Moog Inc (MOG-A) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $12.5B
Moog Inc
MOG-A · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $133.37 to $131.75 (−1.2%) since Jul 19, 2026. Share price +9.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 69% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($205.47). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($64.18 to $205.47). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $65.31 – $428.82 · fair‑value band $64.18 – $205.47 · the $427.16 price screens above the $131.75 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Moog Inc (MOG-A) currently trades at $427.16, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $131.75, implying the stock looks roughly 69.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Moog Inc generated revenue of $4.2B at a net margin of 6.8%. Revenue grew 12.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.4%. Net debt stands at $884M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $64.18 (bear case) to $205.47 (bull case); at $427.16, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 151% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -60% fair-value upside, at -69%, MOG-A screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($156.27) versus Dividend Discount ($19.83). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 85
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Moog Inc. designs, manufactures, and integrates precision motion and fluid controls and controls systems for original equipment manufacturers and end users in the aerospace, defense, and industrial markets in the United States, Germany, and internationally.
Full company description
Moog Inc. designs, manufactures, and integrates precision motion and fluid controls and controls systems for original equipment manufacturers and end users in the aerospace, defense, and industrial markets in the United States, Germany, and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Space and Defense, Military Aircraft, Commercial Aircraft, and Industrial. Its Space and Defense segment provides critical defense components and motion-control systems used in defense vehicle platforms, missile systems, naval ships and submarines; high-performance components and systems used for space launch vehicles, satellites and spacecraft vehicles. The Military Aircraft segment designs, manufacture and integrate primary and secondary flight controls, mission-critical actuation systems, and products for various military fixed-wing aircraft and rotorcraft for both original equipment manufacturers and aftermarket customers. The Commercial Aircraft segment designs, manufactures, and integrates flight-critical control systems and products for various commercial aircraft including widebody, narrowbody, business jets and regional jets. The company's Industrial segment provides customized and high-performance motion control components and systems for industrial automation, medical, simulation, and test and energy applications, including precision components used in heavy machinery, medical devices and components, power generation products, as well as simulation platforms for flight training and material testing applications. The company was formerly known as Moog Valve Company. Moog Inc. was incorporated in 1951 and is headquartered in East Aurora, New York.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Moog Inc reported revenue of $3.9B in FY2025 versus $2.9B in FY2021, a compound +7.9%/yr. Reported net income was $235M in FY2025, compounding +10.6%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +4.0 pp · buybacks/dilution +2.6 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
MOG-A screens 69% overvalued. Compare with General Electric Company →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Moog Inc (MOG.A) (Q3 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Sales and Defense Surge Masked by ...
- Moog Q3 Earnings Call Highlights
- Moog (MOG.A) Q3 Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates
- Moog Inc. Announces Cash Dividend
Peer Group
Aerospace & Defense · 224 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| General Electric Company GE | $365.33 | $116.71 | -68% |
| RTX Corporation RTX | $222.76 | $88.37 | -60% |
| Airbus SE 1AIR | €213.05 | €86.20 | -60% |
| The Boeing Company BA | $231.20 | $49.09 | -79% |
| China CSSC Holdings 600150 | ¥33.89 | ¥21.90 | -35% |
| HD Hyundai Heavy Industries Co 329180 | 496,000 KRW | 272,966 KRW | -45% |
| Hanwha Aerospace Co 012450 | 1,156,000 KRW | 573,468 KRW | -50% |
| ASELSAN Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi ASELS | 346.75 TRY | 130.70 TRY | -62% |
| Saab AB SAABB | kr 680.10 | kr 212.84 | -69% |
| Kongsberg Gruppen ASA KOG | kr 330.10 | kr 101.07 | -69% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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