Provident Financial Services, Inc (PFS) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $3.1B
Provident Financial Services, Inc
PFS · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated today
Share price +6.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 25% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($23.58). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $11.84 – $25.28 · fair‑value band $14.14 – $23.58 · the $25.01 price screens above the $18.86 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Provident Financial Services, Inc (PFS) currently trades at $25.01, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $18.86, implying the stock looks roughly 24.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Provident Financial Services, Inc generated revenue of $886M at a net margin of 34.6%. Revenue grew 9.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.1%. Net debt stands at $2.3B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $14.14 (bear case) to $23.58 (bull case); at $25.01, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 65% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 47% fair-value upside, at -25%, PFS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($29.05) versus Asset-Based ($14.57). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 74
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Provident Financial Services, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Provident Bank that provides various banking products and services to individuals, families, and businesses in the United States.
Full company description
Provident Financial Services, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Provident Bank that provides various banking products and services to individuals, families, and businesses in the United States. Its deposit products include savings, checking, interest-bearing checking, money market deposit, and certificate of deposit accounts, as well as IRA products. The company's loan portfolio comprises commercial real estate loans that are secured by properties, such as multi-family apartment buildings, retail and industrial properties, and office buildings; commercial business loans; fixed-rate and adjustable-rate mortgage loans collateralized by one- to four-family residential real estate properties; residential mortgage loans; commercial construction loans; and consumer loans consisting of home equity loans, home equity lines of credit, personal loans and unsecured lines of credit, and auto and recreational vehicle loans. It also offers cash management, remote deposit capture, payroll origination, escrow account management, and online and mobile banking services; and business credit cards. In addition, the company provides wealth management services comprising investment management, trust and estate administration, financial planning, and tax compliance and planning; and insurance agency operations. Further, it sells insurance and investment products, including annuities; and manages and sells real estate properties acquired through foreclosure. The company was founded in 1839 and is headquartered in Jersey City, New Jersey.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Provident Financial Services, Inc reported revenue of $1.4B in FY2025 versus $489M in FY2021, a compound +29.7%/yr. Reported net income was $291M in FY2025, compounding +14.8%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +13.6 pp · buybacks/dilution −6.4 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
PFS screens 25% overvalued. Compare with PT Bank Central Asia Tbk →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Provident Financial Services Inc (PFS) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Revenues and ...
- Provident Financial Services, Inc. Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend
- Is Provident Financial Services (PFS) Undervalued On Its Earnings Beat?
- Provident Financial (PFS) Q2 Earnings: Taking a Look at Key Metrics Versus Estimates
Peer Group
Banks - Regional · 1086 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT Bank Central Asia Tbk BBCA | 6,350 IDR | 4,637 IDR | -27% |
| KB Financial Group 105560 | 168,100 KRW | 220,258 KRW | +31% |
| PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk BBRI | 3,110 IDR | 3,792 IDR | +22% |
| PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk BMRI | 4,130 IDR | 6,067 IDR | +47% |
| Banco Bradesco S.A BBD | 5,120 ARS | 8,400 ARS | +64% |
| Shinhan Financial Group 055550 | 103,800 KRW | 146,032 KRW | +41% |
| Hana Financial Group 086790 | 127,900 KRW | 210,506 KRW | +65% |
| Lloyds Banking Group LYG | 4,138 ARS | 8,275 ARS | +100% |
| Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam, VCB | 59,500 VND | 45,959 VND | -23% |
| Woori Financial Group 316140 | 33,000 KRW | 60,758 KRW | +84% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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