Jasa Marga Tbk (JSMR) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · ID · Market cap 19.5T IDR (≈ $1.9B) · ISIN ID1000108103

What is Jasa Marga Tbk really worth?

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

• The price is below even our cautious bear case (4,331 IDR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
• The model range is unusually wide (4,331 IDR to 13,236 IDR). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
• The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
• Solid quality (49/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 2,518 IDR – 5,142 IDR · fair‑value band 4,331 IDR – 13,236 IDR · the 2,990 IDR price screens below the 7,830 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Jasa Marga Tbk (JSMR) currently trades at 2,990 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 7,830 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 61.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 10,589 IDR per share, and 22 of the 25 models we run sit above the 2,990 IDR price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 2,688 IDR, and 3 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Jasa Marga Tbk generated revenue of 29.3T IDR at a net margin of 12.0%. Revenue declined 8.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.7%. Net debt stands at 68.0T IDR. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 4,331 IDR (bear case) to 13,236 IDR (bull case); at 2,990 IDR, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at 162%, JSMR screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly 222.05 IDR per share, which is 2.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Widest divergence: Multiples (10,589 IDR) versus Dividend Discount (2,688 IDR). Highest evidence: Residual Income (74).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

PT Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk develops, constructs, operates, manages, and maintains toll roads in Indonesia. It offers road construction and maintenance services.

Full company description

PT Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk develops, constructs, operates, manages, and maintains toll roads in Indonesia. It offers road construction and maintenance services. The company also rents toll road equipment and vehicles; holds toll road concessions; develops and constructs real estate properties, including residential, office building, and apartment; and manages rest areas. PT Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Jasa Marga Tbk reported revenue of 29.9T IDR in FY2025 versus 15.2T IDR in FY2021, a compound +18.5%/yr. Reported net income was 3.7T IDR in FY2025, compounding +43.2%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.

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Peer Group

Infrastructure Operations · 64 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Infrastructure Operations median · lower = cheaper

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

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