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Zhejiang Expressway Co (0576) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$35.8B

ZE Zhejiang Expressway Co 0576 · HK
PriceHK$6.23
Fair ValueHK$18.50
Upside+197.2%
Quality36/100
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Mixed Growth
Highly profitable · 24.9% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
6.38% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (9/14)
Wide moat 68/100
Evidence: Medium Range HK$13.22 – HK$23.77 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$18.35 to HK$18.50 (+0.8%) since Jul 7, 2026. Share price −2.1% over the past month.

Below-average quality, screening 197% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (36/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$13.22). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$7.61 HK$3.46 Fair Value HK$18.50 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$3.46 – HK$7.61 · fair‑value band HK$13.22 – HK$23.77 · the HK$6.23 price screens below the HK$18.50 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Zhejiang Expressway Co (0576) currently trades at HK$6.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$18.50, implying the stock looks roughly 197.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Zhejiang Expressway Co generated revenue of HK$20.7B at a net margin of 24.9%. Revenue grew 21.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.3%. Net debt stands at HK$15.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$13.22 (bear case) to HK$23.77 (bull case); at HK$6.23, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 9% fair-value upside, at 197%, 0576 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$15.05 HK$18.26 HK$23.42 80
Residual Income HK$7.45 HK$8.31 HK$13.23 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$14.29 HK$17.00 HK$20.28 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$15.01 HK$18.33 HK$23.69 38
Owner Earnings HK$24.90 HK$34.78 HK$50.76 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$14.29 HK$17.01 HK$20.56 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$21.80 HK$31.69 HK$43.75 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$19.85 HK$27.88 HK$36.72 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$14.37 HK$16.97 HK$20.65 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$19.37 HK$27.40 HK$39.08 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$18.11 HK$24.70 HK$33.49 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$5.87 HK$22.20 HK$30.05 54
Lynch FV HK$5.38 HK$7.68 HK$9.99 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$5.38 HK$7.68 HK$9.99 46
EPV HK$17.21 HK$18.40 HK$19.45 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$3.52 HK$7.32 HK$11.61 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$3.52 HK$6.17 HK$7.68 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$13.60 HK$18.13 HK$22.66 63
P/S Multiple HK$4.80 HK$6.41 HK$8.01 58
P/B Multiple HK$11.01 HK$14.68 HK$18.34 55
EV/EBIT HK$23.62 HK$28.16 HK$32.69 53
EV/EBITDA HK$26.86 HK$32.47 HK$38.08 54
EV/Revenue HK$14.05 HK$15.78 HK$17.51 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$4.19 HK$5.62 HK$8.39 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$15.05 HK$18.26 HK$23.42 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$14.29 HK$17.00 HK$20.28 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$7.45 HK$8.31 HK$13.23 76
ROIC Compounder HK$17.21 HK$18.40 HK$19.45 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$9.85 HK$14.07 HK$18.30 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$24.70) versus Asset-Based (HK$5.62). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$20.7B
Revenue growth (YoY) +21.9%
Net margin 24.9%
Return on equity 9.3%
Free cash flow HK$2.5B FY2025
P/E ratio 5.8 as of Jul 2, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 38.1%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.6562
Dividend yield 6.4%
EPS growth (YoY) -11.5%
Net debt HK$15.6B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 36/100

Of which business quality 35 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45

Profitability 35
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 24
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 50
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 28
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 29
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 91
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 28
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 19
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 39
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Zhejiang Expressway Co., Ltd., an investment holding company, invests, develops, maintains, and operates roads in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Toll Operation, Securities Operation, and Others segments. The Toll Operation segment operates and manages high grade roads; and collects expressway tolls.

Full company description

Zhejiang Expressway Co., Ltd., an investment holding company, invests, develops, maintains, and operates roads in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Toll Operation, Securities Operation, and Others segments. The Toll Operation segment operates and manages high grade roads; and collects expressway tolls. The Securities Operation segment offers securities and future broking, margin financing and securities lending, securities underwriting and sponsorship, asset management, advisory, and proprietary trading services. The Others segment engages in hotel operation, high grade road construction, investment in other financial institutions, and other ancillary activities. It provides vehicle towing, repair and emergency, and rescue services, as well as investment management, advisory services, private equity investments and; and technology services. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, the People's Republic of China. Zhejiang Expressway Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of Zhejiang Communications Investment Group Co., Ltd.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Zhejiang Expressway Co reported revenue of HK$19.2B in FY2025 versus HK$16.3B in FY2021, a compound +4.3%/yr. Reported net income was HK$5.2B in FY2025, compounding +2.2%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 75/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$19.2B
Latest YoY
+6.5%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.9%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.1%
Avg. growth/yr (28Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+15.1%
Revenue +4.3%/yr
FY21 HK$16.3B
FY22 HK$15.3B
FY23 HK$17.0B
FY24 HK$18.1B
FY25 HK$19.2B
Net income +2.2%/yr
FY21 HK$4.8B
FY22 HK$5.2B
FY23 HK$5.2B
FY24 HK$5.5B
FY25 HK$5.2B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +4.3 % p.a.
Revenue per share +3.3 pp

of which total revenue +6.3 pp · buybacks/dilution −3.0 pp

EBIT margin −2.2 pp
Tax rate +0.9 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +2.3 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Zhejiang Expressway Co · Fair Value
HK$18.50 +197%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Zhejiang Expressway Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0576

Peer Group

Infrastructure Operations · 69 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 36 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +197% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 9% · Above median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 25% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 38% · Above median
Revenue growth 22% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 6.4% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.72× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Infrastructure Operations median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 5.8× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.71× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 1.73× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 1.8× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.97× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 46
FUTURE 100 · sector 11
PAST 37 · sector 26
HEALTH 64 · sector 69
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 79

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Infrastructure Operations stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings 001965 ¥9.36 ¥10.25 +10%
Jiangsu Expressway Company 600377 ¥12.01 ¥14.47 +20%
Shandong Hi-speed Company 600350 ¥10.87 ¥8.68 -20%
Impulsora del Desarrollo y el Empleo en América Latina, S.A. IDEALB1 43.00 MXN 33.24 MXN -23%
Promotora y Operadora de Infraestructura, S. A. B. de C. V. PINFRA 281.25 MXN 945.00 MXN +236%
Motiva Infraestrutura de Mobilidade S.A MOTV3 R$14.03 R$29.97 +114%
Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co 000429 ¥13.16 ¥13.79 +5%
Anhui Expressway Company 600012 ¥16.50 ¥14.90 -10%
Shenzhen Expressway Corporation 600548 ¥8.37 ¥9.16 +9%
IRB Infrastructure Developers Limited IRB ₹19.33 ₹14.79 -23%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Zhejiang Expressway Co (0576) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$18.50 versus a price of HK$6.23, about +197% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0576?
Our model-based fair value for Zhejiang Expressway Co is HK$18.50 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$6.23.
What is the quality score of 0576?
Zhejiang Expressway Co has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Zhejiang Expressway Co (0576)?
Zhejiang Expressway Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$20.7B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 0576?
The net profit margin of Zhejiang Expressway Co is about 24.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 24.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Zhejiang Expressway Co pay a dividend?
Zhejiang Expressway Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.38% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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