Global Business Travel Group Inc (GBTG) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $4.9B · ISIN US37890B1008
What is Global Business Travel Group Inc really worth?
Global Business Travel Group Inc
GBTG · US
Below-average quality, and trading another 122% above our fair value of $4.28.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price +0.6% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($6.21). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (35/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide ($2.07 to $6.21). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (4 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
51‑month range $4.40 – $9.56 · fair‑value band $2.07 – $6.21 · the $9.49 price screens above the $4.28 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Global Business Travel Group Inc (GBTG) currently trades at $9.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.28, implying the stock looks roughly 121.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $5.90 per share, and 3 of the 24 models we run sit above the $9.49 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $1.09, and 21 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Global Business Travel Group Inc generated revenue of $2.9B at a net margin of 2.9%. Revenue grew 35.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.5%. Net debt stands at $1.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $2.07 (bear case) to $6.21 (bull case); at $9.49, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 92% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at −55%, GBTG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.1087 per share, which is 2.5 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($5.90) versus Economic Profit ($1.09). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Global Business Travel Group, Inc. operates as a technology and services company in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally.
Full company description
Global Business Travel Group, Inc. operates as a technology and services company in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company offers the Amex GBT marketplace for fares and rates; travel solutions, such as Amex GBT Egencia for businesses needing a configurable digital travel and expense platform; Complete by SAP Concur and Amex GBT, a co-developed travel and expense solution for businesses; and Amex GBT Neo for businesses preferring customizable global travel. It also provides Amex GBT Select for insight and control in travel spend; Amex GBT Ovation for businesses preferring a higher touch travel solution and personalized corporate travel servicing; and CWTSatoTravel for military and government agencies, as well as related organizations subject to government regulations, policies, and programs. In addition, the company offers professional services, including Amex GBT Meetings & Events for business travelers; and Amex GBT Consulting for guidance and solutions for corporate travel programs, cost savings, traveler experience, and policy compliance. Further, it provides virtual assistants, personalized recommendations, automatic rate optimization tools, and savings identification capabilities through its AI-powered platform; and traveler insights, fare analysis, and data analytics. Global Business Travel Group, Inc. was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Global Business Travel Group Inc reported revenue of $2.7B in FY2025 versus $763M in FY2021, a compound +37.4%/yr. Reported net income was $109M in FY2025.
GBTG screens 122% overvalued. Compare with Booking Holdings →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- 3 Reasons to Avoid GBTG and 1 Stock to Buy Instead
- Global Business Travel Group (GBTG) Earnings Put Its Valuation Narrative Back In Focus
Peer Group
Travel Services · 90 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Travel Services median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Travel Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Booking Holdings BKNG | $202.56 | $152.94 | −24% |
| Airbnb, Inc ABNB | $184.40 | $85.66 | −54% |
| Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd RCL | $268.74 | $215.19 | −20% |
| Viking Holdings VIK | $85.03 | $43.68 | −49% |
| Carnival Corporation CCL | $24.76 | $31.36 | +27% |
| Expedia Group EXPE | $303.14 | $248.63 | −18% |
| Trip.com Group TCOM | $45.14 | $89.35 | +98% |
| Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings NCLH | $16.14 | $20.28 | +26% |
| Travel + Leisure Co TNL | $66.40 | $26.57 | −60% |
| MakeMyTrip Limited MMYT | $60.31 | $19.30 | −68% |
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