EN DE

MGM China Holdings Ltd (2282) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$38.0B (≈ $4.8B) · ISIN KYG607441022

What is MGM China Holdings Ltd really worth?

MC MGM China Holdings Ltd 2282 · HK
PriceHK$10.18
Fair ValueHK$24.07
Upside+136.4%
Quality79/100

A strong business, trading 58% below our fair value of HK$24.07.

Watch MGM China Holdings Ltd for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card. Watch for free

Strengths

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +46.8 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 14.6% net margin
✓Ranks above peers (11/15)
✓Wide moat 78/100

Risks

!High debt · generates free cash flow
!The models disagree: range HK$17.08 to HK$49.72

For context

·5.92% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range HK$17.08 – HK$49.72

Fair value as of: Aug 19, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 16 days ago

Share price −9.3% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The rarer combination: high quality (79/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$17.08). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • The model range is unusually wide (HK$17.08 to HK$49.72). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$16.42 HK$2.72 Fair Value HK$24.07 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$2.72 – HK$16.42 · fair‑value band HK$17.08 – HK$49.72 · the HK$10.18 price screens below the HK$24.07 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free Discover now →

Analysis

MGM China Holdings Ltd (2282) currently trades at HK$10.18, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$24.07, implying the stock looks roughly 57.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 79/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$46.31 per share, and 21 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$10.18 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at HK$7.18, and 5 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, MGM China Holdings Ltd generated revenue of HK$34.8B at a net margin of 14.6%. Revenue grew 19.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 268.9%. Net debt stands at HK$14.8B. Fundamentals as of Aug 19, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$17.08 (bear case) to HK$49.72 (bull case); at HK$10.18, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 12% fair-value upside, at 136%, 2282 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$0.0656 per share, which is 0.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF HK$27.88 HK$47.74 HK$105.81 74
EPV HK$12.85 HK$15.38 HK$17.59 74
Growth DCF HK$26.40 HK$53.34 HK$105.33 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$27.88 HK$47.74 HK$105.81 74
Owner Earnings HK$21.04 HK$50.82 HK$113.33 70
5Y Revenue Exit HK$11.97 HK$20.55 HK$36.88 70
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$21.02 HK$39.99 HK$74.74 71
5Y P/E Exit HK$21.79 HK$46.31 HK$77.78 68
10Y Revenue Exit HK$16.26 HK$29.58 HK$42.50 66
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$22.98 HK$46.98 HK$90.23 64
10Y P/E Exit HK$23.53 HK$48.47 HK$91.05 60
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$9.09 HK$63.40 HK$88.98 63
Lynch FV HK$19.39 HK$27.70 HK$36.01 61
PEG = 1.0 HK$19.39 HK$27.70 HK$36.01 57
EPV HK$12.85 HK$15.38 HK$17.59 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$5.20 HK$10.80 HK$17.14 66
DDM Multi-Stage HK$5.20 HK$9.11 HK$11.34 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$22.06 HK$29.41 HK$36.77 63
P/S Multiple HK$8.25 HK$11.00 HK$13.75 58
P/B Multiple HK$2.57 HK$3.42 HK$4.28 55
EV/EBIT HK$21.56 HK$29.52 HK$37.47 66
EV/EBITDA HK$18.67 HK$25.67 HK$32.66 67
EV/Revenue HK$5.40 HK$8.70 HK$12.00 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.4300 HK$0.5700 HK$0.8600 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$26.40 HK$53.34 HK$105.33 74
Rev-Margin DCF HK$11.97 HK$22.48 HK$38.16 70
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$4.59 HK$7.18 HK$136.81 64
ROIC Compounder HK$15.44 HK$21.72 HK$29.81 71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$26.77 HK$38.25 HK$49.72 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$46.31) versus Asset-Based (HK$0.5700). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (74).

Notify me when 2282 reaches fair value

Put 2282 on your watchlist. We get in touch as soon as price and fair value meet or the trend turns.

Set up alert →

Free, no payment details. Unsubscribe anytime in one click.

Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 7.5 as of Jul 2, 2026
P/S ratio 1.10 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) HK$0.7000 price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.5
Dividend yield 5.9% payout 86.1%
Net margin 14.6% FY2025
Return on equity 269% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 7.7% avg 5y
Operating margin 18.5% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$34.8B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +19.5% 3y avg +87.6%
EPS growth (YoY) +39.7%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$7.2B FY2025
Net debt HK$14.8B FY2025 · ≈ 2.1 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 79/100

Of which business quality 73 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 26

Profitability 90
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 73
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 83
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 32
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 93
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 54
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 20
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 3
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 81
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

MGM China Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the development, ownership, and operation of gaming and lodging resorts in the Greater China region.

Full company description

MGM China Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the development, ownership, and operation of gaming and lodging resorts in the Greater China region. The company develops and operates casino games of chance and other casino games, and related hotel and resort facilities, as well as provides hotel management services; and develops integrated resorts in Macau. It owns and operates MGM Macau, an integrated resort that includes a casino with slot machines, gaming tables, multiple VIP, and private gaming areas; a hotel with rooms, suites, and villas; and amenities, including restaurants, retail outlets, pool, and spa facilities, as well as a convention space and museum. The company also owns MGM COTAI, a resort that consists of a casino with slot machines and gaming tables; hotel with rooms, suites, and skylofts; restaurants and bars; retail outlets; and meeting space, as well as other non-gaming offerings. In addition, it is involved in the provision of outsourcing services, including information technology, accounting, human resources, hotel reservation, and convention consultation. The company was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Macau. MGM China Holdings Limited operates as a subsidiary of MGM Resorts International Holdings, Ltd,

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

MGM China Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$34.8B in FY2025 versus HK$9.4B in FY2021, a compound +38.7%/yr. Reported net income was HK$5.1B in FY2025.

Growth Quality 100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$34.8B
Latest YoY
+10.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+87.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+46.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (17Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+10.3%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, EBIT basis) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+23.6% (17.7 + 5.9)
Revenue +38.7%/yr
FY21 HK$9.4B
FY22 HK$5.3B
FY23 HK$24.7B
FY24 HK$31.4B
FY25 HK$34.8B
Net income
FY21 −HK$3.8B
FY22 −HK$5.2B
FY23 HK$2.6B
FY24 HK$4.6B
FY25 HK$5.1B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +0.4 % p.a.
Revenue per share +5.2 %

of which total revenue +5.2 % · buybacks/dilution +0.0 %

EBIT margin −1.0 %
Tax rate −0.1 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −3.4 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

Watch 2282: get an alert when its fair value changes →

Run the numbers yourself: free valuation calculators
DCF CalculatorGraham NumberPeter Lynch FormulaDDM CalculatorFama-French ModelIntrinsic Value
Share or link this analysis
𝕏 Post WhatsApp LinkedIn Reddit
For bloggers & editors: embed code + live data

For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.

MGM China Holdings Ltd · Fair Value
HK$24.07 +58%Fair Value
Calculator →

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MGM China Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2282

Peer Group

Resorts & Casinos · 74 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 79 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +136% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 269% · Top 25%
Return on assets 14% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 15% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 19% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 20% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 5.9% · Above median
Debt / equity 4.04× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Resorts & Casinos median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 7.5× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 11.71× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 1.09× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 0.7× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 5.3× · Cheaper than median
PEG 2.70× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE100 · sector 31
FUTURE98 · sector 25
PAST100 · sector 19
HEALTH0 · sector 82
DIVIDEND100 · sector 61

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Gambling

Similar stocks

10 more Resorts & Casinos stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 19, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Las Vegas Sands Corp LVS $46.23 $51.60 +12%
Galaxy Entertainment Group 0027 HK$33.86 HK$40.46 +19%
Sands China Ltd 1928 HK$14.45 HK$19.10 +32%
MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries, MGM $42.28 $17.73 −58%
Wynn Resorts, Limited WYNN $102.97 $69.39 −33%
Red Rock Resorts, Inc RRR $58.40 $18.01 −69%
Boyd Gaming Corporation BYD $80.63 $151.24 +88%
Caesars Entertainment, Inc CZR $29.63 $80.92 +173%
Genting Singapore Limited G13 0.6700 SGD 0.6900 SGD +3%
Vail Resorts, Inc MTN $148.36 $132.94 −10%

Compare MGM China Holdings Ltd with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

Free, no sign-up

Explore undervalued stocks

More undervalued Consumer Cyclical stocks →

All undervalued stocks TechnologyFinancial ServicesHealthcareConsumer CyclicalConsumer DefensiveCommunication ServicesIndustrialsEnergyBasic MaterialsReal EstateUtilities Deeply Undervalued StocksUndervalued Blue-Chip StocksUndervalued Small-Cap StocksUndervalued Dividend Stocks

Try a ready-made strategy

Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.

🥇 Backtested Best 🏆 Big Names ⭐ Top Rated 💎 Quality on Sale 🚀 Profitable Growth 🧊 Quality Compounders 💵 Dividend Stars 📈 Strong Momentum 📉 Fallen Angels ⚖️ Deeply Undervalued 🔍 Small-Cap Gems 🏰 Moat at a Fair Price 💼 Insider Buying 🎩 Buffett-Style Quality 📚 Peter Lynch GARP 🧮 Greenblatt Magic Formula 🛡️ Graham Defensive

Discover tools

Stock screener Filter by region, size and sector Compare tool Two stocks side by side Extrinsic Value Calculator (Options) Splits an option premium into intrinsic and extrinsic (time) value. Peter Lynch Fair Value Formula & Calculator Apply Peter Lynch's fair value formula in seconds: fair P/E ≈ earnings growth (+ dividend) - free, with formula and example.

Frequently asked questions

Is MGM China Holdings Ltd (2282) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 19, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$24.07 versus a price of HK$10.18, about +136% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 2282?
Our model-based fair value for MGM China Holdings Ltd is HK$24.07 (as of Aug 19, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$10.18.
What is the quality score of 2282?
MGM China Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 79/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of MGM China Holdings Ltd (2282)?
MGM China Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$34.8B (latest available figure, as of Aug 19, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 2282?
The net profit margin of MGM China Holdings Ltd is about 14.6%, meaning it keeps roughly 14.6% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does MGM China Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
MGM China Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.92% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 19, 2026).
Free · no account needed

Watch MGM China Holdings Ltd in the live analysis

One click puts MGM China Holdings Ltd on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.

Watch for free →

Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.