China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings (001965) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 67.3B CNY
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from ¥9.16 to ¥10.25 (+11.9%) since Jul 17, 2026. Share price −5.9% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 11% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide (¥4.24 to ¥13.33). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Our model range runs from ¥4.24 (bear) to ¥13.33 (bull), base ¥10.25. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 59/100 (solid quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥5.65 – ¥13.45 · fair‑value band ¥4.24 – ¥13.33 · the ¥9.20 price screens below the ¥10.25 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings (001965) currently trades at ¥9.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥10.25, implying the stock looks roughly 11.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings generated revenue of 14.1B CNY at a net margin of 32.8%. Revenue grew 26.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.6%. Net debt stands at 39.3B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥4.24 (bear case) to ¥13.33 (bull case); at ¥9.20, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 9% fair-value upside, at 11%, 001965 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥15.42) versus Growth DCF (¥2.30). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings Co.,Ltd. operates as a highway investment and operation service provider in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Investment Operation, Transportation Technology, Smart Transportation, and Traffic Ecology segments.
Full company description
China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings Co.,Ltd. operates as a highway investment and operation service provider in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Investment Operation, Transportation Technology, Smart Transportation, and Traffic Ecology segments. The company also offers full-process consulting and engineering technical services; and general contracting of engineering, design and construction, and project management services. In addition, it engages in technical service development; traffic information services; intelligent transportation product design; technology research and development; software development and computer network system engineering; technology transfer; business management; engineering consulting management; fund management; photovoltaic power generation; agricultural planting; highway engineering; scientific research and design; engineering supervision; production and installation; development and management of construction facilities; hotels; pipeline corridor leasing; ecological and environmental protection technology-related activities; highway engineering inspection; highway information technology development; water transport project supervision; and other technology promotion services. The company was formerly known as China Merchants Huajian Highway Investment Co.,Ltd. and changed its name to China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings Co.,Ltd. in September 2016. The company was founded in 1993 and is based in Beijing, the People's Republic of China. China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings Co.,Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of China Merchants Group Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings reported revenue of ¥13.4B in FY2025 versus ¥8.6B in FY2021, a compound +11.6%/yr. Reported net income was ¥4.6B in FY2025, compounding −1.9%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +17.6 pp · buybacks/dilution −6.5 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Infrastructure Operations · 69 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Infrastructure Operations median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Infrastructure Operations stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jiangsu Expressway Company 600377 | ¥12.01 | ¥14.47 | +20% |
| Shandong Hi-speed Company 600350 | ¥10.87 | ¥8.68 | -20% |
| Impulsora del Desarrollo y el Empleo en América Latina, S.A. IDEALB1 | 43.00 MXN | 33.24 MXN | -23% |
| Promotora y Operadora de Infraestructura, S. A. B. de C. V. PINFRA | 281.25 MXN | 945.00 MXN | +236% |
| Motiva Infraestrutura de Mobilidade S.A MOTV3 | R$14.03 | R$29.97 | +114% |
| Zhejiang Expressway Co 0576 | HK$6.26 | HK$18.50 | +196% |
| Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co 000429 | ¥13.16 | ¥13.79 | +5% |
| Anhui Expressway Company 600012 | ¥16.50 | ¥14.90 | -10% |
| Shenzhen Expressway Corporation 600548 | ¥8.37 | ¥9.16 | +9% |
| IRB Infrastructure Developers Limited IRB | ₹19.33 | ₹14.79 | -23% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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