Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT (HMSP) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · ID · Market cap 80.8T IDR (≈ $8.1B) · ISIN ID1000074008
What is Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT really worth?
A solid business, trading 16% below our fair value of 885.21 IDR.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 19, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Share price −2.6% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A fairly wide model range (591.64 IDR to 1,235 IDR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 431.14 IDR – 898.61 IDR · fair‑value band 591.64 IDR – 1,235 IDR · the 740.00 IDR price screens below the 885.21 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.
Analysis
Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT (HMSP) currently trades at 740.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 885.21 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 16.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 1,141 IDR per share, and 17 of the 24 models we run sit above the 740.00 IDR price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 163.30 IDR, and 7 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT generated revenue of 47.8T IDR at a net margin of 14.1%. Revenue declined 6.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 22.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 4.4T IDR. Fundamentals as of Aug 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 591.64 IDR (bear case) to 1,235 IDR (bull case); at 740.00 IDR, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 57% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at 20%, HMSP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly 40.07 IDR per share, which is 4.5 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (1,141 IDR) versus Asset-Based (163.30 IDR). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, engages in manufacture, distribution, and trading of cigarettes and other tobacco products in Indonesia and Internationally.
Full company description
PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, engages in manufacture, distribution, and trading of cigarettes and other tobacco products in Indonesia and Internationally. It offers combustible cigarettes, including machine-made kretek (SKM), hand-rolled kretek, machine-made white, and hand-rolled white cigarettes under the Dji Sam Soe Magnum, Sampoerna Kretek, Sampoerna A, Magnum, and Marlboro Filter Black brand names. The company also provides smoke-free products, such as heat-not-burn, e-vapor, and oral smokeless products. In addition, it is involved in general trading; e-commerce and agency; and property development business. Further, the company offers general importer, warehousing, and delivery services; job training; and management consulting, advertising, and brand management services. The company was founded in 1913 and is headquartered in Surabaya, Indonesia. PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk operates as a subsidiary of PT Philip Morris Indonesia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT reported revenue of 44.3T IDR in FY2025 versus 98.9T IDR in FY2021, a compound −18.2%/yr. Reported net income was 6.6T IDR in FY2025, compounding −1.9%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue −2.6 % · buybacks/dilution +8.6 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Tobacco · 36 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Tobacco median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Tobacco stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Morris International Inc PM | $190.48 | $103.71 | −46% |
| British American Tobacco p.l.c. BTI | $56.13 | $61.07 | +9% |
| Altria Group MO | $68.65 | $81.81 | +19% |
| ITC Limited 500875 | ₹279.50 | ₹212.74 | −24% |
| KT&G Corporation 033780 | 175,500 KRW | 110,656 KRW | −37% |
| Smoore International Holdings 6969 | HK$9.24 | HK$4.19 | −55% |
| Godfrey Phillips India Limited GODFRYPHLP | ₹2,160 | ₹1,194 | −45% |
| PT Gudang Garam Tbk, GGRM | 20,675 IDR | 16,988 IDR | −18% |
| TABAK TABAK | 19,100 CZK | 23,215 CZK | +22% |
| China Tobacco International (HK) Company 6055 | HK$23.86 | HK$24.09 | +1% |
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