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 31
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 89
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Vault Minerals Limited engages in the exploration, mine development, mine operations and the sale of gold and gold/copper concentrate in Australia and Canada.

Full company description

Vault Minerals Limited engages in the exploration, mine development, mine operations and the sale of gold and gold/copper concentrate in Australia and Canada. The company operates through Leonora Operations (King of the Hills and Darlot operations), Mount Monger Operation, Deflector Region (Deflector and Rothsay operations), and Sugar Zone Operation segments. The company was formerly known as Red 5 Limited and changed its name to Vault Minerals Limited in September 2024. Vault Minerals Limited was incorporated in 1995 and is based in South Perth, Australia.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Red 5 Limited reported revenue of $1.4B in FY2025 versus $173M in FY2021, a compound +69.5%/yr. Reported net income was $237M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 76/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$1.4B
Latest YoY
+131.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+106.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+46.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (28Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+45.2%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+74.6% (73.2 + 1.4)
Revenue +69.5%/yr
FY21 $173M
FY22 $163M
FY23 $423M
FY24 $620M
FY25 $1.4B
Net income
FY21 −$42.9M
FY22 −$28.5M
FY23 −$8.7M
FY24 −$5.4M
FY25 $237M

REDLF screens 114% overvalued. Compare with Newmont Corporation →

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Red 5 Limited · Fair Value
$2.34 −114%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Red 5 Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/REDLF

Peer Group

Gold · 245 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 53 · Above median
Fair Value upside −53% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 4% · Above median
Return on assets 10% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 24% · Below median
Revenue growth 20% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.4% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.05× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Gold median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 100.0× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 1.76× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 2.25× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 14.7× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 4.5× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 0
FUTURE100 · sector 100
PAST17 · sector 2
HEALTH97 · sector 98
DIVIDEND28 · sector 20

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Newmont Corporation NEMCL $128.00 $112.82 −12%
Zijin Mining Group 601899 ¥32.21 ¥39.42 +22%
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM C$268.76 C$213.40 −21%
Barrick Mining Corporation B $41.23 $50.66 +23%
Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV $271.31 $96.63 −64%
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM C$201.40 C$56.05 −72%
AngloGold Ashanti plc AU $97.92 $88.63 −9%
Kinross Gold Corporation KGC $32.51 $34.62 +6%
Royal Gold, Inc RGLD $262.85 $93.56 −64%
Northern Star Resources Limited NST A$23.19 A$15.98 −31%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Red 5 Limited (REDLF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.34 versus a price of $5.00, about −53% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of REDLF?
Our model-based fair value for Red 5 Limited is $2.34 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $5.00.
What is the quality score of REDLF?
Red 5 Limited has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Red 5 Limited (REDLF)?
Red 5 Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.6B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of REDLF?
The net profit margin of Red 5 Limited is about 5.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 5.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Red 5 Limited pay a dividend?
Red 5 Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.40% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).
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