Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd (000429) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 27.8B CNY (≈ $4.1B) · ISIN CNE0000006Z6
What is Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd really worth?
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value of ¥13.79.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 22, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 14 days ago
Share price −4.3% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide (¥7.28 to ¥22.50). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥5.08 – ¥14.62 · fair‑value band ¥7.28 – ¥22.50 · the ¥13.04 price screens below the ¥13.79 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.
Analysis
Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd (000429) currently trades at ¥13.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥13.79, implying the stock looks roughly 5.4% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ¥14.62 per share, and 10 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥13.04 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥3.56, and 16 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd generated revenue of 4.5B CNY at a net margin of 35.5%. Revenue grew 2.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.6%. Net debt stands at 3.8B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 22, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥7.28 (bear case) to ¥22.50 (bull case); at ¥13.04, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 9% fair-value upside, at 6%, 000429 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly ¥0.1128 per share, which is 0.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (¥14.62) versus Asset-Based (¥3.56). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co., Ltd., invests, constructs, charges, manages, and maintains expressways, toll highways and bridges in the People's Republic of China.
Full company description
Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co., Ltd., invests, constructs, charges, manages, and maintains expressways, toll highways and bridges in the People's Republic of China. The company is also involved in the maintenance, cleaning, and service of automobile rescue; parking lot charges; design, production, release, and agency of advertisements at home and abroad; land development; warehousing activities; research and development, and service of transportation technology; and equity investment, management, and consultation services. The company was formerly known as Guangdong FuKai Expressway Co., Ltd and changed its name to Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co., Ltd. in June 1993. Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co., Ltd. was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd reported revenue of 4.5B CNY in FY2025 versus 5.3B CNY in FY2021, a compound −4.1%/yr. Reported net income was 1.8B CNY in FY2025, compounding +1.4%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +8.0 % · buybacks/dilution −2.6 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Infrastructure Operations · 64 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Infrastructure Operations median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 35/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Infrastructure Operations stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 22, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings 001965 | ¥9.36 | ¥10.25 | +10% |
| Jiangsu Expressway Company 600377 | ¥12.01 | ¥14.47 | +20% |
| Shandong Hi-speed Company 600350 | ¥10.90 | ¥8.68 | −20% |
| Zhejiang Expressway Co 0576 | HK$6.31 | HK$18.50 | +193% |
| Anhui Expressway Company 600012 | ¥16.15 | ¥14.90 | −8% |
| Shenzhen Expressway Corporation 600548 | ¥8.37 | ¥9.16 | +9% |
| IRB Infrastructure Developers Limited IRB | ₹18.95 | ₹14.79 | −22% |
| Sichuan Expressway Company 601107 | ¥5.53 | ¥5.73 | +4% |
| CUBEINVIT CUBEINVIT | ₹159.18 | ₹33.83 | −79% |
| PT Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk JSMR | 2,740 IDR | 7,830 IDR | +186% |
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