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MGM China Holdings (2282) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$38.0B

MC MGM China Holdings 2282 · HK
PriceHK$10.15
Fair ValueHK$24.07
Upside+137.1%
Quality79/100
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Healthy Growth
Solidly profitable · 14.6% net margin
High debt · generates free cash flow
6.57% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (11/15)
Wide moat 78/100
Evidence: High Range HK$17.08 – HK$49.72 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday

Share price −0.7% over the past month.

A strong business, screening 137% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The rarer combination: high quality (79/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$17.08). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • The model range is unusually wide (HK$17.08 to HK$49.72). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$16.42 HK$2.72 Fair Value HK$24.07 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$2.72 – HK$16.42 · fair‑value band HK$17.08 – HK$49.72 · the HK$10.15 price screens below the HK$24.07 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

MGM China Holdings (2282) currently trades at HK$10.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$24.07, implying the stock looks roughly 137.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 79/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, MGM China Holdings generated revenue of HK$34.8B at a net margin of 14.6%. Revenue grew 19.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 268.9%. Net debt stands at HK$14.8B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$17.08 (bear case) to HK$49.72 (bull case); at HK$10.15, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 8% fair-value upside, at 137%, 2282 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$26.40 HK$53.34 HK$105.33 80
Residual Income HK$4.59 HK$7.18 HK$136.81 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$11.97 HK$22.48 HK$38.16 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$27.88 HK$47.74 HK$105.81 38
Owner Earnings HK$21.04 HK$50.82 HK$113.33 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$11.97 HK$20.55 HK$36.88 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$21.02 HK$39.99 HK$74.74 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$21.79 HK$46.31 HK$77.78 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$16.26 HK$29.58 HK$42.50 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$22.98 HK$46.98 HK$90.23 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$23.53 HK$48.47 HK$91.05 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$9.09 HK$63.40 HK$88.98 54
Lynch FV HK$19.39 HK$27.70 HK$36.01 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$19.39 HK$27.70 HK$36.01 46
EPV HK$12.85 HK$15.38 HK$17.59 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$5.20 HK$10.80 HK$17.14 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$5.20 HK$9.11 HK$11.34 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$22.06 HK$29.41 HK$36.77 63
P/S Multiple HK$8.25 HK$11.00 HK$13.75 58
P/B Multiple HK$2.57 HK$3.42 HK$4.28 55
EV/EBIT HK$21.56 HK$29.52 HK$37.47 53
EV/EBITDA HK$18.67 HK$25.67 HK$32.66 54
EV/Revenue HK$5.40 HK$8.70 HK$12.00 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.4300 HK$0.5700 HK$0.8600 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$26.40 HK$53.34 HK$105.33 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$11.97 HK$22.48 HK$38.16 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$4.59 HK$7.18 HK$136.81 76
ROIC Compounder HK$15.44 HK$21.72 HK$29.81 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$26.77 HK$38.25 HK$49.72 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$46.31) versus Asset-Based (HK$0.5700). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$34.8B
Revenue growth (YoY) +19.5%
Net margin 14.6%
Return on equity 269%
Free cash flow HK$7.2B FY2025
P/E ratio 7.5 as of Jul 2, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 18.5%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.7000
Dividend yield 6.6%
EPS growth (YoY) +39.7%
Net debt HK$14.8B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 79/100

Of which business quality 73 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 25

Profitability 90
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 73
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 83
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 32
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 93
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 53
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 19
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 3
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 81
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

MGM China Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the development, ownership, and operation of gaming and lodging resorts in the Greater China region.

Full company description

MGM China Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the development, ownership, and operation of gaming and lodging resorts in the Greater China region. The company develops and operates casino games of chance and other casino games, and related hotel and resort facilities, as well as provides hotel management services; and develops integrated resorts in Macau. It owns and operates MGM Macau, an integrated resort that includes a casino with slot machines, gaming tables, multiple VIP, and private gaming areas; a hotel with rooms, suites, and villas; and amenities, including restaurants, retail outlets, pool, and spa facilities, as well as a convention space and museum. The company also owns MGM COTAI, a resort that consists of a casino with slot machines and gaming tables; hotel with rooms, suites, and skylofts; restaurants and bars; retail outlets; and meeting space, as well as other non-gaming offerings. In addition, it is involved in the provision of outsourcing services, including information technology, accounting, human resources, hotel reservation, and convention consultation. The company was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Macau. MGM China Holdings Limited operates as a subsidiary of MGM Resorts International Holdings, Ltd,

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

MGM China Holdings reported revenue of HK$34.8B in FY2025 versus HK$9.4B in FY2021, a compound +38.7%/yr. Reported net income was HK$5.1B in FY2025.

Growth Quality 100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$34.8B
Latest YoY
+10.8%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+87.6%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+46.8%
Avg. growth/yr (17Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+10.3%
Revenue +38.7%/yr
FY21 HK$9.4B
FY22 HK$5.3B
FY23 HK$24.7B
FY24 HK$31.4B
FY25 HK$34.8B
Net income
FY21 −HK$3.8B
FY22 −HK$5.2B
FY23 HK$2.6B
FY24 HK$4.6B
FY25 HK$5.1B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +0.4 % p.a.
Revenue per share +5.2 pp

of which total revenue +5.2 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp

EBIT margin −1.0 pp
Tax rate −0.1 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −3.6 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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MGM China Holdings · Fair Value
HK$24.07 +137%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MGM China Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2282

Peer Group

Resorts & Casinos · 76 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 79 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +137% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 269% · Top 25%
Return on assets 14% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 15% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 19% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 20% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 6.6% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 4.04× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Resorts & Casinos median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 7.5× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 11.71× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 1.09× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 0.7× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 5.3× · Cheaper than median
PEG 2.70× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 26
FUTURE 98 · sector 30
PAST 100 · sector 19
HEALTH 0 · sector 83
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 50

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Gambling

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Resorts & Casinos stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Las Vegas Sands Corp LVS $45.68 $51.60 +13%
Galaxy Entertainment Group 0027 HK$34.20 HK$40.46 +18%
Sands China Ltd 1928 HK$14.34 HK$2.05 -86%
MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries, MGM $43.98 $17.73 -60%
Wynn Resorts, Limited WYNN $102.97 $69.39 -33%
Red Rock Resorts, Inc RRR $63.09 $18.01 -71%
Boyd Gaming Corporation BYD $82.98 $151.24 +82%
Caesars Entertainment, Inc CZR $29.74 $80.92 +172%
Genting Singapore Limited G13 0.6400 SGD 0.6900 SGD +8%
Vail Resorts, Inc MTN $148.36 $132.94 -10%

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Frequently asked questions

Is MGM China Holdings (2282) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$24.07 versus a price of HK$10.15, about +137% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 2282?
Our model-based fair value for MGM China Holdings is HK$24.07 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$10.15.
What is the quality score of 2282?
MGM China Holdings has a Quality Score of 79/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of MGM China Holdings (2282)?
MGM China Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$34.8B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 2282?
The net profit margin of MGM China Holdings is about 14.6%, meaning it keeps roughly 14.6% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does MGM China Holdings pay a dividend?
MGM China Holdings currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.57% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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