Nufarm Ltd (NUF) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · AU · Market cap A$1.0B (≈ $754M) · ISIN AU000000NUF3
What is Nufarm Ltd really worth?
Below-average quality, and trading another 105% above our fair value of A$1.56.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Sep 5, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Sep 5, 2026, revised from A$0.7800 to A$1.56 (+100.0%) since Aug 27, 2026. Share price +4.9% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$2.78). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$1.82 – A$6.58 · fair‑value band A$1.56 – A$2.78 · the A$3.20 price screens above the A$1.56 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
Analysis
Nufarm Ltd (NUF) currently trades at A$3.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$1.56, implying the stock looks roughly 105.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of A$3.68 per share, and 3 of the 13 models we run sit above the A$3.20 price. Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at A$0.2200, and 10 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Nufarm Ltd generated revenue of A$3.3B at a net margin of −4.7%. Revenue grew 3.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −7.2%. Net debt stands at A$824M. Fundamentals as of Sep 5, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$1.56 (bear case) to A$2.78 (bull case); at A$3.20, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 79% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 9% fair-value upside, at −51%, NUF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (A$3.68) versus Growth DCF (A$0.2200). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 76
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Nufarm Limited, together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and sells crop protection solutions and seed technologies in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, North America, and the Asia Pacific. The company operates through Crop Protection and Seed Technologies segments.
Full company description
Nufarm Limited, together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and sells crop protection solutions and seed technologies in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, North America, and the Asia Pacific. The company operates through Crop Protection and Seed Technologies segments. The company offers herbicides, insecticides, and fungicides that help growers protect crops against weeds, pests, and diseases. It also operates base seeds, bioenergy, omega-3 and seed treatment platforms, as well as sells seeds and oil-based products. It also focuses on crops, such as cereals; corn; soybean; pasture, turf, and ornamentals; and trees, nuts, vines, and vegetables. In addition, the company provides seed treatment products for the protection and treatment of damage caused by insects, fungus, and disease. Further, it distributes sunflower, sorghum, carinata, energy cane and canola seeds. The company was founded in 1916 and is headquartered in Laverton North, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Nufarm Ltd reported revenue of A$3.4B in FY2025 versus A$3.2B in FY2021, a compound +1.7%/yr. Reported net income was −A$165M in FY2025.
NUF screens 105% overvalued. Compare with Corteva, Inc →
Peer Group
Agricultural Inputs · 175 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Agricultural Inputs median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Agricultural Inputs stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 5, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corteva, Inc CTVA | $78.57 | $27.81 | −65% |
| Nutrien Ltd NTR | C$103.71 | C$113.16 | +9% |
| Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co 000792 | ¥27.65 | ¥21.26 | −23% |
| CF Industries Holdings CF | $125.79 | $161.00 | +28% |
| SABIC Agri-Nutrients Company 2020 | 122.90 SAR | 127.31 SAR | +4% |
| Yara International ASA YAR | kr 437.20 | kr 630.39 | +44% |
| Yunnan Yuntianhua Co 600096 | ¥31.58 | ¥42.12 | +33% |
| The Mosaic Company MOS | $23.60 | $28.68 | +22% |
| Asia-potash International Investment (Guangzhou)Co.,Ltd., 000893 | ¥45.86 | ¥38.01 | −17% |
| ICL Group ICL | $5.47 | $2.98 | −46% |
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