Old National Bancorp (ONB) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $10.1B
Old National Bancorp
ONB · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated today
Share price +2.9% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 34% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($22.25). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $10.91 – $27.29 · fair‑value band $13.35 – $22.25 · the $27.07 price screens above the $17.81 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Old National Bancorp (ONB) currently trades at $27.07, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $17.81, implying the stock looks roughly 34.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Old National Bancorp generated revenue of $2.5B at a net margin of 30.3%. Revenue grew 46.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.1%. Net debt stands at $5.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $13.35 (bear case) to $22.25 (bull case); at $27.07, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 43% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 47% fair-value upside, at -34%, ONB screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 4 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($22.52) versus Asset-Based ($14.73). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 36 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 71
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Old National Bancorp operates as the bank holding company for Old National Bank that provides consumer and commercial banking services in the United States. It accepts deposit accounts, such as noninterest-bearing demand, interest-bearing checking and negotiable order of withdrawal, savings and money market, and time deposits.
Full company description
Old National Bancorp operates as the bank holding company for Old National Bank that provides consumer and commercial banking services in the United States. It accepts deposit accounts, such as noninterest-bearing demand, interest-bearing checking and negotiable order of withdrawal, savings and money market, and time deposits. The company also offers loans, including home equity lines of credit, residential real estate loans, and consumer loans, as well as loans to commercial clients comprising commercial loans, commercial real estate loans, agricultural loans, letters of credit, and lease financing. In addition, it offers debit and automated teller machine cards, telephone access and online banking, and other electronic and mobile banking services. Further, the company offers private banking, wealth management, trust, investment advisory, brokerage, and foreign currency services; treasury management, merchant, and capital markets services for businesses; and community development lending and equity investment solutions. Old National Bancorp was founded in 1834 and is headquartered in Evansville, Indiana.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Old National Bancorp reported revenue of $3.7B in FY2025 versus $853M in FY2021, a compound +44.4%/yr. Reported net income was $669M in FY2025, compounding +24.6%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +19.5 pp · buybacks/dilution −13.0 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
ONB screens 34% overvalued. Compare with PT Bank Central Asia Tbk →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Old National Bancorp (ONB) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Performance and Strategic Growth
- Old National Bancorp (ONB) Could Be 6% Undervalued On Charge Offs And Buybacks
- Old National Bancorp Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
- Old National Bancorp (ONB) Q2 Earnings: Taking a Look at Key Metrics Versus Estimates
Peer Group
Banks - Regional · 1086 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT Bank Central Asia Tbk BBCA | 6,350 IDR | 4,637 IDR | -27% |
| KB Financial Group 105560 | 168,100 KRW | 220,258 KRW | +31% |
| PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk BBRI | 3,110 IDR | 3,792 IDR | +22% |
| PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk BMRI | 4,130 IDR | 6,067 IDR | +47% |
| Banco Bradesco S.A BBD | 5,120 ARS | 8,400 ARS | +64% |
| Shinhan Financial Group 055550 | 103,800 KRW | 146,032 KRW | +41% |
| Hana Financial Group 086790 | 127,900 KRW | 210,506 KRW | +65% |
| Lloyds Banking Group LYG | 4,138 ARS | 8,275 ARS | +100% |
| Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam, VCB | 59,500 VND | 45,959 VND | -23% |
| Woori Financial Group 316140 | 33,000 KRW | 60,758 KRW | +84% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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