Expedia Group (EXPE) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $32.3B
Expedia Group
EXPE · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated today
Share price +23.3% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 24% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 72/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($310.79). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $82.66 – $328.31 · fair‑value band $186.47 – $310.79 · the $328.31 price screens above the $248.63 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Expedia Group (EXPE) currently trades at $328.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $248.63, implying the stock looks roughly 24.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Expedia Group generated revenue of $15.2B at a net margin of 9.8%. Revenue grew 14.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 71.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $307M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $186.47 (bear case) to $310.79 (bull case); at $328.31, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades near its 52-week high and 107% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -30% fair-value upside, at -24%, EXPE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($405.73) versus Asset-Based ($7.51). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 69 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 76
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Expedia Group, Inc. operates as an online travel company in the United States and internationally. The company operates through B2C, B2B, and trivago segments.
Full company description
Expedia Group, Inc. operates as an online travel company in the United States and internationally. The company operates through B2C, B2B, and trivago segments. The B2C segment includes Brand Expedia, a full-service online travel brand offers various travel products and services; Hotels.com for lodging accommodations; Vrbo, an online marketplace for the alternative accommodations; and Orbitz, Travelocity, ebookers, and Wotif Group. The B2B segment provides various travel and non-travel companies including airlines, offline travel agents, online retailers, corporate travel management, and financial institutions who leverage its travel technology and tap into its diverse supply to augment their offerings and market Expedia Group rates and availabilities to its travelers. The trivago segment sends referrals to online travel companies and travel service providers from hotel metasearch websites. In addition, it provides brand advertising through online and offline channels, loyalty programs, mobile apps, and search engine marketing, as well as metasearch, social media, direct and personalized traveler communications on its websites, and through direct e-mail communication with its travelers. The company was formerly known as Expedia, Inc. and changed its name to Expedia Group, Inc. in March 2018. Expedia Group, Inc. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Expedia Group reported revenue of $14.7B in FY2025 versus $8.6B in FY2021, a compound +14.4%/yr. Reported net income was $1.3B in FY2025, compounding +222.2%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +7.7 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
EXPE screens 24% overvalued. Compare with Booking Holdings →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- EXPE Q2 Deep Dive: AI and Marketplace Expansion Fuel Revenue Growth Amid Market Caution
- IBD 50 Stock To Watch: Travel Giant Expedia In Buy Zone Following Latest Breakout
- Expedia Group (EXPE) Q2 Beat And Higher Guidance Leave Valuation In Focus
- Expedia Group Q2 Earnings & Revenues Beat Estimates, Increase Y/Y
Peer Group
Travel Services · 91 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Travel Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Travel Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Booking Holdings BKNG | $212.26 | $152.94 | -28% |
| Airbnb, Inc ABNB | $180.10 | $85.66 | -52% |
| Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd RCL | $307.15 | $215.19 | -30% |
| Viking Holdings VIK | $104.19 | $43.68 | -58% |
| Carnival Corporation CCL | $27.67 | $31.36 | +13% |
| Trip.com Group TCOM | $45.58 | $89.04 | +95% |
| Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings NCLH | $18.92 | $20.28 | +7% |
| Global Business Travel Group GBTG | $9.44 | $5.04 | -47% |
| Travel + Leisure Co TNL | $74.68 | $26.57 | -64% |
| MakeMyTrip Limited MMYT | $60.31 | $19.30 | -68% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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