Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NCLH) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $8.9B · ISIN USG667211043
What is Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd really worth?
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd
NCLH · US
Below-average quality, trading 23% below our fair value of $20.28.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Sep 2, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Share price −22.3% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (36/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety.
- The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $10.38 – $33.71 · fair‑value band $15.21 – $25.35 · the $15.59 price screens below the $20.28 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.
Analysis
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NCLH) currently trades at $15.59, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $20.28, implying the stock looks roughly 23.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $31.02 per share, and 9 of the 15 models we run sit above the $15.59 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $3.22, and 6 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd generated revenue of $10.0B at a net margin of 5.7%. Revenue grew 9.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 29.5%. Net debt stands at $14.4B. Fundamentals as of Sep 2, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $15.21 (bear case) to $25.35 (bull case); at $15.59, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at 30%, NCLH screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.8391 per share, which is 4.1 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($31.02) versus Asset-Based ($3.22). Highest evidence: Residual Income (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 10
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a cruise company in North America, Europe, the Asia-Pacific, and internationally. It offers itineraries to destinations, such as Europe, Asia, Australia, New Zealand, South America, Africa, Canada, Bermuda, the Caribbean, and Alaska; and inter-island itinerary in Hawaii.
Full company description
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a cruise company in North America, Europe, the Asia-Pacific, and internationally. It offers itineraries to destinations, such as Europe, Asia, Australia, New Zealand, South America, Africa, Canada, Bermuda, the Caribbean, and Alaska; and inter-island itinerary in Hawaii. The company also provides features, amenities, and activities, including various accommodations, dining venues, bars and lounges, spas, casino and retail shopping areas, and entertainment choices; shore excursions at each port of call, and air transportation and hotel packages for stays before or after a voyage. It offers its products and services under the Norwegian Cruise Line, Oceania Cruises, and Regent Seven Seas Cruises brands. The company was founded in 1966 and is based in Miami, Florida.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd reported revenue of $9.8B in FY2025 versus $648M in FY2021, a compound +97.3%/yr. Reported net income was $423M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Travel Services · 90 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Travel Services median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Travel Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 2, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Booking Holdings BKNG | $202.56 | $152.94 | −24% |
| Airbnb, Inc ABNB | $184.40 | $85.66 | −54% |
| Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd RCL | $268.74 | $215.19 | −20% |
| Viking Holdings VIK | $85.03 | $43.68 | −49% |
| Carnival Corporation CCL | $24.76 | $31.36 | +27% |
| Expedia Group EXPE | $303.14 | $248.63 | −18% |
| Trip.com Group TCOM | $45.14 | $89.35 | +98% |
| Global Business Travel Group GBTG | $9.44 | $5.04 | −47% |
| Travel + Leisure Co TNL | $66.40 | $26.57 | −60% |
| MakeMyTrip Limited MMYT | $60.31 | $19.30 | −68% |
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