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Vail Resorts Inc (MTN) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $5.4B · ISIN US91879Q1094

What is Vail Resorts Inc really worth?

VR Vail Resorts Inc logo Vail Resorts Inc MTN · US
Price$136.06
Fair Value$132.94
Upside−2.3%
Quality66/100

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value of $132.94.

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Strengths

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +8.6 %/yr)

Risks

!Thin margins · 5.5% net margin
!High debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (7/15)
!Moderate moat 61/100

For context

·6.53% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range $84.22 – $216.09

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $125.02 to $132.94 (+6.3%) since Jul 12, 2026. Share price −9.0% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • A fairly wide model range ($84.22 to $216.09) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$301.81 $117.19 Fair Value $132.94 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $117.19 – $301.81 · fair‑value band $84.22 – $216.09 · the $136.06 price screens above the $132.94 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Vail Resorts Inc (MTN) currently trades at $136.06, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $132.94, implying the stock looks roughly 2.3% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $139.28 per share, and 8 of the 26 models we run sit above the $136.06 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $49.18, and 18 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Vail Resorts Inc generated revenue of $2.9B at a net margin of 8.0%. Revenue declined 4.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 34.6%. Net debt stands at $3.0B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $84.22 (bear case) to $216.09 (bull case); at $136.06, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 19% fair-value upside, at −2%, MTN screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $42.19 $107.24 $208.72 75
EPV $55.76 $74.11 $89.94 74
Growth DCF $42.48 $104.38 $198.87 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $42.19 $107.24 $208.72 75
Owner Earnings $49.12 $118.55 $226.88 72
5Y Revenue Exit $19.33 $66.90 $128.50 67
5Y EBITDA Exit $102.51 $229.80 $384.59 72
5Y P/E Exit $51.55 $130.00 $215.69 68
10Y Revenue Exit $24.47 $70.43 $134.70 62
10Y EBITDA Exit $79.43 $183.81 $334.19 65
10Y P/E Exit $47.08 $114.35 $202.62 60
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $53.43 $204.53 $277.08 64
Lynch FV $49.83 $71.19 $92.55 61
PEG = 1.0 $49.83 $71.19 $92.55 57
EPV $55.76 $74.11 $89.94 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $80.88 $161.17 $244.05 67
DDM Multi-Stage $80.88 $139.28 $170.12 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $129.66 $172.87 $216.09 63
P/S Multiple $74.87 $99.83 $124.78 58
P/B Multiple $35.74 $47.65 $59.56 55
EV/EBIT $151.68 $222.40 $293.11 65
EV/EBITDA $155.84 $227.94 $300.04 67
EV/Revenue $9.42 $39.37 $69.31 48
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $5.96 $7.98 $11.91 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $42.48 $104.38 $198.87 74
Rev-Margin DCF $19.33 $66.95 $125.11 68
Economic Profit
Residual Income $41.02 $49.18 $248.72 64
ROIC Compounder $66.58 $104.41 $151.79 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $93.06 $132.94 $172.82 67

Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($139.28) versus Asset-Based ($7.98). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (75).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 32.4 as of Jul 12, 2026
P/S ratio 3.06 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $6.28 price ÷ EPS = P/E 32.4
Dividend yield 6.5% payout 141%
Net margin 9.4% FY2025
Return on equity 34.6% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 8.1% avg 5y
Operating margin 32.0% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $2.9B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −4.7% 3y avg +5.5%
EPS growth (YoY) −10.1%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $320M FY2025
Net debt $3.0B FY2025 · ≈ 9.4 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 66/100

Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48

Profitability 52
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 52
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 64
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 14
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 89
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 67
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 42
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 36
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Vail Resorts, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates mountain resorts and regional ski areas in the United States and internationally. It operates in three segments: Mountain, Lodging, and Real Estate. The Mountain segment operates destination mountain resorts and regional ski areas.

Full company description

Vail Resorts, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates mountain resorts and regional ski areas in the United States and internationally. It operates in three segments: Mountain, Lodging, and Real Estate. The Mountain segment operates destination mountain resorts and regional ski areas. This segment is also involved in ancillary activities, including ski school, dining, and retail/rental operations, as well as real estate brokerage activities. Its lodging segment owns and manages various luxury hotels and condominiums under the RockResorts brand; operates other lodging properties and various condominiums; and offers resort ground transportation services. The Real Estate segment owns, develops, and sells real estate properties. Vail Resorts, Inc. was founded in 1962 and is based in Broomfield, Colorado.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Vail Resorts Inc reported revenue of $3.0B in FY2025 versus $1.9B in FY2021, a compound +11.6%/yr. Reported net income was $280M in FY2025, compounding +21.7%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 82/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$3.0B
Latest YoY
+2.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (29Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+10.0%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, adjusted) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+24.1% (17.6 + 6.5)
Revenue +11.6%/yr
FY21 $1.9B
FY22 $2.5B
FY23 $2.9B
FY24 $2.9B
FY25 $3.0B
Net income +21.7%/yr
FY21 $128M
FY22 $348M
FY23 $266M
FY24 $231M
FY25 $280M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +11.1 % p.a.
Revenue per share +8.0 %

of which total revenue +8.3 % · buybacks/dilution −0.3 %

EBIT margin +2.4 %
Tax rate +1.0 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −0.5 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Vail Resorts Inc · Fair Value
$132.94 −2%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Vail Resorts Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MTN

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Resorts & Casinos · 73 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −2% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 17% · Top 25%
Return on assets 5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 42% · Top 25%
Revenue growth −7% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 6.5% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 6.11× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Resorts & Casinos median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 32.4× · Pricier than median
P/B 12.60× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 1.89× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 16.7× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 10.1× · Pricier than median
PEG 3.33× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE30 · sector 30
FUTURE0 · sector 24
PAST67 · sector 20
HEALTH0 · sector 82
DIVIDEND100 · sector 61

Insider activity: 78/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Gambling

Similar stocks

10 more Resorts & Casinos stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Las Vegas Sands Corp LVS $46.23 $51.60 +12%
Galaxy Entertainment Group 0027 HK$33.86 HK$40.46 +19%
Sands China Ltd 1928 HK$14.45 HK$19.10 +32%
MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries, MGM $42.28 $17.73 −58%
Wynn Resorts, Limited WYNN $102.97 $69.39 −33%
Red Rock Resorts, Inc RRR $58.40 $18.01 −69%
Boyd Gaming Corporation BYD $80.63 $151.24 +88%
Caesars Entertainment, Inc CZR $29.63 $80.92 +173%
Genting Singapore Limited G13 0.6700 SGD 0.6900 SGD +3%
MGM China Holdings 2282 HK$10.42 HK$24.07 +131%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Vail Resorts Inc (MTN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $132.94 versus a price of $136.06, about −2% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of MTN?
Our model-based fair value for Vail Resorts Inc is $132.94 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $136.06.
What is the quality score of MTN?
Vail Resorts Inc has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Vail Resorts Inc (MTN)?
Vail Resorts Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.9B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of MTN?
The net profit margin of Vail Resorts Inc is about 8.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 8.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Vail Resorts Inc pay a dividend?
Vail Resorts Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.53% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).
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