Greatland Resources Limited (GGP) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · AU · Market cap A$6.7B (≈ $4.8B) · ISIN AU0000397705
What is Greatland Resources Limited really worth?
A strong business, but trading 215% above our fair value of A$3.70.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price +4.9% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 80/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$4.53). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Price vs Fair Value (14 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
14‑month range A$4.98 – A$15.23 · fair‑value band A$2.87 – A$4.53 · the A$11.67 price screens above the A$3.70 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Greatland Resources Limited (GGP) currently trades at A$11.67, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$3.70, implying the stock looks roughly 215.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 80/100 (high quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of A$4.17 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the A$11.67 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$0.6400, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
It earns a return on equity of 47.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of A$260M. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 6.6. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$2.87 (bear case) to A$4.53 (bull case); at A$11.67, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 138% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −68%, GGP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 12 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly A$1.77 per share, which is 47.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (A$4.17) versus Asset-Based (A$0.6400). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (81).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 80 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Greatland Resources Limited operates as a gold and copper mining company. The company owns a 100% interest in the Telfer gold-copper mine located in the Paterson region of Western Australia; and in the Havieron brownfield development project, a gold-copper deposit located in Western Australia, as well as owns various exploration projects across Western …
Full company description
Greatland Resources Limited operates as a gold and copper mining company. The company owns a 100% interest in the Telfer gold-copper mine located in the Paterson region of Western Australia; and in the Havieron brownfield development project, a gold-copper deposit located in Western Australia, as well as owns various exploration projects across Western Australia. Greatland Resources Limited was incorporated in 2023 and is based in Subiaco, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Greatland Resources Limited reported revenue of A$459M in FY2025 versus A$0 in FY2021. Reported net income was A$162M in FY2025.
GGP screens 215% overvalued. Compare with Newmont Corporation →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Greatland Resources delivers A$862 million profit in first full year of Telfer ownership
- Greatland Resources strengthens leadership team to drive Telfer-Havieron growth
- Greatland Resources, Valereum, Avon Technologies, Krakatoa Resources - Small Cap Snapshot
- Greatland Resources lands $500m as it advances Havieron FID
Peer Group
Gold · 245 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Gold median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newmont Corporation NEMCL | $128.00 | $112.82 | −12% |
| Zijin Mining Group 601899 | ¥32.21 | ¥39.42 | +22% |
| Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM | C$268.76 | C$213.40 | −21% |
| Barrick Mining Corporation B | $41.23 | $50.66 | +23% |
| Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV | $271.31 | $96.63 | −64% |
| Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM | C$201.40 | C$56.05 | −72% |
| AngloGold Ashanti plc AU | $97.92 | $88.63 | −9% |
| Kinross Gold Corporation KGC | $32.51 | $34.62 | +6% |
| Royal Gold, Inc RGLD | $262.85 | $93.56 | −64% |
| Northern Star Resources Limited NST | A$23.19 | A$15.98 | −31% |
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