Hensoldt AG (HAG) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · DE · Market cap €8.6B · ISIN DE000HAG0005
What is Hensoldt AG really worth?
Below-average quality, and trading another 372% above our fair value of €16.89.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price −8.9% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€23.78). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range (€12.14 to €23.78) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €11.36 – €113.10 · fair‑value band €12.14 – €23.78 · the €79.70 price screens above the €16.89 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Hensoldt AG (HAG) currently trades at €79.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €16.89, implying the stock looks roughly 371.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €30.42 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the €79.70 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €5.75, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Hensoldt AG generated revenue of €2.6B at a net margin of 3.9%. Revenue grew 25.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.3%. Net debt stands at €701M. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €12.14 (bear case) to €23.78 (bull case); at €79.70, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −44% fair-value upside, at −79%, HAG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly €0.2174 per share, which is 1.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (€30.42) versus Asset-Based (€5.75). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Hensoldt AG, together with its subsidiaries, provides sensor solutions for defense and security applications worldwide. It operates through Sensors and Optronics segments.
Full company description
Hensoldt AG, together with its subsidiaries, provides sensor solutions for defense and security applications worldwide. It operates through Sensors and Optronics segments. It offers mobile and stationary radar, and identification friend or foe systems used for surveillance, reconnaissance, civil air traffic control, and air defense; systems for secure data connections for air, sea and land platforms; electronic systems for the acquisition and evaluation of radar and radio signals and jammers; defensive cyber solutions; and situational awareness systems, mission computers, and flight data recorders. The company also provides electronic self-protection systems that integrate missile, laser and radar warning sensors; customer support and service activities; simulation solutions, training courses and special services, and components and solutions for space-based sensors; and solutions and services for secure digitalization and networking in military and civil dimensions. In addition, it offers telescopic sights, visors, laser rangefinders, night vision devices and thermal imaging cameras; devices for surveillance and target acquisition for armored vehicles; submarine periscopes, optronic mast systems, and other electro-optical systems for use at sea; and mobile and stationary surveillance solutions; and special equipment for industrial and space applications. Further, the company provides friend-or-foe detection systems, radar for ship and land applications, cryptographic devices, and tactical point-to-point communication systems; delivery, installation and maintenance of air traffic control radar, weather radar, navigation, voice communications, and runway lighting systems for military and civil airports; and software solutions for military and non-military use. Hensoldt AG was incorporated in 2020 and is headquartered in Taufkirchen, Germany.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Hensoldt AG reported revenue of €2.5B in FY2025 versus €1.5B in FY2021, a compound +13.6%/yr. Reported net income was €89.0M in FY2025, compounding +9.0%/yr from FY2021.
HAG screens 372% overvalued. Compare with General Electric Company →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Hensoldt AG (HAGHY) (H1 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Orders and Strategic Expansion ...
- We Like The Quality Of Hensoldt's (ETR:HAG) Earnings
- Hensoldt AG (ETR:HAG) First-Quarter Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year
- Investors Can Find Comfort In Hensoldt's (ETR:HAG) Earnings Quality
Peer Group
Aerospace & Defense · 229 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| General Electric Company GE | $335.71 | $116.71 | −65% |
| RTX Corporation RTX | $212.08 | $88.37 | −58% |
| Airbus SE AIR | €213.00 | €117.01 | −45% |
| Lockheed Martin Corporation LMT | $565.89 | $419.01 | −26% |
| Howmet Aerospace Inc HWM | $264.85 | $50.43 | −81% |
| General Dynamics Corporation GD | $379.32 | $274.32 | −28% |
| Northrop Grumman Corporation NOC | $545.57 | $356.59 | −35% |
| TransDigm Group TDG | $1,235 | $571.03 | −54% |
| L3Harris Technologies, Inc LHX | $262.82 | $146.55 | −44% |
| Thales S.A HO | €243.70 | €171.13 | −30% |
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