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Natwest Group PLC (NWG) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · US · Market cap $66.7B · ISIN US6390572070

What is Natwest Group PLC really worth?

NG Natwest Group PLC logo Natwest Group PLC NWG · US
Price$18.95
Fair Value$15.74
Upside−16.9%
Quality64/100

A solid business, but trading 20% above our fair value of $15.74.

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Strengths

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +17.6 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 36.9% net margin
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓Wide moat 67/100

Risks

!Mixed vs. peers (7/15)
!Weak on valuation: 11 out of 100

For context

·5.22% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range $11.81 – $19.67

Fair value as of: Aug 20, 2026

From 6 valuation models · updated 16 days ago

Share price −0.9% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$19.42 $3.61 Fair Value $15.74 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.61 – $19.42 · fair‑value band $11.81 – $19.67 · the $18.95 price screens above the $15.74 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.

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Analysis

Natwest Group PLC (NWG) currently trades at $18.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15.74, implying the stock looks roughly 20.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $14.99 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the $18.95 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $6.73, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Natwest Group PLC generated revenue of $16.3B at a net margin of 36.9%. Revenue grew 7.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $13.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 20, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $11.81 (bear case) to $19.67 (bull case); at $18.95, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 56% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −17%, NWG screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $1.05 per share, which is 6.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income $10.36 $12.85 $28.36 70
Gordon GGM $5.48 $6.73 $8.05 69
DDM Multi-Stage $5.48 $7.33 $9.62 67
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $5.48 $6.73 $8.05 69
DDM Multi-Stage $5.48 $7.33 $9.62 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $14.29 $19.05 $23.81 63
P/B Multiple $11.24 $14.99 $18.73 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $5.35 $7.17 $10.70 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $10.36 $12.85 $28.36 70

Widest divergence: Multiples ($14.99) versus Dividend Discount ($6.73). Highest evidence: Residual Income (70).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 10.1
P/S ratio 2.00 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $1.87 price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.1
Dividend yield 5.2% payout 52.9%
Net margin 19.8% FY2025
Return on equity 14.1% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 0.8% avg 5y
Operating margin 50.3% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $16.3B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +7.5% 3y avg +22.2%
EPS growth (YoY) +15.6%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $5.8B FY2025
Net cash $13.5B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 64/100

Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 77

Profitability 33
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 65
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 73
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 40
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 87
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 70
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 74
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 90
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

NatWest Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides banking and financial products and services in the United Kingdom and internationally. It operates through the Retail Banking, Private Banking, and Commercial & Institutional segments.

Full company description

NatWest Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides banking and financial products and services in the United Kingdom and internationally. It operates through the Retail Banking, Private Banking, and Commercial & Institutional segments. The Retail Banking segment offers a range of banking products and related financial services, such as current accounts, mortgages, personal unsecured lending, and personal deposits, as well as mobile and online banking services. Its Private Banking segment provides banking, lending, and wealth management products for high-net-worth individuals and their business interests. The Commercial & Institutional segment consists of customer businesses under business banking, commercial mid-market, and corporates and institutions; and offers banking operations services in the Channel Islands, Isle of Man, Gibraltar, and Luxembourg, as well as products and solutions for businesses comprising start-ups, corporates, and large institutions. The company was formerly known as The Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc and changed its name to NatWest Group plc in July 2020. NatWest Group plc was founded in 1727 and is headquartered in Edinburgh, the United Kingdom.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Natwest Group PLC reported revenue of $29.5B in FY2025 versus $12.0B in FY2021, a compound +25.1%/yr. Reported net income was $5.8B in FY2025, compounding +15.6%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$29.5B
Latest YoY
+3.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+22.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+17.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (25Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.8%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+60.3% (55.1 + 5.2)
Revenue +25.1%/yr
FY21 $12.0B
FY22 $16.1B
FY23 $24.8B
FY24 $28.6B
FY25 $29.5B
Net income +15.6%/yr
FY21 $3.3B
FY22 $3.6B
FY23 $4.6B
FY24 $4.8B
FY25 $5.8B

NWG screens 20% overvalued. Compare with DBS Group →

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Natwest Group PLC · Fair Value
$15.74 −20%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Natwest Group PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NWG

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Banks - Regional · 1071 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −17% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 14% · Top 25%
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 37% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 50% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 8% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 5.2% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 1.40× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 10.1× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.57× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 4.11× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 11.5× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 4.7× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
PEG 2.53× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE11 · sector 33
FUTURE38 · sector 45
PAST56 · sector 41
HEALTH30 · sector 85
DIVIDEND100 · sector 51

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 20, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
DBS Group D05 75.65 SGD 40.48 SGD −46%
China Merchants Bank Co 3968 HK$47.96 HK$76.51 +60%
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.78 €5.66 −17%
HDFC Bank Limited HDB $23.17 $24.12 +4%
BNP Paribas SA BNP €102.56 €144.64 +41%
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €84.71 €77.62 −8%
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $10.74 $9.69 −10%
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,443 ₹835.21 −42%
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 31.07 SGD 19.80 SGD −36%
CaixaBank, S.A CABK €13.52 €8.85 −35%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Natwest Group PLC (NWG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 20, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $15.74 versus a price of $18.95, about −17% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NWG?
Our model-based fair value for Natwest Group PLC is $15.74 (as of Aug 20, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $18.95.
What is the quality score of NWG?
Natwest Group PLC has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Natwest Group PLC (NWG)?
Natwest Group PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $16.3B (latest available figure, as of Aug 20, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of NWG?
The net profit margin of Natwest Group PLC is about 36.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 36.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Natwest Group PLC pay a dividend?
Natwest Group PLC currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.22% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 20, 2026).
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