Altria Group (MO) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $121B · ISIN US02209S1033
What is Altria Group really worth?
Altria Group
MO · US
A strong business, trading 15% below our fair value of $81.81.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 21 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price +1.9% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety.
- Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $29.50 – $74.92 · fair‑value band $65.52 – $105.99 · the $69.56 price screens below the $81.81 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Altria Group (MO) currently trades at $69.56, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $81.81, implying the stock looks roughly 15.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 85/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $87.36 per share, and 8 of the 21 models we run sit above the $69.56 price. Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $23.56, and 13 of the 21 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Altria Group generated revenue of $20.4B at a net margin of 39.5%. Revenue grew 5.3% year over year. Net debt stands at $21.2B. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 14.5. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $65.52 (bear case) to $105.99 (bull case); at $69.56, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at 18%, MO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.3993 per share, which is 0.5 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 21 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($87.36) versus Growth DCF ($23.56). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 80 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Altria Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells smokeable and oral tobacco products in the United States.
Full company description
Altria Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells smokeable and oral tobacco products in the United States. It offers cigarettes primarily under the Marlboro brand; large cigars and pipe tobacco under the Black & Mild brand; moist smokeless tobacco and oral tobacco products under the Copenhagen, Skoal, Red Seal, and Husky brands; oral nicotine pouches under the on! brand; and e-vapor products under the NJOY ACE brand. The company sells its products to distributors, as well as large retail organizations, such as chain stores. Altria Group, Inc. was founded in 1822 and is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Altria Group reported revenue of $20.1B in FY2025 versus $26.0B in FY2021, a compound −6.2%/yr. Reported net income was $6.9B in FY2025, compounding +29.4%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +1.7 % · buybacks/dilution +1.5 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch MO: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Peer Group
Tobacco · 36 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Tobacco median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Tobacco stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Morris International Inc PM | $190.48 | $103.71 | −46% |
| British American Tobacco p.l.c. BTI | $56.13 | $61.07 | +9% |
| ITC Limited 500875 | ₹279.50 | ₹212.74 | −24% |
| KT&G Corporation 033780 | 175,500 KRW | 110,656 KRW | −37% |
| PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk, HMSP | 745.00 IDR | 1,041 IDR | +40% |
| Smoore International Holdings 6969 | HK$9.24 | HK$4.19 | −55% |
| Godfrey Phillips India Limited GODFRYPHLP | ₹2,160 | ₹1,194 | −45% |
| PT Gudang Garam Tbk, GGRM | 20,675 IDR | 16,988 IDR | −18% |
| TABAK TABAK | 19,100 CZK | 23,215 CZK | +22% |
| China Tobacco International (HK) Company 6055 | HK$23.86 | HK$24.09 | +1% |
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