Genesis Minerals Ltd (GMD) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · AU · Market cap A$6.7B (≈ $4.9B) · ISIN AU000000GMD9
What is Genesis Minerals Ltd really worth?
A solid business, but trading 150% above our fair value of A$3.29.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 28, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 8 days ago
Share price +41.3% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 71/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$4.11). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.6671 – A$8.67 · fair‑value band A$2.47 – A$4.11 · the A$8.24 price screens above the A$3.29 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 28, 2026.
Analysis
Genesis Minerals Ltd (GMD) currently trades at A$8.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$3.29, implying the stock looks roughly 150.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of A$8.34 per share, and 3 of the 26 models we run sit above the A$8.24 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$0.7400, and 23 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Genesis Minerals Ltd generated revenue of A$1.4B at a net margin of 28.5%. Revenue grew 142.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 30.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of A$38.6M. Fundamentals as of Aug 28, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$2.47 (bear case) to A$4.11 (bull case); at A$8.24, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 133% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −60%, GMD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 12 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly A$0.3500 per share, which is 10.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (A$8.34) versus Asset-Based (A$0.7400). Highest evidence: EPV (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 28, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 72 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Genesis Minerals Limited engages in the gold mining, project development and exploration activities in Western Australia. The company's Leonora Operations includes Admiral operations, Gwalia operations, Harbour Lights Project, Tower Hill project, and Ulysses operations.
Full company description
Genesis Minerals Limited engages in the gold mining, project development and exploration activities in Western Australia. The company's Leonora Operations includes Admiral operations, Gwalia operations, Harbour Lights Project, Tower Hill project, and Ulysses operations. Its Laverton Operations include Bruno-Lewis project, Jupiter project, Laverton Gold project, Redcliffe project; and mining services. Genesis Minerals Limited was incorporated in 2007 and is based in Perth, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Genesis Minerals Ltd reported revenue of A$920M in FY2025 versus A$80.0K in FY2021, a compound +935.7%/yr. Reported net income was A$221M in FY2025.
GMD screens 150% overvalued. Compare with Newmont Corporation →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Genesis, Vault Create A$13 Billion Australian Gold Mining Giant
- Here's Why We Think Genesis Minerals (ASX:GMD) Might Deserve Your Attention Today
- Genesis Minerals Limited (ASX:GMD) is a favorite amongst institutional investors who own 65%
Peer Group
Gold · 245 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Gold median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 28, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newmont Corporation NEMCL | $128.00 | $112.82 | −12% |
| Zijin Mining Group 601899 | ¥32.21 | ¥39.42 | +22% |
| Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM | C$268.76 | C$213.40 | −21% |
| Barrick Mining Corporation B | $41.23 | $50.66 | +23% |
| Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV | $271.31 | $96.63 | −64% |
| Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM | C$201.40 | C$56.05 | −72% |
| AngloGold Ashanti plc AU | $97.92 | $88.63 | −9% |
| Kinross Gold Corporation KGC | $32.51 | $34.62 | +6% |
| Royal Gold, Inc RGLD | $262.85 | $93.56 | −64% |
| Northern Star Resources Limited NST | A$23.19 | A$15.98 | −31% |
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