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Allegion PLC (ALLE) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · US · Market cap $12.0B · ISIN IE00BFRT3W74

What is Allegion PLC really worth?

AP Allegion PLC logo Allegion PLC ALLE · US
Price$155.56
Fair Value$127.80
Upside−17.9%
Quality68/100

A solid business, but trading 22% above our fair value of $127.80.

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Strengths

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +8.4 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 15.2% net margin
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓Wide moat 74/100

Risks

!Mixed vs. peers (7/15)
!Weak on valuation: 10 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 27 out of 100

For context

·1.34% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range $75.79 – $165.34

Fair value as of: Aug 14, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Share price −5.9% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range ($75.79 to $165.34) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$178.36 $84.14 Fair Value $127.80 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 14, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $84.14 – $178.36 · fair‑value band $75.79 – $165.34 · the $155.56 price screens above the $127.80 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 14, 2026.

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Analysis

Allegion PLC (ALLE) currently trades at $155.56, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $127.80, implying the stock looks roughly 21.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $140.34 per share, and 2 of the 26 models we run sit above the $155.56 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $16.12, and 24 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Allegion PLC generated revenue of $4.2B at a net margin of 15.2%. Revenue grew 9.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 34.2%. Net debt stands at $1.9B. Fundamentals as of Aug 14, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $75.79 (bear case) to $165.34 (bull case); at $155.56, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 7% fair-value upside, at −18%, ALLE screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $3.68 per share, which is 2.9 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $72.17 $123.79 $203.00 78
Growth DCF $73.65 $119.17 $184.68 77
Owner Earnings $71.27 $122.37 $200.80 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $72.17 $123.79 $203.00 78
Owner Earnings $71.27 $122.37 $200.80 74
5Y Revenue Exit $49.90 $86.41 $132.42 71
5Y EBITDA Exit $78.25 $139.68 $211.31 74
5Y P/E Exit $81.38 $145.55 $213.00 70
10Y Revenue Exit $55.26 $90.59 $137.15 66
10Y EBITDA Exit $75.20 $127.66 $197.60 67
10Y P/E Exit $77.19 $131.74 $198.90 63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $50.94 $161.74 $215.53 64
Lynch FV $35.61 $50.87 $66.13 61
PEG = 1.0 $35.61 $50.87 $66.13 57
EPV $62.55 $76.12 $88.00 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $18.73 $38.94 $61.78 66
DDM Multi-Stage $18.73 $31.25 $40.87 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $117.99 $157.32 $196.66 63
P/S Multiple $70.99 $94.66 $118.32 58
P/B Multiple $81.20 $108.27 $135.34 55
EV/EBIT $108.63 $151.13 $193.64 66
EV/EBITDA $93.73 $131.28 $168.82 67
EV/Revenue $40.74 $66.30 $91.86 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $12.03 $16.12 $24.06 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $73.65 $119.17 $184.68 77
Rev-Margin DCF $49.90 $87.00 $130.11 71
Economic Profit
Residual Income $52.19 $73.83 $583.83 64
ROIC Compounder $68.58 $92.11 $119.72 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $98.24 $140.34 $182.45 67

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($140.34) versus Asset-Based ($16.12). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 20.7
P/S ratio 3.27 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $7.52 price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.7
Dividend yield 1.3% payout 27.7%
Net margin 15.8% FY2025
Return on equity 34.2% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 16.5% avg 5y
Operating margin 18.9% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $4.2B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +9.7% 3y avg +7.5%
EPS growth (YoY) −7.0%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $686M FY2025
Net debt $1.9B FY2025 · ≈ 2.8 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 68/100

Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54

Profitability 72
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 42
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 69
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 57
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 50
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 73
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 50
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 41
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 91
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Allegion plc engages in the provision of security products and solutions worldwide. It is operating through two segments: Allegion Americas and Allegion International.

Full company description

Allegion plc engages in the provision of security products and solutions worldwide. It is operating through two segments: Allegion Americas and Allegion International. The company offers door controls, door control system, and exit devices; doors, glass and door systems, and accessories; electronic security products and access control systems, including time, attendance, and workforce productivity; and locks, locksets, portable locks, and key systems. It also provides services and software, such as inspection, maintenance, and repair services for its automatic entrance solutions; software as a service, including access control, platform integration, and workforce management solutions; and ongoing aftermarket services, and design and installation offerings. In addition, the company sells its products and solutions to end-users in commercial, institutional, and residential facilities, including education, healthcare, government, hospitality, retail, commercial office, and single and multi-family residential markets under the CISA, Interflex, LCN, Schlage, SimonsVoss, and Von Duprin brands. It sells its products and solutions through distribution and retail channels, such as specialty distribution, e-commerce, and wholesalers, as well as through various retail channels comprising do-it-yourself home improvement centers, online and e-commerce platforms, and small specialty showroom outlets. Allegion plc was incorporated in 2013 and is based in Dublin, Ireland.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Allegion PLC reported revenue of $4.1B in FY2025 versus $2.9B in FY2021, a compound +9.1%/yr. Reported net income was $644M in FY2025, compounding +7.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 87/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$4.1B
Latest YoY
+7.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (14Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.1%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, adjusted) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+11.3% (10.0 + 1.3)
Revenue +9.1%/yr
FY21 $2.9B
FY22 $3.3B
FY23 $3.7B
FY24 $3.8B
FY25 $4.1B
Net income +7.4%/yr
FY21 $483M
FY22 $458M
FY23 $540M
FY24 $598M
FY25 $644M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +15.1 % p.a.
Revenue per share +7.9 %

of which total revenue +6.7 % · buybacks/dilution +1.2 %

EBIT margin +1.8 %
Tax rate +1.7 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +3.0 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

ALLE screens 22% overvalued. Compare with ASSA ABLOY AB →

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Allegion PLC · Fair Value
$127.80 −22%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Allegion PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALLE

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Security & Protection Services · 108 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −18% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 34% · Top 25%
Return on assets 11% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 15% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 19% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 10% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.3% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.96× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Security & Protection Services median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 20.7× · Cheaper than median
P/B 5.80× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 2.88× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 17.5× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 13.5× · Pricier than median
PEG 2.09× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE10 · sector 30
FUTURE49 · sector 39
PAST100 · sector 22
HEALTH52 · sector 99
DIVIDEND27 · sector 52

Insider activity: 66/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Security & Protection Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 14, 2026).

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Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co 002236 ¥16.46 ¥31.47 +91%
MSA Safety Incorporated MSA $190.34 $116.42 −39%
ADT Inc ADT $7.44 $16.68 +124%
The Brink's Company BCO $113.12 $121.18 +7%
Brady Corporation BRC $93.25 $72.32 −22%
The GEO Group GEO $31.81 $25.50 −20%
Loomis AB LOOMIS kr 533.00 kr 496.43 −7%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Allegion PLC (ALLE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 14, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $127.80 versus a price of $155.56, about −18% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ALLE?
Our model-based fair value for Allegion PLC is $127.80 (as of Aug 14, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $155.56.
What is the quality score of ALLE?
Allegion PLC has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Allegion PLC (ALLE)?
Allegion PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.2B (latest available figure, as of Aug 14, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of ALLE?
The net profit margin of Allegion PLC is about 15.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 15.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Allegion PLC pay a dividend?
Allegion PLC currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.34% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 14, 2026).
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