MDA Space Ltd. (MDA) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $5.5B
What is MDA Space Ltd. really worth?
MDA Space Ltd.
MDA · US
A solid business, but trading 319% above our fair value of $6.94.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $6.90 to $6.94 (+0.6%) since Jul 18, 2026. Share price −15.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($8.68). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (6 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
6‑month range $23.61 – $48.68 · fair‑value band $5.21 – $8.68 · the $29.06 price screens above the $6.94 fair value. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
MDA Space Ltd. (MDA) currently trades at $29.06, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.94, implying the stock looks roughly 318.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $26.07 per share, and 2 of the 24 models we run sit above the $29.06 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $4.48, and 22 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, MDA Space Ltd. generated revenue of $2.1B at a net margin of 2.2%. Revenue grew 0.2% year over year. Net debt stands at $189M. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 51.0. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $5.21 (bear case) to $8.68 (bull case); at $29.06, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −44% fair-value upside, at −76%, MDA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.3857 per share, which is 5.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($26.07) versus Economic Profit ($4.48). Highest evidence: EPV (74).
Notify me when MDA reaches fair value
Put MDA on your watchlist. We get in touch as soon as price and fair value meet or the trend turns.
Set up alert →Free, no payment details. Unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 12
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
MDA Space Ltd. provides space technology solutions and services in Canada, the United States, Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and internationally.
Full company description
MDA Space Ltd. provides space technology solutions and services in Canada, the United States, Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and internationally. It offers satellite communications solutions, such as space-based broadband Internet, direct-to-device satellite communication, and IoT connectivity; MDA AURORA, a software-defined digital satellite product line; and autonomous robotics systems and services used to operate in space and on the surfaces of the Moon and Mars. The company also provides robotic systems, robotic interfaces, tooling, robotic ground control stations, and operations services; electro-optic and light detection and ranging sensors, vision and targeting systems, guidance, navigation, and control subsystems and planetary rover locomotion subsystems; MDA SKYMAKER, a suite of scalable and modular space robotics; and Canadarm3, a robotics system. In addition, it offers satellite-generated imagery and data to deliver critical and value-added insights for end users, such as national security, climate change monitoring, and maritime surveillance; collection, processing, and dissemination of Earth imagery data from space; defense command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance solutions, including command and control systems and airborne surveillance solutions; aeronautical navigation information solutions; and long endurance uncrewed aerial vehicle surveillance services. Further, operates as an owner and operator of the RADARSAT-2 Earth observation satellite; and is involved in the operation of MDA CHORUS, an Earth observation mission. It serves governments and space agencies, commercial space companies, and defense and aerospace prime contractors in the space industry. The company was formerly known as MDA Ltd. and changed its name to MDA Space Ltd. in May 2024. MDA Space Ltd. was incorporated in 1969 and is headquartered in Brampton, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
MDA Space Ltd. reported revenue of C$1.2B in FY2025 versus C$377M in FY2021, a compound +33.3%/yr. Reported net income was C$79.0M in FY2025, compounding +142.3%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
MDA screens 319% overvalued. Compare with General Electric Company →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- 3 Stocks for Investors Seeking High Quality Value in Infrastructure Metals and Space
- Strong Second Quarter Leads to a More Favorable 2026 Guidance for MDA Space (MDA)
- Rocket Lab-built satellites for MDA Space begin operations in orbit
- Rocket Lab Satellite Platforms Built for MDA Space Successfully Reach Orbit, Supporting Globalstar Direct-to-Device Communications Services
Peer Group
Aerospace & Defense · 229 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| General Electric Company GE | $335.71 | $116.71 | −65% |
| RTX Corporation RTX | $212.08 | $88.37 | −58% |
| Airbus SE AIR | €213.00 | €117.01 | −45% |
| Lockheed Martin Corporation LMT | $565.89 | $419.01 | −26% |
| Howmet Aerospace Inc HWM | $264.85 | $50.43 | −81% |
| General Dynamics Corporation GD | $379.32 | $274.32 | −28% |
| Northrop Grumman Corporation NOC | $545.57 | $356.59 | −35% |
| TransDigm Group TDG | $1,235 | $571.03 | −54% |
| L3Harris Technologies, Inc LHX | $262.82 | $146.55 | −44% |
| Thales S.A HO | €243.70 | €171.13 | −30% |
Compare MDA Space Ltd. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Industrials stocks →
Try a ready-made strategy
Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.
Discover tools
Frequently asked questions
Is MDA Space Ltd. (MDA) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of MDA?
What is the quality score of MDA?
What is the revenue of MDA Space Ltd. (MDA)?
What is the net profit margin of MDA?
Watch MDA Space Ltd. in the live analysis
One click puts MDA Space Ltd. on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Watch for free →Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.