Airbnb Inc (ABNB) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $88.2B · ISIN US0090661010
What is Airbnb Inc really worth?
Airbnb Inc
ABNB · US
A strong business, but trading 116% above our fair value of $85.66.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 7 days ago
Share price +23.6% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 78/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The model range is unusually wide ($66.93 to $202.24). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $82.49 – $207.21 · fair‑value band $66.93 – $202.24 · the $185.25 price screens above the $85.66 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
Analysis
Airbnb Inc (ABNB) currently trades at $185.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $85.66, implying the stock looks roughly 116.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 78/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $191.98 per share, and 7 of the 26 models we run sit above the $185.25 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $13.14, and 19 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Airbnb Inc generated revenue of $12.6B at a net margin of 19.9%. Revenue grew 17.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 32.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $4.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $66.93 (bear case) to $202.24 (bull case); at $185.25, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 67% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at −54%, ABNB screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $2.74 per share, which is 3.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($191.98) versus Dividend Discount ($0.4300). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (75).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 79 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 77
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Airbnb, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a platform for stays, experiences, and services worldwide. The company's marketplace connects hosts and guests online or through mobile devices to book spaces, experiences, and services. It also offers gift cards. The company was formerly known as AirBed & Breakfast, Inc.
Full company description
Airbnb, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a platform for stays, experiences, and services worldwide. The company's marketplace connects hosts and guests online or through mobile devices to book spaces, experiences, and services. It also offers gift cards. The company was formerly known as AirBed & Breakfast, Inc. and changed its name to Airbnb, Inc. in November 2010. Airbnb, Inc. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Airbnb Inc reported revenue of $12.2B in FY2025 versus $6.0B in FY2021, a compound +19.6%/yr. Reported net income was $2.5B in FY2025.
ABNB screens 116% overvalued. Compare with Booking Holdings →
Peer Group
Travel Services · 90 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Travel Services median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Travel Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 29, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Booking Holdings BKNG | $202.56 | $152.94 | −24% |
| Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd RCL | $268.74 | $215.19 | −20% |
| Viking Holdings VIK | $85.03 | $43.68 | −49% |
| Carnival Corporation CCL | $24.76 | $31.36 | +27% |
| Expedia Group EXPE | $303.14 | $248.63 | −18% |
| Trip.com Group TCOM | $45.14 | $89.35 | +98% |
| Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings NCLH | $16.14 | $20.28 | +26% |
| Global Business Travel Group GBTG | $9.44 | $5.04 | −47% |
| Travel + Leisure Co TNL | $66.40 | $26.57 | −60% |
| MakeMyTrip Limited MMYT | $60.31 | $19.30 | −68% |
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