Moog Inc (MOG-A) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $12.5B · ISIN US6153942023
What is Moog Inc really worth?
Moog Inc
MOG-A · US
A solid business, but trading 217% above our fair value of $116.79.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 27, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 8 days ago
Share price −9.5% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($182.13). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($56.89 to $182.13). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $65.31 – $445.38 · fair‑value band $56.89 – $182.13 · the $370.12 price screens above the $116.79 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
Analysis
Moog Inc (MOG-A) currently trades at $370.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $116.79, implying the stock looks roughly 217.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $138.52 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $370.12 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $17.58, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Moog Inc generated revenue of $4.2B at a net margin of 6.8%. Revenue grew 12.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.4%. Net debt stands at $884M. Fundamentals as of Aug 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $56.89 (bear case) to $182.13 (bull case); at $370.12, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 117% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −44% fair-value upside, at −68%, MOG-A screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 11 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $7.13 per share, which is 6.1 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($138.52) versus Dividend Discount ($17.58). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 71
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Moog Inc. designs, manufactures, and integrates precision motion and fluid controls and controls systems for original equipment manufacturers and end users in the aerospace, defense, and industrial markets in the United States, Germany, and internationally.
Full company description
Moog Inc. designs, manufactures, and integrates precision motion and fluid controls and controls systems for original equipment manufacturers and end users in the aerospace, defense, and industrial markets in the United States, Germany, and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Space and Defense, Military Aircraft, Commercial Aircraft, and Industrial. Its Space and Defense segment provides critical defense components and motion-control systems used in defense vehicle platforms, missile systems, naval ships and submarines; high-performance components and systems used for space launch vehicles, satellites and spacecraft vehicles. The Military Aircraft segment designs, manufacture and integrate primary and secondary flight controls, mission-critical actuation systems, and products for various military fixed-wing aircraft and rotorcraft for both original equipment manufacturers and aftermarket customers. The Commercial Aircraft segment designs, manufactures, and integrates flight-critical control systems and products for various commercial aircraft including widebody, narrowbody, business jets and regional jets. The company's Industrial segment provides customized and high-performance motion control components and systems for industrial automation, medical, simulation, and test and energy applications, including precision components used in heavy machinery, medical devices and components, power generation products, as well as simulation platforms for flight training and material testing applications. The company was formerly known as Moog Valve Company. Moog Inc. was incorporated in 1951 and is headquartered in East Aurora, New York.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Moog Inc reported revenue of $3.9B in FY2025 versus $2.9B in FY2021, a compound +7.9%/yr. Reported net income was $235M in FY2025, compounding +10.6%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +4.0 % · buybacks/dilution +2.5 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
MOG-A screens 217% overvalued. Compare with General Electric Company →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- 3 Reasons Growth Investors Will Love Moog (MOG.A)
- Moog Celebrates 75 Years of Innovation with New Advanced Integrated Manufacturing Facility, Workforce Investment and STEM Scholarship Initia
- Moog Inc. (MOG.A) Hit a 52 Week High, Can the Run Continue?
Peer Group
Aerospace & Defense · 229 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| General Electric Company GE | $335.71 | $116.71 | −65% |
| RTX Corporation RTX | $212.08 | $88.37 | −58% |
| Airbus SE AIR | €213.00 | €117.01 | −45% |
| Lockheed Martin Corporation LMT | $565.89 | $419.01 | −26% |
| Howmet Aerospace Inc HWM | $264.85 | $50.43 | −81% |
| General Dynamics Corporation GD | $379.32 | $274.32 | −28% |
| Northrop Grumman Corporation NOC | $545.57 | $356.59 | −35% |
| TransDigm Group TDG | $1,235 | $571.03 | −54% |
| L3Harris Technologies, Inc LHX | $262.82 | $146.55 | −44% |
| Thales S.A HO | €243.70 | €171.13 | −30% |
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