Hexcel Corporation (HXL) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $7.5B · ISIN US4282911084
What is Hexcel Corporation really worth?
Hexcel Corporation
HXL · US
A solid business, but trading 249% above our fair value of $26.45.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 21, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 15 days ago
Share price −11.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($36.12). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($18.49 to $36.12) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 21, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $46.00 – $110.28 · fair‑value band $18.49 – $36.12 · the $92.43 price screens above the $26.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 21, 2026.
Analysis
Hexcel Corporation (HXL) currently trades at $92.43, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $26.45, implying the stock looks roughly 249.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $31.58 per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the $92.43 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $8.15, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Hexcel Corporation generated revenue of $1.9B at a net margin of 6.1%. Revenue grew 9.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.4%. Net debt stands at $922M. Fundamentals as of Aug 21, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $18.49 (bear case) to $36.12 (bull case); at $92.43, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 73% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −44% fair-value upside, at −71%, HXL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.5549 per share, which is 2.1 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($31.58) versus Earnings-Based ($8.15). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Hexcel Corporation develops, manufactures, and markets advanced lightweight composites technology. It operates through two segments, Composite Materials and Engineered Products.
Full company description
Hexcel Corporation develops, manufactures, and markets advanced lightweight composites technology. It operates through two segments, Composite Materials and Engineered Products. The company offers carbon fiber, reinforcements, prepregs and other fiber-reinforced matrix materials, honeycomb, resins, engineered core and composite structures for use in commercial aerospace, defense and space, and industrial applications. The Composite Materials segment manufactures and markets carbon fibers, fabrics, multi-axials, specialty reinforcements, prepregs and other fiber-reinforced matrix materials, structural adhesives, honeycomb, molding compounds, tooling materials, polyurethane systems, and laminates that are used in military aircraft, transportation, recreational products, and other industrial applications. The Engineered Products segment manufactures and markets aircraft structures and finished aircraft components, including wing to body fairings, wing panels, flight deck panels, door liners, rotorcraft blades, spars, and tip caps; and aircraft structural sub-components and semi-finished components used in rotorcraft blades, engine nacelles, and aircraft surfaces, such as flaps, wings, elevators, and fairings; and RF interference control products for military and aerospace applications. This segment also provides interference control materials, structural composites, and services; dielectric absorber foams; magnetic absorbers; and thermoplastics for commercial and defense applications. The company sells its products directly through its marketing managers, product managers, and sales personnel, as well as through independent distributors in the Americas, Europe, the Asia Pacific, India, and Africa. Hexcel Corporation was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Hexcel Corporation reported revenue of $1.9B in FY2025 versus $1.3B in FY2021, a compound +9.3%/yr. Reported net income was $109M in FY2025, compounding +61.5%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
of which total revenue −0.3 % · buybacks/dilution +1.7 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
HXL screens 249% overvalued. Compare with General Electric Company →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Why Is Hexcel (HXL) Down 8% Since Last Earnings Report?
- Can Long-Term Agreements Strengthen Hexcel's Growth Prospects?
- Hexcel to Participate in Jefferies Industrial Conference
Peer Group
Aerospace & Defense · 229 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 21, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| General Electric Company GE | $335.71 | $116.71 | −65% |
| RTX Corporation RTX | $212.08 | $88.37 | −58% |
| Airbus SE AIR | €213.00 | €117.01 | −45% |
| Lockheed Martin Corporation LMT | $565.89 | $419.01 | −26% |
| Howmet Aerospace Inc HWM | $264.85 | $50.43 | −81% |
| General Dynamics Corporation GD | $379.32 | $274.32 | −28% |
| Northrop Grumman Corporation NOC | $545.57 | $356.59 | −35% |
| TransDigm Group TDG | $1,235 | $571.03 | −54% |
| L3Harris Technologies, Inc LHX | $262.82 | $146.55 | −44% |
| Thales S.A HO | €243.70 | €171.13 | −30% |
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