Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 21, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Expedia Group Inc. stock $314, price $286, upside +10.0%, quality 71 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $82.55 – $338.64 · fair‑value band $235.65 – $392.76 · the $285.64 price screens below the $314.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
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Expedia Group, Inc. operates as an online travel company in the United States and internationally. The company operates through B2C, B2B, and trivago segments.
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The B2C segment includes Brand Expedia, a full-service online travel brand offers various travel products and services; Hotels.com for lodging accommodations; Vrbo, an online marketplace for the alternative accommodations; and Orbitz, Travelocity, ebookers, and Wotif Group.
The B2B segment provides various travel and non-travel companies including airlines, offline travel agents, online retailers, corporate travel management, and financial institutions who leverage its travel technology and tap into its diverse supply to augment their offerings and market Expedia Group rates and availabilities to its travelers.
The trivago segment sends referrals to online travel companies and travel service providers from hotel metasearch websites.
In addition, it provides brand advertising through online and offline channels, loyalty programs, mobile apps, and search engine marketing, as well as metasearch, social media, direct and personalized traveler communications on its websites, and through direct e-mail communication with its travelers.
The company was formerly known as Expedia, Inc. and changed its name to Expedia Group, Inc. in March 2018. Expedia Group, Inc. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.
Stock analysis
Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE) currently trades at $285.64, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $314.20, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 9.1%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $437.37 per share, and 13 of the 24 models we run sit above the $285.64 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $52.17, and 11 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $235.65 (bear) to $392.76 (bull), the price of $285.64 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Expedia Group Inc. reported revenue of $14.7B in FY2025 versus $8.6B in FY2021, a compound +14.4%/yr. Reported net income was $1.3B in FY2025, compounding +222.2%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $35.4B Large · P/E ratio 18.8 · P/S ratio 2.25 · EPS (TTM) $16.01 · Dividend yield 0.6% · Net margin 13.0% · Return on equity 89.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 68 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 10%, EXPE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$235.65Fair Value $314.20Bull$392.76
Price $285.64 · Upside +10.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($11.52 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.2% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
≈ +39.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+38.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.38.5% vs 12.6%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−52% → 15%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Approximate: the rate leans on 2025, which sits 85% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−0.5%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −2.9% a year for the price and +4.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
AI conclusion: Moderate organization capital and pricing power from high ROE form the main strength, yet thin public signals on human capital and innovation limit any durable moat amid cyclical pressures.
Main risk: Cyclical travel pressure threatens to compress margins in the online travel services platform.
Expedia has refreshed its One Key loyalty program by adding lounge access for delayed flights, discounted security clearance, and automatic price protection, while shifting more rewards toward higher-tier members. Base-level earning rates have been cut on some bookings and standalone flights no longer qualify. Does this emphasis on premium perks and ecosystem stickiness outweigh the risk of reduced appeal for less frequent travelers?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Travel Services · 87 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score71 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+10.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)89.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets5.3% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)13.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)19.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)14.0% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.6% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity3.48× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Travel Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)18.8× · Pricier than median
P/B27.53× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Expedia Group Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/EXPE
Frequently asked questions
Is Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $314.20 versus a price of $285.64, about +10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of EXPE?
Our model-based fair value for Expedia Group Inc. is $314.20 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $285.64.
What is the quality score of EXPE?
Expedia Group Inc. has a Quality Score of 71/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $314.20 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $235.65, optimistic scenario $392.76. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Expedia Group Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $314.20, about +10% upside versus a price of $285.64 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $235.65, optimistic scenario $392.76. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE)?
Expedia Group Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $15.7B (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
Does Expedia Group Inc. pay a dividend?
Expedia Group Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of 0.62% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 22, 2026).
What growth is priced into Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Expedia Group Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by -0.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +23.2 % per year. As of Oct 22, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of EXPE use?
Our models discount Expedia Group Inc. at 10.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.36, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Expedia Group Inc. that is -0.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Expedia Group Inc. grew +23.2 % a year. The price currently implies -0.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Expedia Group Inc. (-0.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.80 %: that much free cash flow Expedia Group Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Expedia Group Inc. it is $314.20 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of $285.64. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Expedia Group Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, EXPE trades below its calculated fair value: price $285.64, fair value $314.20, a gap of about +10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EXPE?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($285.64); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($314.20). For Expedia Group Inc. the two are $28.56 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Expedia Group Inc. worth?
The market values Expedia Group Inc. at about $35.4B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is $285.64; our models calculate a fair value of $314.20 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EXPE?
Our models span a range for Expedia Group Inc.: cautious scenario $235.65, base $314.20, optimistic $392.76 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price $285.64). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of EXPE?
Expedia Group Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.8 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $314.20 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.7, P/B 27.5, P/S 2.3, EV/EBITDA 11.4.
What is the PEG ratio of EXPE?
The PEG ratio of Expedia Group Inc. is 0.68 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 22, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Expedia Group Inc. (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity 89.5%, debt of 3.48 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 71/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EXPE from its 52-week high?
Expedia Group Inc. trades at $285.64, about 16% below its 52-week high of $338.64 and 52% above the low of $187.43 (as of Oct 21, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $314.20 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Expedia Group Inc.?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Booking Holdings, Airbnb, Inc, Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd, Viking Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Expedia Group Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price $285.64, calculated fair value $314.20 (+10%), Quality Score 71/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EXPE calculated?
We run Expedia Group Inc. through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $314.20, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Expedia Group Inc. currently trades 9 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE)?
The closing price on Oct 21, 2026 was $285.64. Our model-based fair value is $314.20, about +10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Expedia Group Inc. right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE) come from?
Earnings per share at Expedia Group Inc. grew +9.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.7 %, EBIT margin +5.8 %, tax rate −0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Expedia Group Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE)?
The market capitalisation of Expedia Group Inc. is $35.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Expedia Group Inc. is 2.25 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE)?
Earnings per share at Expedia Group Inc. are $16.01 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE)?
The dividend yield of Expedia Group Inc. is 0.6% (payout 11.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE)?
The net margin of Expedia Group Inc. is 13.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Expedia Group Inc. is 89.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Expedia Group Inc. is 5.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE)?
The operating margin of Expedia Group Inc. is 19.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE)?
Revenue at Expedia Group Inc. is growing +14.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE)?
Earnings per share at Expedia Group Inc. are growing +189% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE) hold?
Expedia Group Inc. holds more cash than debt, $307M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Oct 22, 2026