Altria Group (MO) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $121B
Altria Group
MO · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 21 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price −7.2% over the past month.
A strong business, screening 26% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The rarer combination: high quality (85/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
- Our model range runs from $65.52 (bear) to $105.99 (bull), base $81.81. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 85/100 (high quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $29.50 – $74.92 · fair‑value band $65.52 – $105.99 · the $65.08 price screens below the $81.81 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Altria Group (MO) currently trades at $65.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $81.81, implying the stock looks roughly 25.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 85/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Altria Group generated revenue of $20.4B at a net margin of 39.5%. Revenue grew 5.3% year over year. Net debt stands at $21.2B. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 13.6. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $65.52 (bear case) to $105.99 (bull case); at $65.08, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -13% fair-value upside, at 26%, MO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 21 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($87.36) versus Growth DCF ($23.56). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 80 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Altria Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells smokeable and oral tobacco products in the United States.
Full company description
Altria Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells smokeable and oral tobacco products in the United States. It offers cigarettes primarily under the Marlboro brand; large cigars and pipe tobacco under the Black & Mild brand; moist smokeless tobacco and oral tobacco products under the Copenhagen, Skoal, Red Seal, and Husky brands; oral nicotine pouches under the on! brand; and e-vapor products under the NJOY ACE brand. The company sells its products to distributors, as well as large retail organizations, such as chain stores. Altria Group, Inc. was founded in 1822 and is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Altria Group reported revenue of $20.1B in FY2025 versus $26.0B in FY2021, a compound −6.2%/yr. Reported net income was $6.9B in FY2025, compounding +29.4%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +1.7 pp · buybacks/dilution +1.5 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch MO: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Altria (MO) Stock Looks Below Fair Value Despite Mixed Signals
- Beverages, Alcohol, and Tobacco Stocks Q2 In Review: Altria (NYSE:MO) Vs Peers
- Altria Group (MO) Reported Q2 Results And Buybacks, Is It Trading At A Discount?
- Can Altria's Smoke-Free Push Finally Drive Long-Term Growth?
Peer Group
Tobacco · 33 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Tobacco median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Tobacco stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Morris International Inc PM | $186.19 | $103.71 | -44% |
| British American Tobacco p.l.c. BTI | $55.84 | $61.07 | +9% |
| KT&G Corporation 033780 | 177,400 KRW | 110,656 KRW | -38% |
| PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk, HMSP | 730.00 IDR | 1,041 IDR | +43% |
| Smoore International Holdings 6969 | HK$8.76 | HK$4.19 | -52% |
| Godfrey Phillips India Limited GODFRYPHLP | ₹2,160 | ₹1,194 | -45% |
| PT Gudang Garam Tbk, GGRM | 19,575 IDR | 16,988 IDR | -13% |
| TABAK TABAK | 18,480 CZK | 23,215 CZK | +26% |
| China Tobacco International (HK) Company 6055 | HK$22.82 | HK$24.09 | +6% |
| Universal Corporation UVV | $45.21 | $27.50 | -39% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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