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Zhejiang Expressway Co Ltd (0576) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$35.8B (≈ $4.6B) · ISIN CNE1000004S4

What is Zhejiang Expressway Co Ltd really worth?

ZE Zhejiang Expressway Co Ltd 0576 · HK
PriceHK$6.15
Fair ValueHK$18.50
Upside+200.8%
Quality36/100

Below-average quality, trading 67% below our fair value of HK$18.50.

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Strengths

✓Highly profitable · 24.9% net margin
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓Wide moat 68/100

Risks

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +9.1 %/yr)
!Mixed vs. peers (7/13)
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

For context

·7.28% dividend yield
Evidence: Low Range HK$13.23 – HK$23.78

Fair value as of: Aug 19, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 16 days ago

Share price −3.3% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (36/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$13.23). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$7.61 HK$3.46 Fair Value HK$18.50 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$3.46 – HK$7.61 · fair‑value band HK$13.23 – HK$23.78 · the HK$6.15 price screens below the HK$18.50 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Zhejiang Expressway Co Ltd (0576) currently trades at HK$6.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$18.50, implying the stock looks roughly 66.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$24.70 per share, and 25 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$6.15 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$5.62, and 1 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Zhejiang Expressway Co Ltd generated revenue of HK$20.7B at a net margin of 24.9%. Revenue grew 21.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.3%. Net debt stands at HK$15.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 19, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$13.23 (bear case) to HK$23.78 (bull case); at HK$6.15, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at 201%, 0576 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$0.1412 per share, which is 0.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence HK$15.01 HK$18.33 HK$23.69 82
Growth DCF HK$15.05 HK$18.26 HK$23.42 80
Owner Earnings HK$24.90 HK$34.78 HK$50.76 76
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence HK$15.01 HK$18.33 HK$23.69 82
Owner Earnings HK$24.90 HK$34.78 HK$50.76 76
5Y Revenue Exit HK$14.29 HK$17.01 HK$20.56 74
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$21.80 HK$31.69 HK$43.75 75
5Y P/E Exit HK$19.85 HK$27.88 HK$36.72 71
10Y Revenue Exit HK$14.37 HK$16.97 HK$20.65 68
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$19.37 HK$27.40 HK$39.08 68
10Y P/E Exit HK$18.11 HK$24.70 HK$33.49 64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$5.87 HK$22.20 HK$30.05 64
Lynch FV HK$5.38 HK$7.68 HK$9.99 61
PEG = 1.0 HK$5.38 HK$7.68 HK$9.99 57
EPV HK$17.21 HK$18.40 HK$19.45 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$3.52 HK$7.32 HK$11.61 66
DDM Multi-Stage HK$3.52 HK$6.17 HK$7.68 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$13.60 HK$18.13 HK$22.66 63
P/S Multiple HK$4.80 HK$6.41 HK$8.01 58
P/B Multiple HK$11.01 HK$14.68 HK$18.34 55
EV/EBIT HK$23.62 HK$28.16 HK$32.69 66
EV/EBITDA HK$26.86 HK$32.47 HK$38.08 67
EV/Revenue HK$14.05 HK$15.78 HK$17.51 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$4.19 HK$5.62 HK$8.39 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$15.05 HK$18.26 HK$23.42 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$14.29 HK$17.00 HK$20.28 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$7.45 HK$8.31 HK$13.23 75
ROIC Compounder HK$17.21 HK$18.40 HK$19.45 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$9.85 HK$14.07 HK$18.30 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$24.70) versus Asset-Based (HK$5.62). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (82).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 5.8 as of Jul 2, 2026
P/S ratio 1.57 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) HK$0.6562 price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.8
Dividend yield 7.3% payout 68.2%
Net margin 27.0% FY2025
Return on equity 9.3% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 3.1% avg 5y
Operating margin 38.1% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$20.7B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +21.9% 3y avg +7.9%
EPS growth (YoY) −11.5%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$2.5B FY2025
Net debt HK$15.6B FY2025 · ≈ 6.3 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 36/100

Of which business quality 35 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46

Profitability 35
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 24
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 50
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 28
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 29
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 92
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 32
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 19
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 39
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Zhejiang Expressway Co., Ltd., an investment holding company, invests, develops, maintains, and operates roads in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Toll Operation, Securities Operation, and Others segments. The Toll Operation segment operates and manages high grade roads; and collects expressway tolls.

Full company description

Zhejiang Expressway Co., Ltd., an investment holding company, invests, develops, maintains, and operates roads in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Toll Operation, Securities Operation, and Others segments. The Toll Operation segment operates and manages high grade roads; and collects expressway tolls. The Securities Operation segment offers securities and future broking, margin financing and securities lending, securities underwriting and sponsorship, asset management, advisory, and proprietary trading services. The Others segment engages in hotel operation, high grade road construction, investment in other financial institutions, and other ancillary activities. It provides vehicle towing, repair and emergency, and rescue services, as well as investment management, advisory services, private equity investments and; and technology services. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, the People's Republic of China. Zhejiang Expressway Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of Zhejiang Communications Investment Group Co., Ltd.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Zhejiang Expressway Co Ltd reported revenue of 19.2B CNY in FY2025 versus 16.3B CNY in FY2021, a compound +4.3%/yr. Reported net income was 5.2B CNY in FY2025, compounding +2.2%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 75/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$19.2B
Latest YoY
+6.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (28Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+15.1%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+7.5% (0.2 + 7.3)
Revenue +4.3%/yr
FY21 16.3B CNY
FY22 15.3B CNY
FY23 17.0B CNY
FY24 18.1B CNY
FY25 19.2B CNY
Net income +2.2%/yr
FY21 4.8B CNY
FY22 5.2B CNY
FY23 5.2B CNY
FY24 5.5B CNY
FY25 5.2B CNY
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +4.3 % p.a.
Revenue per share +3.3 %

of which total revenue +6.3 % · buybacks/dilution −2.9 %

EBIT margin −2.2 %
Tax rate +0.9 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +2.3 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Zhejiang Expressway Co Ltd · Fair Value
HK$18.50 +67%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Zhejiang Expressway Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0576

Peer Group

Infrastructure Operations · 64 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 36 · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 9% · Above median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 25% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 38% · Above median
Revenue growth 22% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 7.3% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.72× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Infrastructure Operations median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 5.8× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.71× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 1.73× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 1.8× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.97× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 56
FUTURE100 · sector 10
PAST37 · sector 25
HEALTH64 · sector 69
DIVIDEND100 · sector 79

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Infrastructure Operations stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 19, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings 001965 ¥9.36 ¥10.25 +10%
Jiangsu Expressway Company 600377 ¥12.01 ¥14.47 +20%
Shandong Hi-speed Company 600350 ¥10.90 ¥8.68 −20%
Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co 000429 ¥13.04 ¥13.79 +6%
Anhui Expressway Company 600012 ¥16.15 ¥14.90 −8%
Shenzhen Expressway Corporation 600548 ¥8.37 ¥9.16 +9%
IRB Infrastructure Developers Limited IRB ₹18.95 ₹14.79 −22%
Sichuan Expressway Company 601107 ¥5.53 ¥5.73 +4%
CUBEINVIT CUBEINVIT ₹159.18 ₹33.83 −79%
PT Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk JSMR 2,740 IDR 7,830 IDR +186%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Zhejiang Expressway Co Ltd (0576) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 19, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$18.50 versus a price of HK$6.15, about +201% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0576?
Our model-based fair value for Zhejiang Expressway Co Ltd is HK$18.50 (as of Aug 19, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$6.15.
What is the quality score of 0576?
Zhejiang Expressway Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Zhejiang Expressway Co Ltd (0576)?
Zhejiang Expressway Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$20.7B (latest available figure, as of Aug 19, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 0576?
The net profit margin of Zhejiang Expressway Co Ltd is about 24.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 24.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Zhejiang Expressway Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Zhejiang Expressway Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.28% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 19, 2026).
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