Glencore plc (GLEN) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · GB · Market cap 60.5B GBX
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 21 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from £0.5900 to £1.18 (+100.0%) since Jul 19, 2026. Share price +6.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 79% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (£1.56). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (£0.8001 to £1.56) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £2.30 – £6.15 · fair‑value band £0.8001 – £1.56 · the £5.49 price screens above the £1.18 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Glencore plc (GLEN) currently trades at £5.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £1.18, implying the stock looks roughly 78.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Glencore plc generated revenue of £248B at a net margin of 0.2%. Revenue grew 14.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.4%. Net debt stands at £39.8B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from £0.8001 (bear case) to £1.56 (bull case); at £5.49, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -42% fair-value upside, at -79%, GLEN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 21 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (£2.22) versus Earnings-Based (£0.1700). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 75
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Glencore plc engages in the production, refinement, processing, storage, transport, and marketing of metals and minerals, and energy products in the Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa, and Oceania. The company operates in two segments, Marketing Activities and Industrial Activities.
Full company description
Glencore plc engages in the production, refinement, processing, storage, transport, and marketing of metals and minerals, and energy products in the Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa, and Oceania. The company operates in two segments, Marketing Activities and Industrial Activities. It engages in the production and marketing of copper, cobalt, lead, nickel, zinc, chrome ore, ferrochrome, vanadium, aluminum, alumina, and iron ore; and coal, crude oil, refined products, and natural gas, as well as oil exploration and production and refining and distribution. The company is also involved in marketing and distributing physical commodities sourced from third party producers to industrial consumers, including the battery, electronic, construction, automotive, steel, energy, and oil industries. In addition, the company provides financing, logistics, and other services to producers and consumers of commodities. Glencore plc was founded in 1974 and is headquartered in Baar, Switzerland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Glencore plc reported revenue of £253B in FY2025 versus £204B in FY2021, a compound +5.5%/yr. Reported net income was £371M in FY2025, compounding −47.8%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +2.6 pp · buybacks/dilution +1.3 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
GLEN screens 79% overvalued. Compare with BHP Group →
Peer Group
Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 480 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BHP Group BHPN | 1,425 MXN | 745.46 MXN | -48% |
| Rio Tinto Group RIO | A$179.43 | A$81.76 | -54% |
| Grupo México, S.A. GMEXICOB | 222.38 MXN | 172.99 MXN | -22% |
| Vale S.A VALEN | 250.00 MXN | 139.41 MXN | -44% |
| Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 | 58.05 SAR | 33.87 SAR | -42% |
| CMOC Group 603993 | ¥19.00 | ¥19.80 | +4% |
| China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 | ¥70.43 | ¥9.55 | -86% |
| Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC | ₹584.60 | ₹501.98 | -14% |
| China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 | ¥41.02 | ¥10.59 | -74% |
| Boliden AB BOL | kr 527.80 | kr 461.48 | -13% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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