MGM Resorts International (MGM) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $11.8B · ISIN US5529531015
What is MGM Resorts International really worth?
MGM Resorts International
MGM · US
A solid business, but trading 29% above our fair value of $31.91.
Risks
Fair value as of: Sep 1, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Fair value updated Sep 1, 2026, revised from $17.73 to $31.91 (+80.0%) since Aug 27, 2026. Share price −10.0% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($39.91). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $25.79 – $50.90 · fair‑value band $23.94 – $39.91 · the $41.13 price screens above the $31.91 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
Analysis
MGM Resorts International (MGM) currently trades at $41.13, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $31.91, implying the stock looks roughly 28.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $81.63 per share, and 10 of the 23 models we run sit above the $41.13 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $6.36, and 13 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, MGM Resorts International generated revenue of $17.7B at a net margin of 1.0%. Revenue grew 4.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.5%. Net debt stands at $54.1B. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $23.94 (bear case) to $39.91 (bull case); at $41.13, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 41% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 19% fair-value upside, at −22%, MGM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.4872 per share, which is 1.5 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($81.63) versus Asset-Based ($6.36). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 1, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries, operates as a gaming and entertainment company in the United States, China, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Las Vegas Strip Resorts, Regional Operations, MGM China, and MGM Digital.
Full company description
MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries, operates as a gaming and entertainment company in the United States, China, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Las Vegas Strip Resorts, Regional Operations, MGM China, and MGM Digital. The company operates casino resorts that offer gaming, hotel, convention, dining, entertainment, retail, and other resort amenities, as well as online/digital games through its online platforms. Its casino operations include slots and table games, as well as live dealer, online sports betting, and iGaming through BetMGM. The company's customers include premium gaming customers; leisure and wholesale travel customers; business travelers; and group customers, including conventions, trade associations, and small meetings. The company was formerly known as MGM MIRAGE and changed its name to MGM Resorts International in June 2010. MGM Resorts International was incorporated in 1986 and is based in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
MGM Resorts International reported revenue of $17.5B in FY2025 versus $9.7B in FY2021, a compound +16.0%/yr. Reported net income was $206M in FY2025, compounding −36.3%/yr from FY2021.
MGM screens 29% overvalued. Compare with Las Vegas Sands Corp →
Peer Group
Resorts & Casinos · 74 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Resorts & Casinos median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 66/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Resorts & Casinos stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 1, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Sands Corp LVS | $46.23 | $51.60 | +12% |
| Galaxy Entertainment Group 0027 | HK$33.86 | HK$40.46 | +19% |
| Sands China Ltd 1928 | HK$14.45 | HK$19.10 | +32% |
| Wynn Resorts, Limited WYNN | $102.97 | $69.39 | −33% |
| Red Rock Resorts, Inc RRR | $58.40 | $18.01 | −69% |
| Boyd Gaming Corporation BYD | $80.63 | $151.24 | +88% |
| Caesars Entertainment, Inc CZR | $29.63 | $80.92 | +173% |
| Genting Singapore Limited G13 | 0.6700 SGD | 0.6900 SGD | +3% |
| Vail Resorts, Inc MTN | $148.36 | $132.94 | −10% |
| MGM China Holdings 2282 | HK$10.42 | HK$24.07 | +131% |
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