Trip.com Group (9961) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$207B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$620.95 to HK$577.85 (−6.9%) since Jul 12, 2026. Share price +5.5% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 63% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$408.36). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The model range is unusually wide (HK$408.36 to HK$1,413). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid quality (65/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$125.57 – HK$609.00 · fair‑value band HK$408.36 – HK$1,413 · the HK$354.20 price screens below the HK$577.85 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Trip.com Group (9961) currently trades at HK$354.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$577.85, implying the stock looks roughly 63.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Trip.com Group generated revenue of HK$62.4B at a net margin of 53.4%. Revenue grew 20.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 21.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$14.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$408.36 (bear case) to HK$1,413 (bull case); at HK$354.20, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic. The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -30% fair-value upside, at 63%, 9961 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$1,804) versus Dividend Discount (HK$38.87). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Trip.com Group Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates as a travel service provider for accommodation reservation, transportation ticketing, packaged tours, in-destination, corporate travel management, and other travel-related services in China and internationally.
Full company description
Trip.com Group Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates as a travel service provider for accommodation reservation, transportation ticketing, packaged tours, in-destination, corporate travel management, and other travel-related services in China and internationally. It acts as an agent for hotel-related transactions and selling air tickets, as well as provides train, long-distance bus, and ferry tickets; travel insurance products, such as flight delay, air accident, and baggage loss coverage; and air-ticket delivery, online check-in and seat selection, express security screening, real-time flight status tracker, and airport VIP lounge services. The company also provides travelers bundled packaged-tour products, such as group, semi-group, and customized and packaged tours with various transportation arrangements, including air, cruise, bus, and car rental services. In addition, it offers integrated transportation and accommodation services; ticket, activity, insurance, visa, and tour guide services; and user support, supplier management, and customer relationship management services; and in-destination products and services. Further, the company provides Trip.Biz, a digital first, full-service, corporate travel management business which provides technology-enabled solutions for organizations managing business travel. Additionally, it offers online advertising and financial services, such as marketing planning and travel media services; Omni-Channel Touchpoints for Users; and Open Platform for Ecosystem Partners. It operates under the Ctrip, Qunar, Trip.com, Travix, Travelfusion, and Skyscanner brand names. The company was formerly known as Ctrip.com International, Ltd. and changed its name to Trip.com Group Limited in October 2019. Trip.com Group Limited was founded in 1999 and is based in Singapore.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Trip.com Group reported revenue of HK$62.4B in FY2025 versus HK$20.0B in FY2021, a compound +32.9%/yr. Reported net income was HK$33.3B in FY2025.
Watch 9961: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- /C O R R E C T I O N -- Trip.com Group/
- Trip.com Group Releases 2025 Sustainability Report, Announces New Global Paid Paternity Leave Policy
- Here's Why Trip.com (TCOM) Fell More Than Broader Market
- Trip.com (TCOM) Ascends But Remains Behind Market: Some Facts to Note
Peer Group
Travel Services · 91 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Travel Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Travel Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Booking Holdings BKNG | $212.26 | $152.94 | -28% |
| Airbnb, Inc ABNB | $180.10 | $85.66 | -52% |
| Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd RCL | $307.15 | $215.19 | -30% |
| Viking Holdings VIK | $104.19 | $43.68 | -58% |
| Carnival Corporation CCL | $27.67 | $31.36 | +13% |
| Expedia Group EXPE | $325.57 | $248.63 | -24% |
| Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings NCLH | $18.92 | $20.28 | +7% |
| Global Business Travel Group GBTG | $9.44 | $5.04 | -47% |
| Travel + Leisure Co TNL | $74.68 | $26.57 | -64% |
| MakeMyTrip Limited MMYT | $60.31 | $19.30 | -68% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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