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Geo Group Inc (GEO) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · US · Market cap $3.9B · ISIN US36162J1060

What is Geo Group Inc really worth?

GG Geo Group Inc logo Geo Group Inc GEO · US
Price$30.88
Fair Value$25.50
Upside−17.4%
Quality43/100

Below-average quality, and trading another 21% above our fair value of $25.50.

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Strengths

✓Solidly profitable · 10.0% net margin

Risks

!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +2.3 %/yr)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (6/14)
!Moderate moat 51/100
!Weak on valuation: 10 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 3 out of 100
Evidence: High Range $16.03 – $34.98

Fair value as of: Sep 2, 2026

From 17 valuation models · updated 2 days ago

Share price −1.3% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
  • A fairly wide model range ($16.03 to $34.98) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$35.35 $5.25 Fair Value $25.50 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $5.25 – $35.35 · fair‑value band $16.03 – $34.98 · the $30.88 price screens above the $25.50 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Geo Group Inc (GEO) currently trades at $30.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $25.50, implying the stock looks roughly 21.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $35.64 per share, and 5 of the 17 models we run sit above the $30.88 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $7.54, and 12 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Geo Group Inc generated revenue of $2.7B at a net margin of 10.0%. Revenue grew 16.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 19.3%. Net debt stands at $1.7B. Fundamentals as of Sep 2, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $16.03 (bear case) to $34.98 (bull case); at $30.88, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 147% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 7% fair-value upside, at −17%, GEO screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $1.33 per share, which is 5.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Owner Earnings best evidence $3.50 $11.66 $23.67 70
EPV — $1.71 $3.30 68
ROIC Compounder — $1.71 $3.30 68
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings best evidence $3.50 $11.66 $23.67 70
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $12.95 $41.03 $54.66 64
Lynch FV $9.02 $12.89 $16.75 61
PEG = 1.0 $9.02 $12.89 $16.75 57
EPV — $1.71 $3.30 68
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $0.3300 $0.6700 $1.01 67
DDM Multi-Stage $0.3300 $0.5500 $0.7000 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $29.98 $39.98 $49.97 63
P/S Multiple $24.27 $32.36 $40.45 58
P/B Multiple $24.27 $32.36 $40.45 55
EV/EBIT $12.74 $20.93 $29.12 64
EV/EBITDA $16.60 $26.07 $35.55 66
EV/Revenue $5.71 $13.22 $20.74 51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $5.63 $7.54 $11.26 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $12.17 $16.86 $63.79 64
ROIC Compounder — $1.71 $3.30 68
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $24.95 $35.64 $46.33 67

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($35.64) versus Dividend Discount ($0.5500). Highest evidence: Owner Earnings (70).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 15.7
P/S ratio 1.52 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $1.97 price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.7
Dividend yield 0.2% payout 2.4%
Net margin 9.7% FY2025
Return on equity 19.3% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 8.3% avg 5y
Operating margin 12.7% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $2.7B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +16.6% 3y avg +3.5%
EPS growth (YoY) +107%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow −$125M FY2025
Net debt $1.7B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 43/100

Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 78

Profitability 47
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 61
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 6
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 34
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 74
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 51
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 89
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 89
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 37
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

The GEO Group, Inc. is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom.

Full company description

The GEO Group, Inc. is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO's diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO's worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 95 facilities totaling approximately 75,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 20,000 employees. The GEO Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1984 and is based in Boca Raton, United States.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Geo Group Inc reported revenue of $2.6B in FY2025 versus $2.3B in FY2021, a compound +3.9%/yr. Reported net income was $254M in FY2025, compounding +34.6%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 35/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$2.6B
Latest YoY
+8.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (32Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+12.4%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, adjusted) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+6.5% (6.3 + 0.2)
Revenue +3.9%/yr
FY21 $2.3B
FY22 $2.4B
FY23 $2.4B
FY24 $2.4B
FY25 $2.6B
Net income +34.6%/yr
FY21 $77.4M
FY22 $172M
FY23 $107M
FY24 $32.0M
FY25 $254M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) −3.0 % p.a.
Revenue per share +1.0 %

of which total revenue +3.0 % · buybacks/dilution −2.0 %

EBIT margin −0.5 %
Tax rate −2.4 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −1.1 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

GEO screens 21% overvalued. Compare with ASSA ABLOY AB →

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Geo Group Inc · Fair Value
$25.50 −21%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Geo Group Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GEO

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Security & Protection Services · 108 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 43 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −17% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 19% · Top 25%
Return on assets 5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 10% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 13% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 17% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.2% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 1.10× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Security & Protection Services median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 15.7× · Cheaper than median
P/B 2.62× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 1.44× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 12.0× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.82× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE10 · sector 30
FUTURE83 · sector 39
PAST77 · sector 22
HEALTH45 · sector 99
DIVIDEND3 · sector 52

Insider activity: 46/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Security & Protection Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 2, 2026).

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Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co 002236 ¥16.46 ¥31.47 +91%
MSA Safety Incorporated MSA $190.34 $116.42 −39%
ADT Inc ADT $7.44 $16.68 +124%
The Brink's Company BCO $113.12 $121.18 +7%
Brady Corporation BRC $93.25 $72.32 −22%
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Frequently asked questions

Is Geo Group Inc (GEO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $25.50 versus a price of $30.88, about −17% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GEO?
Our model-based fair value for Geo Group Inc is $25.50 (as of Sep 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $30.88.
What is the quality score of GEO?
Geo Group Inc has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Geo Group Inc (GEO)?
Geo Group Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 2, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of GEO?
The net profit margin of Geo Group Inc is about 10.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 10.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Geo Group Inc pay a dividend?
Geo Group Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.15% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 2, 2026).
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