Hapag Lloyd AG (HLAG) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · DE · Market cap €22.5B · ISIN DE000HLAG475
What is Hapag Lloyd AG really worth?
A solid business, but trading 58% above our fair value of €88.00.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price +14.1% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€110.00). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €88.77 – €275.93 · fair‑value band €66.00 – €110.00 · the €138.90 price screens above the €88.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Hapag Lloyd AG (HLAG) currently trades at €138.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €88.00, implying the stock looks roughly 57.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of €131.93 per share, and 5 of the 26 models we run sit above the €138.90 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at €45.91, and 21 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Hapag Lloyd AG generated revenue of €17.8B at a net margin of 1.4%. Revenue declined 16.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.3%. Net debt stands at €3.2B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €66.00 (bear case) to €110.00 (bull case); at €138.90, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 42% fair-value upside, at −37%, HLAG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (€131.93) versus Earnings-Based (€45.91). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a liner shipping company in Germany, the United States, Asia, the rest of Europe, the Pacific, the Atlantic, Africa, and internationally. It operates through Liner Shipping; and Terminal & Infrastructure segments.
Full company description
Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a liner shipping company in Germany, the United States, Asia, the rest of Europe, the Pacific, the Atlantic, Africa, and internationally. It operates through Liner Shipping; and Terminal & Infrastructure segments. The company's vessel and container fleets are used for transporting dry and special cargo, dangerous goods, coffee, and reefer cargo. It also offers bilateral EDI, a directly connected electronic data interchange; application programming interface (API) portals for offers, contract specifications, commercial schedules, track and trace, live reefer, and live positions; WAVE BL service for the digital release of original bills of lading; mobile app and security information services; and INTTRA, Infor Nexus, and CargoSmart portals for the management of customers' supply chain data and connection to carriers through one interface. In addition, the company provides inland container transportation services through truck, rail, and barge; hinterland transport from door to door; and logistics services, as well as operates container terminals. As of December 31, 2025, its fleet consisted of 301 container vessels with a transport capacity of 2.4 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU). The company was formerly known as Hapag-Lloyd Holding AG and changed its name to Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft in August 2013. Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft was founded in 1847 and is headquartered in Hamburg, Germany.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Hapag Lloyd AG reported revenue of €18.6B in FY2025 versus €22.3B in FY2021, a compound −4.4%/yr. Reported net income was €910M in FY2025, compounding −43.7%/yr from FY2021.
HLAG screens 58% overvalued. Compare with Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Should Hapag-Lloyd’s Raised 2026 EBIT Outlook Despite Recent Losses Require Action From Hapag-Lloyd (XTRA:HLAG) Investors?
- Hapag Lloyd (XTRA:HLAG) Stock Could Be Pricey After Rotterdam Terminal Deal
- Hapag-Lloyd (XTRA:HLAG) Takes 25% Of Rotterdam Terminal In Long Term Port Bet
Peer Group
Marine Shipping · 233 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Marine Shipping median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Marine Shipping stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited ADANIPORTS | ₹1,714 | ₹1,041 | −39% |
| A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S MAERSKA | kr 20,820 | kr 20,145 | −3% |
| 532921 532921 | ₹1,697 | ₹1,305 | −23% |
| COSCO SHIPPING Holdings 601919 | ¥16.06 | ¥49.90 | +211% |
| Shanghai International Port (Group) Co 600018 | ¥5.17 | ¥6.15 | +19% |
| HMM Co 011200 | 21,450 KRW | 33,795 KRW | +58% |
| Orient Overseas (International) Limited 0316 | HK$166.90 | HK$237.61 | +42% |
| Ningbo Zhoushan Port Company 601018 | ¥3.39 | ¥5.58 | +65% |
| Qingdao Port International Co 601298 | ¥8.69 | ¥15.97 | +84% |
| JSW Infrastructure Limited JSWINFRA | ₹329.85 | ₹122.71 | −63% |
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