Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $142B · ISIN US09857L1089
What is Booking Holdings Inc really worth?
Booking Holdings Inc
BKNG · US
A strong business, but trading 28% above our fair value of $152.94.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price +0.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 88/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above our optimistic bull case: the favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $64.02 – $230.69 · fair‑value band $114.03 – $191.78 · the $195.13 price screens above the $152.94 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
Analysis
Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG) currently trades at $195.13, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $152.94, implying the stock looks roughly 27.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 88/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $251.59 per share, and 9 of the 23 models we run sit above the $195.13 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $25.93, and 14 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Booking Holdings Inc generated revenue of $27.7B at a net margin of 22.2%. Revenue grew 16.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 225.7%. Net debt stands at $2.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $114.03 (bear case) to $191.78 (bull case); at $195.13, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at −22%, BKNG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $4.09 per share, which is 2.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($251.59) versus Dividend Discount ($25.93). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (75).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 84 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Booking Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides online and traditional travel and restaurant reservations and related services in the United States, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and internationally.
Full company description
Booking Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides online and traditional travel and restaurant reservations and related services in the United States, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company operates Booking.com, which offers online accommodation reservations; and Priceline, which provides discount travel reservations services, as well as online accommodation, flight, rental car reservation services, vacation packages, cruises, activity, and affiliate programs. It also operates Agoda that offers online accommodation reservation, flight, ground transportation, and attractions. In addition, the company operates KAYAK, an online meta-search service that allows consumers to search and compare travel itineraries and prices; and OpenTable for booking online restaurant reservations, as well as reservation management services to restaurants. Further, it offers travel-related insurance products, payment facilitation, and restaurant management services to consumers, travel service providers, and restaurants; and advertising services. The company was formerly known as The Priceline Group Inc. and changed its name to Booking Holdings Inc. in February 2018. Booking Holdings Inc. was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Norwalk, Connecticut.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Booking Holdings Inc reported revenue of $26.9B in FY2025 versus $11.0B in FY2021, a compound +25.2%/yr. Reported net income was $5.4B in FY2025, compounding +46.8%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
of which total revenue +10.9 % · buybacks/dilution −26.9 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
BKNG screens 28% overvalued. Compare with Airbnb, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Booking Holdings (BKNG) Rises Higher Than Market: Key Facts
- Booking (BKNG): Buy, Sell, or Hold Post Q2 Earnings?
- Rosenblatt Sees Booking (BKNG) as the Best-Positioned Online Travel Agency Despite Challenges
Peer Group
Travel Services · 90 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Travel Services median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Travel Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 29, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Airbnb, Inc ABNB | $184.40 | $85.66 | −54% |
| Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd RCL | $268.74 | $215.19 | −20% |
| Viking Holdings VIK | $85.03 | $43.68 | −49% |
| Carnival Corporation CCL | $24.76 | $31.36 | +27% |
| Expedia Group EXPE | $303.14 | $248.63 | −18% |
| Trip.com Group TCOM | $45.14 | $89.35 | +98% |
| Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings NCLH | $16.14 | $20.28 | +26% |
| Global Business Travel Group GBTG | $9.44 | $5.04 | −47% |
| Travel + Leisure Co TNL | $66.40 | $26.57 | −60% |
| MakeMyTrip Limited MMYT | $60.31 | $19.30 | −68% |
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