Pan African Resources PLC (PAF) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · GB · Market cap 1.9B GBX · ISIN GB0004300496
What is Pan African Resources PLC really worth?
A solid business, but trading 124% above our fair value of £0.6100.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 20, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 20, 2026, revised from £0.8300 to £0.6100 (−26.5%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +31.3% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (£0.9800). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (£0.3900 to £0.9800) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £0.1099 – £1.83 · fair‑value band £0.3900 – £0.9800 · the £1.37 price screens above the £0.6100 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
Analysis
Pan African Resources PLC (PAF) currently trades at £1.37, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £0.6100, implying the stock looks roughly 124.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of £1.19 per share, and 1 of the 17 models we run sit above the £1.37 price. Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at £0.1200, and 16 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Pan African Resources PLC generated revenue of £838M at a net margin of 28.8%. Revenue grew 157.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 43.6%. Net debt stands at £144M. Fundamentals as of Aug 20, 2026
Our scenario range runs from £0.3900 (bear case) to £0.9800 (bull case); at £1.37, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −55%, PAF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 12 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly £0.0681 per share, which is 11.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 17 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (£1.19) versus DCF Models (£0.1200). Highest evidence: EPV (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Pan African Resources PLC engages in the mining, extraction, production, and sale of gold in South Africa. Its flagship projects include the Barberton Mines that consists of three underground mines, including Fairview, Sheba, and Consort located in the Barberton Greenstone Belt; and Elikhulu tailings retreatment plant in Southern Africa.
Full company description
Pan African Resources PLC engages in the mining, extraction, production, and sale of gold in South Africa. Its flagship projects include the Barberton Mines that consists of three underground mines, including Fairview, Sheba, and Consort located in the Barberton Greenstone Belt; and Elikhulu tailings retreatment plant in Southern Africa. Pan African Resources PLC is headquartered in Johannesburg, South Africa.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Pan African Resources PLC reported revenue of $540M in FY2025 versus $369M in FY2021, a compound +10.0%/yr. Reported net income was $142M in FY2025, compounding +17.3%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +1.4 % · buybacks/dilution −0.6 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
PAF screens 124% overvalued. Compare with Newmont Corporation →
Peer Group
Gold · 245 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Gold median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 20, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newmont Corporation NEMCL | $128.00 | $112.82 | −12% |
| Zijin Mining Group 601899 | ¥32.21 | ¥39.42 | +22% |
| Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM | C$268.76 | C$213.40 | −21% |
| Barrick Mining Corporation B | $41.23 | $50.66 | +23% |
| Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV | $271.31 | $96.63 | −64% |
| Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM | C$201.40 | C$56.05 | −72% |
| AngloGold Ashanti plc AU | $97.92 | $88.63 | −9% |
| Kinross Gold Corporation KGC | $32.51 | $34.62 | +6% |
| Royal Gold, Inc RGLD | $262.85 | $93.56 | −64% |
| Northern Star Resources Limited NST | A$23.19 | A$15.98 | −31% |
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