Matson Inc (MATX) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $6.4B · ISIN US57686G1058
What is Matson Inc really worth?
Matson Inc
MATX · US
A solid business, but trading 28% above our fair value of $173.95.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $177.60 to $173.95 (−2.1%) since Jul 16, 2026. Share price +4.1% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide ($98.25 to $308.79). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $54.67 – $224.81 · fair‑value band $98.25 – $308.79 · the $222.27 price screens above the $173.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Matson Inc (MATX) currently trades at $222.27, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $173.95, implying the stock looks roughly 27.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $261.80 per share, and 8 of the 26 models we run sit above the $222.27 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $20.05, and 18 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Matson Inc generated revenue of $3.3B at a net margin of 12.9%. Revenue declined 3.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.0%. Net debt stands at $585M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $98.25 (bear case) to $308.79 (bull case); at $222.27, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 157% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 42% fair-value upside, at −22%, MATX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $8.19 per share, which is 4.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($261.80) versus Dividend Discount ($20.05). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 79
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Matson, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the provision of ocean transportation and logistics services. It operates through two segments, Ocean Transportation and Logistics.
Full company description
Matson, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the provision of ocean transportation and logistics services. It operates through two segments, Ocean Transportation and Logistics. The company offers ocean freight transportation services to the domestic non-contiguous economies of Hawaii, Alaska and Guam, and to other island economies in Micronesia; and transports dry containers of mixed commodities, refrigerated commodities, food products, beverages, building materials, automobiles, household goods, livestock, seafood, general sustenance cargo, e-commerce related goods, garments, consumer electronics, footwear, retail merchandise, and other merchandise. It also operates an expedited service from China to Long Beach, California, and various islands in the South Pacific, as well as Okinawa, Japan; and provides stevedoring, refrigerated cargo, inland transportation, container equipment maintenance, and other terminal services on the Hawaiian islands of Oahu, Hawaii, Maui, and Kauai, as well as in the Alaska terminal locations of Anchorage, Kodiak, and Dutch Harbor. In addition, the company provides multimodal transportation brokerage of domestic and international rail intermodal, long-haul and regional highway trucking, specialized hauling, flat-bed and project, less-than-truckload (LCL), and expedited freight services; LCL consolidation and freight forwarding services; warehousing, trans-loading, value-added packaging and distribution services; purchase order management, booking services, and non-vessel operating common carrier freight forwarding services. It serves the U.S. military, freight forwarders and non-vessel owning common carriers, retailers and consumer goods manufacturers, and other customers. The company was formerly known as Alexander & Baldwin Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Matson, Inc. in June 2012. Matson, Inc. was founded in 1882 and is headquartered in Honolulu, Hawaii.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Matson Inc reported revenue of $3.3B in FY2025 versus $3.9B in FY2021, a compound −3.9%/yr. Reported net income was $445M in FY2025, compounding −16.8%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +6.6 % · buybacks/dilution +2.9 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
MATX screens 28% overvalued. Compare with Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Matson (MATX) Is a Great Choice for 'Trend' Investors, Here's Why
- Is Matson (MATX) Stock Outpacing Its Transportation Peers This Year?
- 5 Insightful Analyst Questions From Matson’s Q2 Earnings Call
- Here's Why Momentum in Matson (MATX) Should Keep going
Peer Group
Marine Shipping · 233 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Marine Shipping median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Marine Shipping stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited ADANIPORTS | ₹1,714 | ₹1,041 | −39% |
| A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S MAERSKA | kr 20,820 | kr 20,145 | −3% |
| 532921 532921 | ₹1,697 | ₹1,305 | −23% |
| COSCO SHIPPING Holdings 601919 | ¥16.06 | ¥49.90 | +211% |
| Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft, HLAG | €132.80 | €88.00 | −34% |
| Shanghai International Port (Group) Co 600018 | ¥5.17 | ¥6.15 | +19% |
| HMM Co 011200 | 21,450 KRW | 33,795 KRW | +58% |
| Orient Overseas (International) Limited 0316 | HK$166.90 | HK$237.61 | +42% |
| Ningbo Zhoushan Port Company 601018 | ¥3.39 | ¥5.58 | +65% |
| Qingdao Port International Co 601298 | ¥8.69 | ¥15.97 | +84% |
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