Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NCLH) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 21, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd stock $20.28, price $15.59, upside +30.1%, quality 34 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $10.38 – $29.07 · fair‑value band $15.21 – $25.35 · the $15.59 price screens below the $20.28 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
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Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a cruise company in North America, Europe, the Asia-Pacific, and internationally.
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It offers itineraries to destinations, such as Europe, Asia, Australia, New Zealand, South America, Africa, Canada, Bermuda, the Caribbean, and Alaska; and inter-island itinerary in Hawaii.
The company also provides features, amenities, and activities, including various accommodations, dining venues, bars and lounges, spas, casino and retail shopping areas, and entertainment choices; shore excursions at each port of call, and air transportation and hotel packages for stays before or after a voyage.
It offers its products and services under the Norwegian Cruise Line, Oceania Cruises, and Regent Seven Seas Cruises brands. The company was founded in 1966 and is based in Miami, Florida.
Stock analysis
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NCLH) currently trades at $15.59, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $20.28, implying the stock looks roughly 23.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $31.01 per share, and 8 of the 11 models we run sit above the $15.59 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.30, and 3 of the 11 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $15.21 (bear) to $25.35 (bull), the price of $15.59 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd reported revenue of $9.8B in FY2025 versus $648M in FY2021, a compound +97.3%/yr. Reported net income was $423M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $7.2B Mid · P/E ratio 9.7 · P/S ratio 0.71 · EPS (TTM) $1.61 · Net margin 7.5% · Return on equity 36.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.6% · Operating margin 14.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 56 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 30%, NCLH screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$15.21Fair Value $20.28Bull$25.35
Price $15.59 · Upside +30.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.30 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.57/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+50.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.5% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−26.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−26.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−26.5% vs −6.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−272% → 16%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: High competition and leverage limit any durable moat as the main weakness, while record advance bookings offer the clearest current strength.
Main risk: Elevated interest costs from high leverage risk squeezing margins if operational fixes fail to match rival yield gains.
Norwegian Cruise Line has cut its 2026 earnings outlook after admitting execution missteps that hurt deployment and marketing alignment, despite better-than-expected third-quarter revenue and record advance bookings into 2027 and 2028. Our models see the shares as undervalued. With a new board agreement now in place following activist pressure, will the fixes to operations arrive in time to offset elevated interest costs and rival yield gains?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Travel Services · 87 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score34 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+30.1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)36.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets1.9% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)7.5% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)14.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)4.9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity6.21× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Travel Services median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NCLH
Frequently asked questions
Is Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NCLH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $20.28 versus a price of $15.59, about +30% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NCLH?
Our model-based fair value for Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd is $20.28 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $15.59.
What is the quality score of NCLH?
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 34/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NCLH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $20.28 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $15.21, optimistic scenario $25.35. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $20.28, about +30% upside versus a price of $15.59 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $15.21, optimistic scenario $25.35. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NCLH)?
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $10.2B (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NCLH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd it is $20.28 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of $15.59. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, NCLH trades below its calculated fair value: price $15.59, fair value $20.28, a gap of about +30% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NCLH?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($15.59); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($20.28). For Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd the two are $4.69 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd at about $7.2B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is $15.59; our models calculate a fair value of $20.28 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NCLH?
Our models span a range for Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario $15.21, base $20.28, optimistic $25.35 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price $15.59). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NCLH?
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.7 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $20.28 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2023 ex one-offs: 14.6. Other multiples: PEG 1.2, P/B 3.3, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 8.0.
What is the PEG ratio of NCLH?
The PEG ratio of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd is 1.18 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 22, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NCLH)?
Balance-sheet figures for Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity 36.7%, debt of 6.21 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 34/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NCLH from its 52-week high?
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd trades at $15.59, about 38% below its 52-week high of $25.02 and 10% above the low of $14.12 (as of Oct 21, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $20.28 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Booking Holdings, Airbnb, Inc, Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd, Viking Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price $15.59, calculated fair value $20.28 (+30%), Quality Score 34/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NCLH calculated?
We run Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $20.28, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd currently trades 23 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NCLH)?
The closing price on Oct 21, 2026 was $15.59. Our model-based fair value is $20.28, about +30% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (34/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NCLH)?
The market capitalisation of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd is $7.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NCLH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd is 0.71 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NCLH)?
Earnings per share at Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd are $1.61 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NCLH)?
The net margin of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd is 7.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NCLH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd is 36.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NCLH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd is −0.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NCLH)?
The operating margin of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd is 14.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NCLH)?
Revenue at Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd is growing +4.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +26.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NCLH)?
Earnings per share at Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd are growing +616% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NCLH) generate?
The free cash flow of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd is −$1.2B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NCLH) carry?
The net debt of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd is $14.4B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Oct 22, 2026