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Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $6.4B · ISIN US1033041013

What is Boyd Gaming Corporation really worth?

BG Boyd Gaming Corporation logo Boyd Gaming Corporation BYD · US
Price$77.79
Fair Value$151.24
Upside+94.4%
Quality62/100

A solid business, trading 49% below our fair value of $151.24.

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Strengths

✓Highly profitable · 44.8% net margin
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓Wide moat 76/100

Risks

!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +13.4 %/yr)
!Mixed vs. peers (8/15)
!Weak on future: 3 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 19 out of 100

For context

·0.95% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range $103.63 – $198.84

Fair value as of: Aug 27, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 8 days ago

Share price −9.9% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case ($103.63). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (62/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range ($103.63 to $198.84) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$91.26 $44.37 Fair Value $151.24 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $44.37 – $91.26 · fair‑value band $103.63 – $198.84 · the $77.79 price screens below the $151.24 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.

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Analysis

Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD) currently trades at $77.79, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $151.24, implying the stock looks roughly 48.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $469.50 per share, and 14 of the 26 models we run sit above the $77.79 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $23.51, and 12 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Boyd Gaming Corporation generated revenue of $4.1B at a net margin of 44.8%. Revenue grew 0.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 94.3%. Net debt stands at $2.9B. Fundamentals as of Aug 27, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $103.63 (bear case) to $198.84 (bull case); at $77.79, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 12% fair-value upside, at 94%, BYD screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $14.87 per share, which is 9.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $32.64 $59.89 $99.02 78
Growth DCF $33.59 $57.88 $90.78 77
Owner Earnings $199.40 $308.68 $465.59 76
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $32.64 $59.89 $99.02 78
Owner Earnings $199.40 $308.68 $465.59 76
5Y Revenue Exit $25.29 $50.94 $83.06 70
5Y EBITDA Exit $77.59 $147.37 $228.23 73
5Y P/E Exit $226.95 $422.73 $627.05 69
10Y Revenue Exit $26.21 $49.75 $80.17 65
10Y EBITDA Exit $59.95 $114.68 $187.03 66
10Y P/E Exit $152.51 $300.12 $480.61 62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $168.63 $487.86 $643.93 65
Lynch FV $100.86 $144.08 $187.30 61
PEG = 1.0 $100.86 $144.08 $187.30 57
EPV $30.85 $39.32 $46.62 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $6.87 $13.70 $20.74 67
DDM Multi-Stage $6.87 $10.83 $14.46 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $409.17 $545.57 $681.96 63
P/S Multiple $49.55 $66.06 $82.58 58
P/B Multiple $105.28 $140.37 $175.47 55
EV/EBIT $136.48 $189.56 $242.65 66
EV/EBITDA $120.05 $167.66 $215.26 67
EV/Revenue $23.48 $43.30 $63.11 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $17.55 $23.51 $35.09 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $33.59 $57.88 $90.78 77
Rev-Margin DCF $25.29 $51.34 $80.81 71
Economic Profit
Residual Income $249.36 $565.18 $24,975 64
ROIC Compounder $30.85 $41.44 $55.93 71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $328.65 $469.50 $610.35 67

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($469.50) versus Dividend Discount ($10.83). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 3.4
P/S ratio 1.55 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $22.62 price ÷ EPS = P/E 3.4
Dividend yield 1.0% payout 3.3%
Net margin 45.0% FY2025
Return on equity 94.3% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 14.3% avg 5y
Operating margin 18.5% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $4.1B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +0.6% 3y avg +4.8%
EPS growth (YoY) +4.7%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $388M FY2025
Net debt $2.9B FY2025 · ≈ 7.5 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 62/100

Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39

Profitability 77
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 54
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 35
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 46
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 43
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 65
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 33
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 19
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Boyd Gaming Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a multi-jurisdictional gaming company in the United States and Canada. The company operates through Las Vegas Locals, Downtown Las Vegas, Midwest & South, and Online segments. It owns and operates casinos; Boyd Interactive, an online casino gaming business; and a travel agency.

Full company description

Boyd Gaming Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a multi-jurisdictional gaming company in the United States and Canada. The company operates through Las Vegas Locals, Downtown Las Vegas, Midwest & South, and Online segments. It owns and operates casinos; Boyd Interactive, an online casino gaming business; and a travel agency. The company was formerly known as The Boyd Group and changed its name to Boyd Gaming Corporation in April 1993. Boyd Gaming Corporation was founded in 1975 and is headquartered in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Boyd Gaming Corporation reported revenue of $4.1B in FY2025 versus $3.4B in FY2021, a compound +5.0%/yr. Reported net income was $1.8B in FY2025, compounding +41.2%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$4.1B
Latest YoY
+4.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+13.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (32Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.9%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, EBIT basis) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+21.9% (20.9 + 1.0)
Revenue +5.0%/yr
FY21 $3.4B
FY22 $3.6B
FY23 $3.7B
FY24 $3.9B
FY25 $4.1B
Net income +41.2%/yr
FY21 $464M
FY22 $639M
FY23 $620M
FY24 $578M
FY25 $1.8B

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Boyd Gaming Corporation · Fair Value
$151.24 +49%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Boyd Gaming Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BYD

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Resorts & Casinos · 74 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 62 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +94% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 94% · Top 25%
Return on assets 8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 45% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 18% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.0% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.78× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Resorts & Casinos median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 3.4× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 2.45× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 1.56× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 16.5× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 6.9× · Cheaper than median
PEG 3.03× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE100 · sector 31
FUTURE3 · sector 25
PAST100 · sector 19
HEALTH61 · sector 82
DIVIDEND19 · sector 61

Insider activity: 46/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Gambling

Similar stocks

10 more Resorts & Casinos stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 27, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Las Vegas Sands Corp LVS $46.23 $51.60 +12%
Galaxy Entertainment Group 0027 HK$33.86 HK$40.46 +19%
Sands China Ltd 1928 HK$14.45 HK$19.10 +32%
MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries, MGM $42.28 $17.73 −58%
Wynn Resorts, Limited WYNN $102.97 $69.39 −33%
Red Rock Resorts, Inc RRR $58.40 $18.01 −69%
Caesars Entertainment, Inc CZR $29.63 $80.92 +173%
Genting Singapore Limited G13 0.6700 SGD 0.6900 SGD +3%
Vail Resorts, Inc MTN $148.36 $132.94 −10%
MGM China Holdings 2282 HK$10.42 HK$24.07 +131%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $151.24 versus a price of $77.79, about +94% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of BYD?
Our model-based fair value for Boyd Gaming Corporation is $151.24 (as of Aug 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $77.79.
What is the quality score of BYD?
Boyd Gaming Corporation has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD)?
Boyd Gaming Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.1B (latest available figure, as of Aug 27, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of BYD?
The net profit margin of Boyd Gaming Corporation is about 44.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 44.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Boyd Gaming Corporation pay a dividend?
Boyd Gaming Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.95% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 27, 2026).
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