Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $32.3B · ISIN US30212P3038
What is Expedia Group Inc. really worth?
Expedia Group Inc.
EXPE · US
A solid business, but trading 22% above our fair value of $248.63.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 5, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated today
Share price −2.9% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 72/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin.
- Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $82.66 – $339.13 · fair‑value band $186.47 – $310.79 · the $303.14 price screens above the $248.63 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
Analysis
Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE) currently trades at $303.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $248.63, implying the stock looks roughly 21.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $405.73 per share, and 13 of the 26 models we run sit above the $303.14 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $28.12, and 13 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Expedia Group Inc. generated revenue of $15.2B at a net margin of 9.8%. Revenue grew 14.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 71.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $307M. Fundamentals as of Sep 5, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $186.47 (bear case) to $310.79 (bull case); at $303.14, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades near its 52-week high and 91% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at −18%, EXPE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $6.46 per share, which is 2.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($405.73) versus Asset-Based ($7.51). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 69 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 69
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Expedia Group, Inc. operates as an online travel company in the United States and internationally. The company operates through B2C, B2B, and trivago segments.
Full company description
Expedia Group, Inc. operates as an online travel company in the United States and internationally. The company operates through B2C, B2B, and trivago segments. The B2C segment includes Brand Expedia, a full-service online travel brand offers various travel products and services; Hotels.com for lodging accommodations; Vrbo, an online marketplace for the alternative accommodations; and Orbitz, Travelocity, ebookers, and Wotif Group. The B2B segment provides various travel and non-travel companies including airlines, offline travel agents, online retailers, corporate travel management, and financial institutions who leverage its travel technology and tap into its diverse supply to augment their offerings and market Expedia Group rates and availabilities to its travelers. The trivago segment sends referrals to online travel companies and travel service providers from hotel metasearch websites. In addition, it provides brand advertising through online and offline channels, loyalty programs, mobile apps, and search engine marketing, as well as metasearch, social media, direct and personalized traveler communications on its websites, and through direct e-mail communication with its travelers. The company was formerly known as Expedia, Inc. and changed its name to Expedia Group, Inc. in March 2018. Expedia Group, Inc. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Expedia Group Inc. reported revenue of $14.7B in FY2025 versus $8.6B in FY2021, a compound +14.4%/yr. Reported net income was $1.3B in FY2025, compounding +222.2%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
of which total revenue +7.7 % · buybacks/dilution +0.0 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
EXPE screens 22% overvalued. Compare with Booking Holdings →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Could Expedia (EXPE) Stock Keep Rising as B2B Growth Fuels its Next Phase?
- Expedia Group to Participate in Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference 2026
Peer Group
Travel Services · 90 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Travel Services median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Travel Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 5, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Booking Holdings BKNG | $202.56 | $152.94 | −24% |
| Airbnb, Inc ABNB | $184.40 | $85.66 | −54% |
| Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd RCL | $268.74 | $215.19 | −20% |
| Viking Holdings VIK | $85.03 | $43.68 | −49% |
| Carnival Corporation CCL | $24.76 | $31.36 | +27% |
| Trip.com Group TCOM | $45.14 | $89.35 | +98% |
| Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings NCLH | $16.14 | $20.28 | +26% |
| Global Business Travel Group GBTG | $9.44 | $5.04 | −47% |
| Travel + Leisure Co TNL | $66.40 | $26.57 | −60% |
| MakeMyTrip Limited MMYT | $60.31 | $19.30 | −68% |
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