Hensoldt AG (HAG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Hensoldt AG is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
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Industrials · DE · Market cap €9.0B · ISIN DE000HAG0005
At a glance
HAHensoldt AGHAG · XETRA
Price€77.50
Fair Value€16.89
Upside−78.2%
Quality39/100
Below-average quality, and trading another 359% above our fair value of €16.89.
As of Sep 7, 2026, the fair value of Hensoldt AG is €16.89 per share against a price of €77.50, so the fair value sits 78% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +15.3 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 3.9% net margin
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
·0.71% dividend yield
!Trails peers (3/15)
!Narrow moat 35/100
!Weak on dividend: 14 out of 100
Evidence: HighRange €12.14 to €23.78
Fair value as of: Sep 7, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Share price −14.4% over the past month.
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€23.78). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
A fairly wide model range (€12.14 to €23.78) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €11.36 – €113.10 · fair‑value band €12.14 – €23.78 · the €77.50 price screens above the €16.89 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 7, 2026.
Hensoldt AG (HAG) currently trades at €77.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €16.89, implying the stock looks roughly 358.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €30.42 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the €77.50 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €5.75, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Hensoldt AG generated revenue of €2.6B at a net margin of 3.9%. Revenue grew 25.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.3%. Net debt stands at €701M. Fundamentals as of Sep 7, 2026
Scenario range: €12.14 (bear) to €23.78 (bull), the price of €77.50 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −40% fair-value upside, at −78%, HAG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.2218 per share) are deliberately not added.
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely (€5.75 to €49.94). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
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Key figures & financial health
P/E ratio72.4
P/S ratio2.63P/E × margin
EPS (TTM)€1.07price ÷ EPS = P/E 72.4
Dividend yield0.7%payout 51.4%
Net margin3.6%FY2025
Return on equity10.3%TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT)4.3%avg 5y
Operating margin−0.8%TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM)€2.6BTTM
Revenue growth (YoY)+25.6%3y avg +12.9%
EPS growth (YoY)−22.0%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow€247MFY2025
Net debt€701MFY2025 · ≈ 2.8 yrs of FCF
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 7, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality39/100
Of which business quality 43
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41
Profitability27
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth41
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow62
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength35
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment25
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility59
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum43
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum20
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance67
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Hensoldt AG, together with its subsidiaries, provides sensor solutions for defense and security applications worldwide. It operates through Sensors and Optronics segments.
Full company description
Hensoldt AG, together with its subsidiaries, provides sensor solutions for defense and security applications worldwide. It operates through Sensors and Optronics segments. It offers mobile and stationary radar, and identification friend or foe systems used for surveillance, reconnaissance, civil air traffic control, and air defense; systems for secure data connections for air, sea and land platforms; electronic systems for the acquisition and evaluation of radar and radio signals and jammers; defensive cyber solutions; and situational awareness systems, mission computers, and flight data recorders. The company also provides electronic self-protection systems that integrate missile, laser and radar warning sensors; customer support and service activities; simulation solutions, training courses and special services, and components and solutions for space-based sensors; and solutions and services for secure digitalization and networking in military and civil dimensions. In addition, it offers telescopic sights, visors, laser rangefinders, night vision devices and thermal imaging cameras; devices for surveillance and target acquisition for armored vehicles; submarine periscopes, optronic mast systems, and other electro-optical systems for use at sea; and mobile and stationary surveillance solutions; and special equipment for industrial and space applications. Further, the company provides friend-or-foe detection systems, radar for ship and land applications, cryptographic devices, and tactical point-to-point communication systems; delivery, installation and maintenance of air traffic control radar, weather radar, navigation, voice communications, and runway lighting systems for military and civil airports; and software solutions for military and non-military use. Hensoldt AG was incorporated in 2020 and is headquartered in Taufkirchen, Germany.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Hensoldt AG reported revenue of €2.5B in FY2025 versus €1.5B in FY2021, a compound +13.6%/yr. Reported net income was €89.0M in FY2025, compounding +9.0%/yr from FY2021.
Growth Quality 90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€2.5B
Latest YoY
+9.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+12.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+15.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (7Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+12.0%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+18.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+17.8%
Dividend yield0.7%
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5.2% (2020) → 8.3% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop327% (2020) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in EUR
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How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation
Quality Score39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−79% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10% · Above median
Return on assets3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth26% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.17× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiples vs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)72.4× · Priciest 25%
P/B10.06× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)3.90× · Pricier than median
P/FCF40.4× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA30.5× · Pricier than median
PEG1.31× · Cheaper than median
What the price implies (reverse DCF)
The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Hensoldt AG deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.
Implied FCF growth, 10 years+11.9 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+15.3 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+4.6 %
FCF yield on price2.76 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models7.9 %
The price demands less growth than the company recently delivered: even a weaker business would justify the price. Ranking of the largest stocks →
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE0· sector 0
FUTURE100· sector 47
PAST41· sector 36
HEALTH41· sector 93
DIVIDEND14· sector 16
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
WeaponsDefense
Similar stocks
10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 7, 2026).
As of Sep 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €16.89 versus a price of €77.50, about −78% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HAG?
Our model-based fair value for Hensoldt AG is €16.89 (as of Sep 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €77.50.
What is the quality score of HAG?
Hensoldt AG has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hensoldt AG (HAG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €16.89 (as of Sep 7, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario €12.14, optimistic scenario €23.78. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hensoldt AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €16.89, about −78% upside versus a price of €77.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €12.14, optimistic scenario €23.78. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hensoldt AG (HAG)?
Hensoldt AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €2.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 7, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of HAG?
The net profit margin of Hensoldt AG is about 3.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 3.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Hensoldt AG pay a dividend?
Hensoldt AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.71% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 7, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hensoldt AG (HAG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hensoldt AG would have to grow free cash flow by +11.9 % per year for ten years (discount rate 7.9 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.3 % per year. As of Sep 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HAG use?
Our models discount Hensoldt AG at 7.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.39, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is the intrinsic value of Hensoldt AG (HAG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hensoldt AG it is €16.89 per share (as of Sep 7, 2026), against a price of €77.50. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hensoldt AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 7, 2026, HAG trades above its calculated fair value: price €77.50, fair value €16.89, a gap of about −78% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HAG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€77.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€16.89). For Hensoldt AG the two are €60.61 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hensoldt AG worth?
The market values Hensoldt AG at about €9.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 7, 2026). Per share that is €77.50; our models calculate a fair value of €16.89 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HAG?
Our models span a range for Hensoldt AG: cautious scenario €12.14, base €16.89, optimistic €23.78 per share (as of Sep 7, 2026, price €77.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HAG?
Hensoldt AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 72.4 (as of Sep 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €16.89 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.3, P/B 10.1, P/S 3.9, EV/EBITDA 30.5.
What is the PEG ratio of HAG?
The PEG ratio of Hensoldt AG is 1.31 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 7, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hensoldt AG (HAG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hensoldt AG (as of Sep 7, 2026): return on equity 10.3%, debt of 1.17 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HAG from its 52-week high?
Hensoldt AG trades at €77.50, about 34% below its 52-week high of €116.97 and 20% above the low of €64.40 (as of Sep 7, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €16.89 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hensoldt AG?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Lockheed Martin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hensoldt AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 7, 2026: price €77.50, calculated fair value €16.89 (−78%), Quality Score 39/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HAG calculated?
We run Hensoldt AG through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €16.89, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 32.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Hensoldt AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on <a href="/is-it-worth-investing-now/">is it worth investing now</a>.
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