The GEO Group (GEO) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $3.9B
The GEO Group
GEO · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $32.36 to $25.50 (−21.2%) since Jul 19, 2026. Share price +2.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 16% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range ($16.03 to $34.98) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.11 – $35.35 · fair‑value band $16.03 – $34.98 · the $30.37 price screens above the $25.50 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
The GEO Group (GEO) currently trades at $30.37, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $25.50, implying the stock looks roughly 16.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, The GEO Group generated revenue of $2.7B at a net margin of 10.0%. Revenue grew 16.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 19.3%. Net debt stands at $1.7B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $16.03 (bear case) to $34.98 (bull case); at $30.37, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 143% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at -16%, GEO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 17 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($35.64) versus Dividend Discount ($0.5500). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 79
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
The GEO Group, Inc. is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom.
Full company description
The GEO Group, Inc. is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO's diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO's worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 95 facilities totaling approximately 75,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 20,000 employees. The GEO Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1984 and is based in Boca Raton, United States.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
The GEO Group reported revenue of $2.6B in FY2025 versus $2.3B in FY2021, a compound +3.9%/yr. Reported net income was $254M in FY2025, compounding +34.6%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +3.0 pp · buybacks/dilution −2.1 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
GEO screens 16% overvalued. Compare with ASSA ABLOY AB →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Earnings Estimates Rising for Geo Group (GEO): Will It Gain?
- Should GEO Group’s Buyback and New ICE Contract Shift the Earnings Outlook for GEO (GEO) Investors?
- Why GEO Group (GEO) Is Back In The Spotlight
- Zacks.com featured highlights include OptimumBank, EuroDry, Enova International, Anika Therapeutics and The GEO
Peer Group
Security & Protection Services · 113 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Security & Protection Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Security & Protection Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASSA ABLOY AB ASSAB | kr 360.50 | kr 269.97 | -25% |
| Verisure plc VSURE | €9.33 | €12.40 | +33% |
| Allegion plc ALLE | $166.11 | $127.80 | -23% |
| Securitas AB SECUB | kr 147.90 | kr 186.34 | +26% |
| Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co 002236 | ¥16.46 | ¥31.47 | +91% |
| MSA Safety Incorporated MSA | $192.04 | $116.42 | -39% |
| ADT Inc ADT | $7.31 | $16.68 | +128% |
| The Brink's Company BCO | $113.96 | $121.18 | +6% |
| Brady Corporation BRC | $95.12 | $72.32 | -24% |
| Loomis AB LOOMIS | kr 512.00 | kr 496.43 | -3% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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