Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $6.5B · ISIN US4859241048
What is Karman Holdings Inc. really worth?
Karman Holdings Inc.
KRMN · US
Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Below-average quality, and trading another 1,373% above our fair value of $2.75.
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price −24.9% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($4.15). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range ($2.06 to $4.15) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (19 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
19‑month range $26.77 – $115.29 · fair‑value band $2.06 – $4.15 · the $40.52 price screens above the $2.75 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN) currently trades at $40.52, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.75, implying the stock looks roughly 1,372.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $6.39 per share, and 0 of the 17 models we run sit above the $40.52 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $1.11, and 17 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Karman Holdings Inc. generated revenue of $523M at a net margin of 5.7%. Revenue grew 51.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.9%. Net debt stands at $553M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $2.06 (bear case) to $4.15 (bull case); at $40.52, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 66% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −44% fair-value upside, at −93%, KRMN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.1563 per share, which is 5.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 17 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($6.39) versus Dividend Discount ($0.0200). Highest evidence: Residual Income (73).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 36 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 9
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Karman Holdings Inc., through its subsidiary, engages in designing, testing, manufacturing, and sale of mission-critical systems in the United States. The company offers payload protection and deployment systems, aerodynamic interstage systems, and propulsion systems.
Full company description
Karman Holdings Inc., through its subsidiary, engages in designing, testing, manufacturing, and sale of mission-critical systems in the United States. The company offers payload protection and deployment systems, aerodynamic interstage systems, and propulsion systems. It serves its products to hypersonics and strategic missile defense, tactical missile and integrated defense systems, and space and launch markets. The company was incorporated in 2020 and is headquartered in Huntington Beach, California. Karman Holdings Inc. operates as a subsidiary of TCFIII Spaceco SPV LP.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Karman Holdings Inc. reported revenue of $472M in FY2025 versus $226M in FY2022, a compound +27.7%/yr. Reported net income was $17.4M in FY2025.
KRMN screens 1,373% overvalued. Compare with General Electric Company →
Peer Group
Aerospace & Defense · 229 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| General Electric Company GE | $335.71 | $116.71 | −65% |
| RTX Corporation RTX | $212.08 | $88.37 | −58% |
| Airbus SE AIR | €213.00 | €117.01 | −45% |
| Lockheed Martin Corporation LMT | $565.89 | $419.01 | −26% |
| Howmet Aerospace Inc HWM | $264.85 | $50.43 | −81% |
| General Dynamics Corporation GD | $379.32 | $274.32 | −28% |
| Northrop Grumman Corporation NOC | $545.57 | $356.59 | −35% |
| TransDigm Group TDG | $1,235 | $571.03 | −54% |
| L3Harris Technologies, Inc LHX | $262.82 | $146.55 | −44% |
| Thales S.A HO | €243.70 | €171.13 | −30% |
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