The Home Depot Inc (HD) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $342B · ISIN US4370761029
What is The Home Depot Inc really worth?
The Home Depot Inc
HD · US
A solid business, but trading 34% above our fair value of $236.85.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 7 days ago
Share price −8.7% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($128.99 to $312.10) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $242.07 – $414.97 · fair‑value band $128.99 – $312.10 · the $318.07 price screens above the $236.85 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
Analysis
The Home Depot Inc (HD) currently trades at $318.07, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $236.85, implying the stock looks roughly 34.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $285.44 per share, and 2 of the 26 models we run sit above the $318.07 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $72.51, and 24 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, The Home Depot Inc generated revenue of $167B at a net margin of 8.4%. Revenue grew 4.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 128.4%. Net debt stands at $64.0B. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $128.99 (bear case) to $312.10 (bull case); at $318.07, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at −26%, HD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2026 figures, and about 7 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $4.25 per share, which is 1.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($285.44) versus Asset-Based ($8.61). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
The Home Depot, Inc. operates as a home improvement retailer in the United States and internationally. It sells various building materials, home improvement products, lawn and garden products, and décor products, as well as facilities maintenance, repair, and operations products.
Full company description
The Home Depot, Inc. operates as a home improvement retailer in the United States and internationally. It sells various building materials, home improvement products, lawn and garden products, and décor products, as well as facilities maintenance, repair, and operations products. The company also offers installation services for flooring, water heaters, baths, garage doors, cabinets, cabinet makeovers, countertops, sheds, furnaces and central air systems, windows, and window coverings. In addition, it provides tool and equipment rental services. The company serves consumers, such as do-it-yourself homeowners and do-it-for-me customers; and professional renovators/remodelers, general contractors, homebuilders, maintenance professionals, handymen, property managers, building service contractors and specialty tradespeople, such as electricians, landscapers, insulation installers, plumbers, painters, pool contractors, roofers, and wallboard and ceiling installers. It sells its products through websites and its mobile applications, including homedepot.com; homedepot.ca and homedepot.com.mx; blinds.com, justblinds.com, and americanblinds.com for custom window coverings; constructionresourcesusa.com or design-oriented surfaces, appliances, and architectural specialty products; thecompanystore.com, an online site for textiles and décor products; hdsupply.com for maintenance, repair, and operations products and related services; and srsdistribution.com, heritagelandscapesupplygroup.com, heritagepoolsupplygroup.com, and gms.com for roofing and building materials, landscape, and pool products; and The Home Depot stores. The Home Depot, Inc. was incorporated in 1978 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
The Home Depot Inc reported revenue of $165B in FY2026 versus $151B in FY2022, a compound +2.2%/yr. Reported net income was $14.2B in FY2026, compounding −3.7%/yr from FY2022.
of which total revenue +6.7 % · buybacks/dilution +2.9 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
HD screens 34% overvalued. Compare with Lowe's Companies, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- 107-year-old Home Depot rival closing 25% of its stores
- Americans Stop Moving as Mortgage Lock-In Persists: Home Depot Sees 'No Sign' of Housing Turnaround
- Home Depot Bear Put Spread Could Return 181% in 45 Days
- Home Depot (HD) Could Be 15% Undervalued On Its Pro Growth Narrative
Peer Group
Home Improvement Retail · 34 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Home Improvement Retail median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Home Improvement Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 29, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lowe's Companies, Inc LOW | $208.05 | $186.32 | −10% |
| Wesfarmers Limited WES | A$77.73 | A$50.50 | −35% |
| Floor & Decor Holdings FND | $59.33 | $27.30 | −54% |
| Mr D.I.Y. Group 5296 | 1.51 MYR | 1.47 MYR | −3% |
| Home Product Center Public Company HMPROR | 6.70 THB | 6.31 THB | −6% |
| Siam Global House Public Company GLOBAL | 6.65 THB | 5.96 THB | −10% |
| Haverty Furniture Companies, Inc HVT | $27.26 | $20.42 | −25% |
| Dohome Public Company DOHOME | 3.78 THB | 2.75 THB | −27% |
| Test-Rite International Co 2908 | 21.80 TWD | 4.97 TWD | −77% |
| Bourrelier Group ALBOU | €69.40 | €36.15 | −48% |
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