Bank Millennium S.A (MIL) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · PL · Market cap 25.2B PLN
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from 12.89 PLN to 11.37 PLN (−11.8%) since Jul 13, 2026. Share price +0.5% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 46% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (14.20 PLN). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 3.25 PLN – 21.13 PLN · fair‑value band 8.53 PLN – 14.20 PLN · the 20.91 PLN price screens above the 11.37 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Bank Millennium S.A (MIL) currently trades at 20.91 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 11.37 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 45.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Bank Millennium S.A generated revenue of 7.0B PLN at a net margin of 18.9%. Revenue declined 2.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.1%. Net debt stands at 4.8B PLN. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 8.53 PLN (bear case) to 14.20 PLN (bull case); at 20.91 PLN, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 59% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 47% fair-value upside, at -46%, MIL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (10.54 PLN) versus Dividend Discount (3.54 PLN). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Bank Millennium S.A. provides various banking products and services in Poland. It operates through Retail Customer; Corporate Customer; and Treasury, Assets and Liabilities Management, and Other segments.
Full company description
Bank Millennium S.A. provides various banking products and services in Poland. It operates through Retail Customer; Corporate Customer; and Treasury, Assets and Liabilities Management, and Other segments. The company offers current, savings, foreign currency savings, individual investment retirement, private banking, business, and VAT accounts; and term and structured deposits. It also provides investment advisory; investment plan and funds; credit, debit, and prepaid cards; cash, promotional online, mortgage, home equity, renewable loans, as well as consolidation loan with fixed interest rate, EKO promotional mortgage, personal account overdraft limit, loans secured with assets accumulated in the bank, and loans for purchase of securities; current account overdraft and current account overdraft increase; and property, motor, travel, your assistant, loan under protection, mortgage loan, credit card, and payment cards insurance products. In addition, the company offers Millennium 360 Prestige, Millennium Prestige World, and Prestige Personal Account; Millennium TFI Funds; domestic and foreign investment funds, such as polish and foreign investment funds, investors TFI, Goldman Sachs TFI, Esaliens TFI, and Franklin Templeton; brokerage services; and e-banking. Further, it provides loan with a de minimis guarantee, cash loan and overdraft facility in PLN, leasing; bank guarantee and document collection; additional services, including accounting, online store, payment gateway, payment terminal, and currency exchange services; and ongoing support, financing, and trade finance, as well as treasure products. Bank Millennium S.A. was formerly known as BIG Bank GDANSKI SA and changed its name to Bank Millennium S.A. in January 2003. The company was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Warsaw, Poland. Bank Millennium S.A. is a subsidiary of Banco Comercial Português, S.A.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Bank Millennium S.A reported revenue of 7.2B PLN in FY2025 versus 3.8B PLN in FY2021, a compound +17.2%/yr. Reported net income was 1.2B PLN in FY2025.
of which total revenue +15.0 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
MIL screens 46% overvalued. Compare with PT Bank Central Asia Tbk →
Peer Group
Banks - Regional · 1086 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT Bank Central Asia Tbk BBCA | 6,350 IDR | 4,637 IDR | -27% |
| KB Financial Group 105560 | 168,100 KRW | 220,258 KRW | +31% |
| PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk BBRI | 3,110 IDR | 3,792 IDR | +22% |
| PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk BMRI | 4,130 IDR | 6,067 IDR | +47% |
| Banco Bradesco S.A BBD | 5,120 ARS | 8,400 ARS | +64% |
| Shinhan Financial Group 055550 | 103,800 KRW | 146,032 KRW | +41% |
| Hana Financial Group 086790 | 127,900 KRW | 210,506 KRW | +65% |
| Lloyds Banking Group LYG | 4,138 ARS | 8,275 ARS | +100% |
| Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam, VCB | 59,500 VND | 45,959 VND | -23% |
| Woori Financial Group 316140 | 33,000 KRW | 60,758 KRW | +84% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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