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China Tobacco International (HK) Company (6055) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · HK · Market cap HK$13.9B

CT China Tobacco International (HK) Company 6055 · HK
PriceHK$22.14
Fair ValueHK$24.09
Upside+8.8%
Quality62/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 6.7% net margin
generates free cash flow
2.71% dividend yield
Trails peers (3/13)
Moderate moat 60/100
Evidence: High Range HK$18.07 – HK$39.82 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday

Share price +8.3% over the past month.

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • A fairly wide model range (HK$18.07 to HK$39.82) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$46.48 HK$6.98 Fair Value HK$24.09 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$6.98 – HK$46.48 · fair‑value band HK$18.07 – HK$39.82 · the HK$22.14 price screens below the HK$24.09 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

China Tobacco International (HK) Company (6055) currently trades at HK$22.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$24.09, implying the stock looks roughly 8.8% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, China Tobacco International (HK) Company generated revenue of HK$14.6B at a net margin of 6.7%. Revenue declined 2.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 29.8%. Net debt stands at HK$2.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$18.07 (bear case) to HK$39.82 (bull case); at HK$22.14, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 53% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -13% fair-value upside, at 9%, 6055 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income HK$9.47 HK$12.68 HK$72.74 76
Growth DCF HK$20.57 HK$38.07 HK$69.34 72
Gordon GGM HK$4.59 HK$9.55 HK$15.14 70
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$21.01 HK$39.77 HK$78.40 38
Owner Earnings HK$21.03 HK$41.05 HK$78.45 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$18.70 HK$34.21 HK$56.00 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$19.22 HK$35.33 HK$56.26 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$21.31 HK$39.88 HK$62.07 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$18.68 HK$34.06 HK$59.27 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$19.66 HK$34.90 HK$59.50 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$21.08 HK$38.34 HK$64.63 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$9.64 HK$53.02 HK$73.57 54
Lynch FV HK$14.76 HK$21.09 HK$27.42 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$14.76 HK$21.09 HK$27.42 46
EPV HK$15.08 HK$17.53 HK$19.67 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$4.59 HK$9.55 HK$15.14 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$4.59 HK$8.05 HK$10.02 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$22.32 HK$29.76 HK$37.20 63
P/S Multiple HK$18.07 HK$24.09 HK$30.12 58
P/B Multiple HK$18.07 HK$24.09 HK$30.12 55
EV/EBIT HK$24.38 HK$32.38 HK$40.37 53
EV/EBITDA HK$19.53 HK$25.90 HK$32.28 54
EV/Revenue HK$17.52 HK$24.85 HK$32.19 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$2.63 HK$3.53 HK$5.27 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$20.57 HK$38.07 HK$69.34 72
Rev-Margin DCF HK$18.70 HK$33.64 HK$54.07 67
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$9.47 HK$12.68 HK$72.74 76
ROIC Compounder HK$17.34 HK$23.15 HK$30.50 67
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$21.44 HK$30.63 HK$39.82 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$35.33) versus Asset-Based (HK$3.53). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$14.6B
Revenue growth (YoY) -2.5%
Net margin 6.7%
Return on equity 29.8%
Free cash flow HK$1.0B FY2025
P/E ratio 14.2 as of Jul 2, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 10.2%
EPS (TTM) HK$1.02
Dividend yield 2.7%
EPS growth (YoY) +30.2%
Net debt HK$2.5B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 62/100

Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 22

Profitability 65
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 63
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 53
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 56
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 47
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 54
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 9
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 7
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

China Tobacco International (HK) Company Limited engages in tobacco business. The company operates through Tobacco Leaf Products Export Business, Tobacco Leaf Products Import Business, Cigarettes Export Business, New Tobacco Products Export Business, and Brazil Operation Business segments.

Full company description

China Tobacco International (HK) Company Limited engages in tobacco business. The company operates through Tobacco Leaf Products Export Business, Tobacco Leaf Products Import Business, Cigarettes Export Business, New Tobacco Products Export Business, and Brazil Operation Business segments. The Tobacco Leaf Products Export Business segment exports tobacco leaf products to cigarette manufacturers and authorized purchasing agents of cigarette manufacturers in Southeast Asia, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan. The Tobacco Leaf Products Import Business segment imports tobacco leaf products to Mainland China and internationally. The New Tobacco Products Export Business segment exports new tobacco products to retailers, cigarettes wholesalers, and independent third parties. The Cigarettes Export Business segment exports cigarettes to duty-paid retailers, duty-free operators, and cigarettes wholesalers, as well as sells cigarettes through distributors. The Brazil Operation Business segment engages in the procurement, processing, and sale of tobacco leaves; and procurement of agricultural materials related to tobacco production in Brazil and internationally. The company was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Kowloon, Hong Kong. China Tobacco International (HK) Company Limited is a subsidiary of China Tobacco International Group Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

China Tobacco International (HK) Company reported revenue of HK$14.6B in FY2025 versus HK$8.1B in FY2021, a compound +16.0%/yr. Reported net income was HK$980M in FY2025, compounding +8.7%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$14.6B
Latest YoY
+11.5%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+20.5%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+33.1%
Avg. growth/yr (10Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.7%
Revenue +16.0%/yr
FY21 HK$8.1B
FY22 HK$8.3B
FY23 HK$11.8B
FY24 HK$13.1B
FY25 HK$14.6B
Net income +8.7%/yr
FY21 HK$703M
FY22 HK$375M
FY23 HK$599M
FY24 HK$854M
FY25 HK$980M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2015-2025) +9.5 % p.a.
Revenue per share +7.3 pp

of which total revenue +7.8 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.5 pp

EBIT margin +4.6 pp
Tax rate −0.1 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −2.3 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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China Tobacco International (HK) Company · Fair Value
HK$24.09 +9%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Tobacco International (HK) Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/6055

Peer Group

Tobacco · 33 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 62 · Below median
Fair Value upside +9% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 30% · Top 25%
Return on assets 9% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 7% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 10% · Below median
Revenue growth -3% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.7% · Below median

Valuation Multiples vs Tobacco median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 14.2× · Pricier than median
P/B 3.82× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.96× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 1.7× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 10.2× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 45 · sector 56
FUTURE 0 · sector 27
PAST 100 · sector 50
HEALTH 0 · sector 98
DIVIDEND 54 · sector 66

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Tobacco

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Tobacco stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Philip Morris International Inc PM $186.19 $103.71 -44%
British American Tobacco p.l.c. BTI $55.84 $61.07 +9%
Altria Group MO $64.38 $81.81 +27%
KT&G Corporation 033780 177,400 KRW 110,656 KRW -38%
PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk, HMSP 730.00 IDR 1,041 IDR +43%
Smoore International Holdings 6969 HK$8.76 HK$4.19 -52%
Godfrey Phillips India Limited GODFRYPHLP ₹2,160 ₹1,194 -45%
PT Gudang Garam Tbk, GGRM 19,575 IDR 16,988 IDR -13%
TABAK TABAK 18,480 CZK 23,215 CZK +26%
Universal Corporation UVV $45.21 $27.50 -39%

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Frequently asked questions

Is China Tobacco International (HK) Company (6055) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$24.09 versus a price of HK$22.14, about +9% (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 6055?
Our model-based fair value for China Tobacco International (HK) Company is HK$24.09 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$22.14.
What is the quality score of 6055?
China Tobacco International (HK) Company has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of China Tobacco International (HK) Company (6055)?
China Tobacco International (HK) Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$14.6B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 6055?
The net profit margin of China Tobacco International (HK) Company is about 6.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 6.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does China Tobacco International (HK) Company pay a dividend?
China Tobacco International (HK) Company currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.71% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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