Trip.com Group Ltd (9961) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$207B (≈ $26.4B) · ISIN KYG9066F1019

What is Trip.com Group Ltd really worth?

TC Trip.com Group Ltd 9961 · HK

PriceHK$325.60

Fair ValueHK$577.85

Upside+77.5%

Quality65/100

A solid business, trading 44% below our fair value of HK$577.85.

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Strengths

✓Highly profitable · 48.7% net margin

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

✓Ranks above peers (11/15)

✓Wide moat 72/100

Risks

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +27.8 %/yr)

!The models disagree: range HK$408.36 to HK$1,413

!Weak on dividend: 12 out of 100

Evidence: High Range HK$408.36 – HK$1,413

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$620.95 to HK$577.85 (−6.9%) since Jul 12, 2026. Share price −11.2% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$408.36). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
The model range is unusually wide (HK$408.36 to HK$1,413). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Solid quality (65/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$125.57 – HK$609.00 · fair‑value band HK$408.36 – HK$1,413 · the HK$325.60 price screens below the HK$577.85 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Trip.com Group Ltd (9961) currently trades at HK$325.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$577.85, implying the stock looks roughly 43.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$1,804 per share, and 18 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$325.60 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$181.97, and 8 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Trip.com Group Ltd generated revenue of HK$62.4B at a net margin of 53.4%. Revenue grew 20.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 21.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$14.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$408.36 (bear case) to HK$1,413 (bull case); at HK$325.60, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic. The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at 77%, 9961 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$26.89 per share, which is 4.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence

Highest evidence

FCF DCF HK$440.82 HK$676.71 HK$1,448 75

EPV HK$213.78 HK$241.69 HK$266.50 74

Growth DCF HK$418.68 HK$758.02 HK$1,473 74

All 26 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF HK$440.82 HK$676.71 HK$1,448 75

Owner Earnings HK$943.30 HK$2,135 HK$4,750 70

5Y Revenue Exit HK$225.27 HK$313.78 HK$496.07 72

5Y EBITDA Exit HK$342.61 HK$551.13 HK$959.63 73

5Y P/E Exit HK$830.33 HK$1,926 HK$3,444 67

10Y Revenue Exit HK$284.77 HK$476.70 HK$572.64 67

10Y EBITDA Exit HK$376.31 HK$735.34 HK$1,350 65

10Y P/E Exit HK$740.35 HK$1,810 HK$3,627 59

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd HK$359.53 HK$2,507 HK$3,519 63

Lynch FV HK$980.41 HK$1,401 HK$1,821 61

PEG = 1.0 HK$980.41 HK$1,401 HK$1,821 57

EPV HK$213.78 HK$241.69 HK$266.50 74

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM HK$21.74 HK$47.46 HK$79.85 65

DDM Multi-Stage HK$21.74 HK$38.87 HK$49.46 66

Multiples

P/E Multiple HK$872.39 HK$1,163 HK$1,454 63

P/S Multiple HK$89.20 HK$118.93 HK$148.66 58

P/B Multiple HK$674.12 HK$898.83 HK$1,124 55

EV/EBIT HK$393.80 HK$506.51 HK$619.23 66

EV/EBITDA HK$296.73 HK$377.09 HK$457.45 67

EV/Revenue HK$138.90 HK$174.58 HK$210.26 54

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) HK$135.80 HK$181.97 HK$271.59 54

Growth DCF

Growth DCF HK$418.68 HK$758.02 HK$1,473 74

Rev-Margin DCF HK$227.96 HK$351.61 HK$586.34 71

Economic Profit

Residual Income HK$378.30 HK$537.29 HK$3,162 64

ROIC Compounder HK$213.78 HK$241.69 HK$266.50 72

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E HK$1,263 HK$1,804 HK$2,346 67

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$1,804) versus Dividend Discount (HK$38.87). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (75).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 6.3 as of Jul 12, 2026

P/S ratio 3.37 P/E × margin

EPS (TTM) HK$45.46 price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.3

Dividend yield 0.6% payout 4.4%

Net margin 53.3% FY2025

Return on equity 20.1% TTM

More key figures

Profitability

Return on assets (EBIT) 3.2% avg 5y

Operating margin 24.3% TTM

Growth

Revenue (TTM) HK$64.8B TTM

Revenue growth (YoY) +17.2% 3y avg +46.0%

EPS growth (YoY) −39.7%

Balance sheet & cash flow

Free cash flow HK$13.6B FY2025

Net cash HK$14.5B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 65/100

Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30

Profitability 57

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 62

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 67

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 75

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 55

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 71

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 18

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 4

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 64

Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Full company description

Trip.com Group Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates as a travel service provider for accommodation reservation, transportation ticketing, packaged tours, in-destination, corporate travel management, and other travel-related services in China and internationally. It acts as an agent for hotel-related transactions and selling air tickets, as well as provides train, long-distance bus, and ferry tickets; travel insurance products, such as flight delay, air accident, and baggage loss coverage; and air-ticket delivery, online check-in and seat selection, express security screening, real-time flight status tracker, and airport VIP lounge services. The company also provides travelers bundled packaged-tour products, such as group, semi-group, and customized and packaged tours with various transportation arrangements, including air, cruise, bus, and car rental services. In addition, it offers integrated transportation and accommodation services; ticket, activity, insurance, visa, and tour guide services; and user support, supplier management, and customer relationship management services; and in-destination products and services. Further, the company provides Trip.Biz, a digital first, full-service, corporate travel management business which provides technology-enabled solutions for organizations managing business travel. Additionally, it offers online advertising and financial services, such as marketing planning and travel media services; Omni-Channel Touchpoints for Users; and Open Platform for Ecosystem Partners. It operates under the Ctrip, Qunar, Trip.com, Travix, Travelfusion, and Skyscanner brand names. The company was formerly known as Ctrip.com International, Ltd. and changed its name to Trip.com Group Limited in October 2019. Trip.com Group Limited was founded in 1999 and is based in Singapore.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Trip.com Group Ltd reported revenue of 62.4B CNY in FY2025 versus 20.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound +32.9%/yr. Reported net income was 33.3B CNY in FY2025.

Growth Quality 91/100

Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Latest Revenue (FY 2025)

HK$62.4B

Latest YoY

+17.1%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+46.0%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+27.8%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (25Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+44.4%

Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, EBIT basis) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.

+8.1% (7.5 + 0.6)

Revenue +32.9%/yr

FY21 20.0B CNY

FY22 20.0B CNY

FY23 44.5B CNY

FY24 53.3B CNY

FY25 62.4B CNY

Net income

FY21 −550M CNY

FY22 1.4B CNY

FY23 9.9B CNY

FY24 17.1B CNY

FY25 33.3B CNY

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Trip.com Group Ltd · Fair Value
HK$577.85 +44%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Trip.com Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9961

Peer Group

Travel Services · 90 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 65 · Top 25%

Fair Value upside +78% · Top 25%

Return on equity (TTM) 20% · Above median

Return on assets 4% · Above median

Net margin (TTM) 49% · Top 25%

Operating margin (TTM) 24% · Top 25%

Revenue growth 17% · Top 25%

Dividend yield (TTM) 0.6% · Bottom 25%

Debt / equity 0.07× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Travel Services median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 6.3× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

P/B 1.21× · Cheaper than median

P/S (TTM) 3.20× · Pricier than 75% of peers

P/FCF 1.9× · Cheaper than median

EV/EBITDA 10.1× · Pricier than median

PEG 1.83× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE100 · sector 17

FUTURE86 · sector 25

PAST81 · sector 31

HEALTH97 · sector 97

DIVIDEND12 · sector 39

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Travel Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
Booking Holdings BKNG	$202.56	$152.94	−24%
Airbnb, Inc ABNB	$184.40	$85.66	−54%
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd RCL	$268.74	$215.19	−20%
Viking Holdings VIK	$85.03	$43.68	−49%
Carnival Corporation CCL	$24.76	$31.36	+27%
Expedia Group EXPE	$303.14	$248.63	−18%
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings NCLH	$16.14	$20.28	+26%
Global Business Travel Group GBTG	$9.44	$5.04	−47%
Travel + Leisure Co TNL	$66.40	$26.57	−60%
MakeMyTrip Limited MMYT	$60.31	$19.30	−68%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Trip.com Group Ltd (9961) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$577.85 versus a price of HK$325.60, about +77% upside (undervalued).

What is the fair value of 9961?

Our model-based fair value for Trip.com Group Ltd is HK$577.85 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$325.60.

What is the quality score of 9961?

Trip.com Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the revenue of Trip.com Group Ltd (9961)?

Trip.com Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$62.4B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of 9961?

The net profit margin of Trip.com Group Ltd is about 53.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 53.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

Does Trip.com Group Ltd pay a dividend?

Trip.com Group Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.61% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

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