Carnival Corporation (CCL) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $36.2B · ISIN BMG2004J1036
What is Carnival Corporation really worth?
Carnival Corporation
CCL · US
Below-average quality, trading 25% below our fair value of $31.36.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 1, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Share price −20.6% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (43/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The model range is unusually wide ($13.70 to $61.56). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.31 – $33.63 · fair‑value band $13.70 – $61.56 · the $23.48 price screens below the $31.36 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
Analysis
Carnival Corporation (CCL) currently trades at $23.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $31.36, implying the stock looks roughly 25.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $47.71 per share, and 16 of the 26 models we run sit above the $23.48 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $6.01, and 10 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Carnival Corporation generated revenue of $27.0B at a net margin of 11.5%. Revenue grew 6.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 27.9%. Net debt stands at $26.1B. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $13.70 (bear case) to $61.56 (bull case); at $23.48, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at 34%, CCL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 9 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $1.43 per share, which is 4.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($47.71) versus Dividend Discount ($0.2400). Highest evidence: EPV (73).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 1, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 17
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Carnival Corporation Ltd., a cruise company, provides leisure travel services in North America, Australia, Europe, and internationally. The company operates through four segments: North America Cruise Operations, Europe Cruise Operations, Cruise Support, and Tour and Other.
Full company description
Carnival Corporation Ltd., a cruise company, provides leisure travel services in North America, Australia, Europe, and internationally. The company operates through four segments: North America Cruise Operations, Europe Cruise Operations, Cruise Support, and Tour and Other. It operates port destinations and islands, as well as owns and operates hotels, lodges, glass-domed railcars, and motorcoaches. The company offers its services under the AIDA Cruises, Carnival Cruise Line, Costa Cruises, Cunard, Holland America Line, P&O Cruises (Australia), P&O Cruises (UK), Princess Cruises, and Seabourn brands. It sells its cruises through travel agents, tour operators, vacation planners, websites, and onboard future cruise consultants. Carnival Corporation Ltd. was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Miami, Florida.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Carnival Corporation reported revenue of $26.6B in FY2025 versus $1.9B in FY2021, a compound +93.3%/yr. Reported net income was $2.8B in FY2025.
of which total revenue +5.2 % · buybacks/dilution −6.1 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch CCL: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Carnival (CCL) Laps the Stock Market: Here's Why
- Both Wall Street and Quant Indicators Point to an October Rally in Carnival Stock
Peer Group
Travel Services · 90 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Travel Services median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Travel Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 1, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Booking Holdings BKNG | $202.56 | $152.94 | −24% |
| Airbnb, Inc ABNB | $184.40 | $85.66 | −54% |
| Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd RCL | $268.74 | $215.19 | −20% |
| Viking Holdings VIK | $85.03 | $43.68 | −49% |
| Expedia Group EXPE | $303.14 | $248.63 | −18% |
| Trip.com Group TCOM | $45.14 | $89.35 | +98% |
| Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings NCLH | $16.14 | $20.28 | +26% |
| Global Business Travel Group GBTG | $9.44 | $5.04 | −47% |
| Travel + Leisure Co TNL | $66.40 | $26.57 | −60% |
| MakeMyTrip Limited MMYT | $60.31 | $19.30 | −68% |
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