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Philip Morris International Inc (PM) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $296B · ISIN US7181721090

What is Philip Morris International Inc really worth?

PM Philip Morris International Inc logo Philip Morris International Inc PM · US
Price$186.17
Fair Value$103.71
Upside−44.3%
Quality78/100

A strong business, but trading 80% above our fair value of $103.71.

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Strengths

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +7.2 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 26.7% net margin
✓Negative equity (buybacks among others) · generates free cash flow
✓Wide moat 90/100

Risks

!Mixed vs. peers (6/14)
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain

For context

·3.09% dividend yield
Evidence: Medium Range $62.46 – $148.30

Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026

From 22 valuation models · updated 6 days ago

Share price −0.4% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • A high-quality business (quality 78/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($148.30). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • A fairly wide model range ($62.46 to $148.30) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$200.17 $68.87 Fair Value $103.71 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $68.87 – $200.17 · fair‑value band $62.46 – $148.30 · the $186.17 price screens above the $103.71 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Philip Morris International Inc (PM) currently trades at $186.17, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $103.71, implying the stock looks roughly 79.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 78/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $121.61 per share, and 0 of the 22 models we run sit above the $186.17 price. Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $33.50, and 22 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, Philip Morris International Inc generated revenue of $41.5B at a net margin of 26.7%. Revenue grew 9.1% year over year. Net debt stands at $44.0B. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 25.0. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $62.46 (bear case) to $148.30 (bull case); at $186.17, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at −44%, PM screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.9068 per share, which is 0.9 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence $50.01 $84.49 $135.52 79
Growth DCF $52.74 $85.42 $131.99 77
Owner Earnings $57.91 $95.98 $152.33 75
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence $50.01 $84.49 $135.52 79
Owner Earnings $57.91 $95.98 $152.33 75
5Y Revenue Exit $17.45 $32.22 $49.66 71
5Y EBITDA Exit $60.78 $108.51 $161.35 74
5Y P/E Exit $65.75 $117.25 $168.05 70
10Y Revenue Exit $27.79 $43.22 $60.99 67
10Y EBITDA Exit $56.19 $95.70 $143.51 67
10Y P/E Exit $59.35 $101.71 $148.46 63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $49.51 $108.50 $138.25 66
PEG = 1.0 $17.18 $24.54 $31.90 57
EPV $52.42 $66.23 $78.50 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $53.23 $86.27 $125.04 68
DDM Multi-Stage $53.23 $78.47 $108.20 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $114.68 $152.90 $191.13 63
P/S Multiple $31.30 $41.73 $52.16 58
EV/EBIT $96.33 $137.05 $177.77 65
EV/EBITDA $80.07 $115.37 $150.67 67
EV/Revenue $1.55 $13.29 $25.02 47
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $52.74 $85.42 $131.99 77
Rev-Margin DCF $17.45 $33.50 $50.89 71
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder $54.72 $71.82 $89.16 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $85.12 $121.61 $158.09 67

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($121.61) versus Growth DCF ($33.50). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 25.0
P/S ratio 6.97 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $7.46 price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.0
Dividend yield 3.1% payout 77.2%
Net margin 27.9% FY2025
Return on assets (EBIT) 17.6% avg 5y
More key figures
Profitability
Operating margin 36.0% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $41.5B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +9.1% 3y avg +8.6%
EPS growth (YoY) −9.3%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $10.7B FY2025
Net debt $44.0B FY2025 · ≈ 4.1 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 78/100

Of which business quality 74 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 69

Profitability 76
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 63
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 81
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 62
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 85
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 86
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 55
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 72
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 80
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Philip Morris International Inc. operates as a tobacco company. The company offers cigarettes and smoke-free products, including heat-not-burn, e-vapor, and oral nicotine products under the IQOS, VEEV, and ZYN brands; and consumer accessories, such as lighters and matches. It also offers wellness products.

Full company description

Philip Morris International Inc. operates as a tobacco company. The company offers cigarettes and smoke-free products, including heat-not-burn, e-vapor, and oral nicotine products under the IQOS, VEEV, and ZYN brands; and consumer accessories, such as lighters and matches. It also offers wellness products. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Philip Morris International Inc reported revenue of $40.6B in FY2025 versus $31.4B in FY2021, a compound +6.7%/yr. Reported net income was $11.3B in FY2025, compounding +50.2%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.

Growth Quality 79/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$40.6B
Latest YoY
+7.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (22Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+0.9%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, adjusted) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+12.1% (9.0 + 3.1)
Revenue +6.7%/yr
FY21 $31.4B
FY22 $31.8B
FY23 $35.2B
FY24 $37.9B
FY25 $40.6B
Net income +50.2%/yr
FY21 $2.2B
FY22 $9.0B
FY23 $7.8B
FY24 $7.0B
FY25 $11.3B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +2.3 % p.a.
Revenue per share +3.5 %

of which total revenue +3.5 % · buybacks/dilution +0.0 %

EBIT margin −1.4 %
Tax rate +1.0 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −0.7 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

PM screens 80% overvalued. Compare with British American Tobacco p.l.c. →

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Philip Morris International Inc · Fair Value
$103.71 −80%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Philip Morris International Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PM

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Tobacco · 36 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 78 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −44% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 15% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 27% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 36% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 9% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.1% · Below median

Valuation Multiples vs Tobacco median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 25.0× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 7.13× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 27.7× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 18.1× · Pricier than 75% of peers
PEG 2.52× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 38
FUTURE46 · sector 25
PAST0 · sector 51
HEALTH100 · sector 97
DIVIDEND62 · sector 78

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.

Insider activity: 35/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Tobacco

Similar stocks

10 more Tobacco stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 29, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
British American Tobacco p.l.c. BTI $56.13 $61.07 +9%
Altria Group MO $68.65 $81.81 +19%
ITC Limited 500875 ₹279.50 ₹212.74 −24%
KT&G Corporation 033780 175,500 KRW 110,656 KRW −37%
PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk, HMSP 745.00 IDR 1,041 IDR +40%
Smoore International Holdings 6969 HK$9.24 HK$4.19 −55%
Godfrey Phillips India Limited GODFRYPHLP ₹2,160 ₹1,194 −45%
PT Gudang Garam Tbk, GGRM 20,675 IDR 16,988 IDR −18%
TABAK TABAK 19,100 CZK 23,215 CZK +22%
China Tobacco International (HK) Company 6055 HK$23.86 HK$24.09 +1%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Philip Morris International Inc (PM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $103.71 versus a price of $186.17, about −44% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PM?
Our model-based fair value for Philip Morris International Inc is $103.71 (as of Aug 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $186.17.
What is the quality score of PM?
Philip Morris International Inc has a Quality Score of 78/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Philip Morris International Inc (PM)?
Philip Morris International Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $41.5B (latest available figure, as of Aug 29, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of PM?
The net profit margin of Philip Morris International Inc is about 26.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 26.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Philip Morris International Inc pay a dividend?
Philip Morris International Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.09% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 29, 2026).
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