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Gudang Garam Tbk (GGRM) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · ID · Market cap 31.5T IDR (≈ $3.2B) · ISIN ID1000068604

What is Gudang Garam Tbk really worth?

GG Gudang Garam Tbk GGRM · JK
Price20,075 IDR
Fair Value16,988 IDR
Upside−15.4%
Quality64/100

A solid business, but trading 18% above our fair value of 16,988 IDR.

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Strengths

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −4.8 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 3.5% net margin
!Mixed vs. peers (8/15)
!Narrow moat 37/100
!Weak on valuation: 13 out of 100
!Weak on past: 19 out of 100
Evidence: High Range 12,741 IDR – 21,236 IDR

Fair value as of: Aug 22, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 14 days ago

Share price −4.2% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin.
  • The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

35,294 IDR 7,772 IDR Fair Value 16,988 IDR Mar 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 7,772 IDR – 35,294 IDR · fair‑value band 12,741 IDR – 21,236 IDR · the 20,075 IDR price screens above the 16,988 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Gudang Garam Tbk (GGRM) currently trades at 20,075 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 16,988 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 18.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 48,181 IDR per share, and 15 of the 26 models we run sit above the 20,075 IDR price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 4,967 IDR, and 11 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Gudang Garam Tbk generated revenue of 86.4T IDR at a net margin of 3.5%. Revenue declined 12.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 2.9T IDR. Fundamentals as of Aug 22, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 12,741 IDR (bear case) to 21,236 IDR (bull case); at 20,075 IDR, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 152% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at −15%, GGRM screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly 1,056 IDR per share, which is 6.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF 58,103 IDR 90,458 IDR 141,750 IDR 79
Growth DCF 59,403 IDR 88,491 IDR 131,994 IDR 78
Owner Earnings 15,033 IDR 22,603 IDR 34,604 IDR 76
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 58,103 IDR 90,458 IDR 141,750 IDR 79
Owner Earnings 15,033 IDR 22,603 IDR 34,604 IDR 76
5Y Revenue Exit 29,240 IDR 38,620 IDR 49,743 IDR 74
5Y EBITDA Exit 38,372 IDR 55,571 IDR 75,011 IDR 76
5Y P/E Exit 28,327 IDR 36,925 IDR 45,437 IDR 72
10Y Revenue Exit 38,424 IDR 49,379 IDR 62,658 IDR 68
10Y EBITDA Exit 44,782 IDR 61,371 IDR 82,252 IDR 69
10Y P/E Exit 38,252 IDR 48,181 IDR 59,319 IDR 65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 5,501 IDR 16,437 IDR 21,770 IDR 65
Lynch FV 3,477 IDR 4,967 IDR 6,457 IDR 61
PEG = 1.0 3,477 IDR 4,967 IDR 6,457 IDR 57
EPV 11,368 IDR 13,043 IDR 14,531 IDR 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 4,810 IDR 10,500 IDR 17,667 IDR 65
DDM Multi-Stage 4,810 IDR 7,964 IDR 10,943 IDR 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple 12,741 IDR 16,988 IDR 21,236 IDR 63
P/S Multiple 10,314 IDR 13,753 IDR 17,191 IDR 58
P/B Multiple 10,314 IDR 13,753 IDR 17,191 IDR 55
EV/EBIT 20,564 IDR 26,793 IDR 33,022 IDR 66
EV/EBITDA 31,657 IDR 41,584 IDR 51,510 IDR 67
EV/Revenue 15,215 IDR 20,931 IDR 26,646 IDR 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 16,259 IDR 21,787 IDR 32,518 IDR 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 59,403 IDR 88,491 IDR 131,994 IDR 78
Rev-Margin DCF 29,240 IDR 39,430 IDR 51,351 IDR 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income 23,699 IDR 23,091 IDR 19,407 IDR 76
ROIC Compounder 11,368 IDR 13,043 IDR 14,531 IDR 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 10,390 IDR 14,842 IDR 19,295 IDR 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models (48,181 IDR) versus Earnings-Based (4,967 IDR). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 12.9
P/S ratio 0.23 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) 1,554 IDR price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.9
Dividend yield 3.4% payout 43.6%
Net margin 1.7% FY2025
Return on equity 4.7% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 5.3% avg 5y
Operating margin 10.1% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) 86.4T IDR TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −12.8% 3y avg −10.5%
EPS growth (YoY) +13.8%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow 9.1T IDR FY2025
Net cash 2.9T IDR FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 64/100

Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 77

Profitability 36
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 48
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 69
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 71
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 94
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 39
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 90
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

PT Gudang Garam Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of cigarettes in Indonesia and internationally. It operates through Cigarettes, Paperboards, Infrastructure, and Others segments.

Full company description

PT Gudang Garam Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of cigarettes in Indonesia and internationally. It operates through Cigarettes, Paperboards, Infrastructure, and Others segments. The company offers hand-rolled, machine-made, and klobot clove cigarettes under the Gudang Garam Family, Surya Family, and GG Family brand names. It also involved in trading business; and provision of safety protective equipment, airport, toll road, and construction services. In addition, the company offers tobacco processing, non-scheduled air transportation, infrastructure, entertainment, and tourism services. The company was formerly known as PT Perusahaan Rokok Tjap "Gudang Garam" Kediri. PT Gudang Garam Tbk was founded in 1958 and is headquartered in Kediri, Indonesia. PT Gudang Garam Tbk operates as a subsidiary of PT Suryaduta Investama.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Gudang Garam Tbk reported revenue of 89.4T IDR in FY2025 versus 125T IDR in FY2021, a compound −8.0%/yr. Reported net income was 1.6T IDR in FY2025, compounding −27.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
89.4T IDR
Latest YoY
−9.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−10.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−4.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (25Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.4%
Value creation/yr (5Y, in IDR) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, EBIT basis) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−19.0% (−22.4 + 3.4)
Revenue −8.0%/yr
FY21 125T IDR
FY22 125T IDR
FY23 119T IDR
FY24 98.7T IDR
FY25 89.4T IDR
Net income −27.4%/yr
FY21 5.6T IDR
FY22 2.8T IDR
FY23 5.3T IDR
FY24 981B IDR
FY25 1.6T IDR
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) −9.1 % p.a.
Revenue per share +4.2 %

of which total revenue +4.2 % · buybacks/dilution +0.0 %

EBIT margin −12.9 %
Tax rate −0.3 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +0.5 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

GGRM screens 18% overvalued. Compare with Philip Morris International Inc →

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Gudang Garam Tbk · Fair Value
16,988 IDR −18%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Gudang Garam Tbk Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GGRM

Peer Group

Tobacco · 36 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 64 · Above median
Fair Value upside −15% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 5% · Below median
Return on assets 4% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 10% · Below median
Revenue growth −13% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.4% · Below median

Valuation Multiples vs Tobacco median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 12.9× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.50× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.37× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 3.7× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
PEG 1.27× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE13 · sector 38
FUTURE0 · sector 25
PAST19 · sector 51
HEALTH100 · sector 97
DIVIDEND68 · sector 78

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Tobacco

Similar stocks

10 more Tobacco stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 22, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Philip Morris International Inc PM $190.48 $103.71 −46%
British American Tobacco p.l.c. BTI $56.13 $61.07 +9%
Altria Group MO $68.65 $81.81 +19%
ITC Limited 500875 ₹279.50 ₹212.74 −24%
KT&G Corporation 033780 175,500 KRW 110,656 KRW −37%
PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk, HMSP 745.00 IDR 1,041 IDR +40%
Smoore International Holdings 6969 HK$9.24 HK$4.19 −55%
Godfrey Phillips India Limited GODFRYPHLP ₹2,160 ₹1,194 −45%
TABAK TABAK 19,100 CZK 23,215 CZK +22%
China Tobacco International (HK) Company 6055 HK$23.86 HK$24.09 +1%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Gudang Garam Tbk (GGRM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 16,988 IDR versus a price of 20,075 IDR, about −15% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GGRM?
Our model-based fair value for Gudang Garam Tbk is 16,988 IDR (as of Aug 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 20,075 IDR.
What is the quality score of GGRM?
Gudang Garam Tbk has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Gudang Garam Tbk (GGRM)?
Gudang Garam Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 86.4T IDR (latest available figure, as of Aug 22, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of GGRM?
The net profit margin of Gudang Garam Tbk is about 3.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 3.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Gudang Garam Tbk pay a dividend?
Gudang Garam Tbk currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.38% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 22, 2026).
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