MSA Safety (MSA) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $6.5B · ISIN US5534981064
What is MSA Safety really worth?
MSA Safety
MSA · US
A solid business, but trading 61% above our fair value of $116.42.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price −2.9% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($163.75). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($74.75 to $163.75) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $104.43 – $201.92 · fair‑value band $74.75 – $163.75 · the $187.71 price screens above the $116.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
MSA Safety (MSA) currently trades at $187.71, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $116.42, implying the stock looks roughly 61.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $124.75 per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the $187.71 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $23.73, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, MSA Safety generated revenue of $1.9B at a net margin of 15.2%. Revenue grew 10.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 22.8%. Net debt stands at $462M. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $74.75 (bear case) to $163.75 (bull case); at $187.71, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 7% fair-value upside, at −38%, MSA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $3.58 per share, which is 3.1 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($124.75) versus Asset-Based ($23.73). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
MSA Safety Incorporated develops, manufactures, and supplies safety products and technology solutions that protect workers and facility infrastructures worldwide.
Full company description
MSA Safety Incorporated develops, manufactures, and supplies safety products and technology solutions that protect workers and facility infrastructures worldwide. The company offers breathing apparatus products, including self-contained breathing apparatus; firefighter helmets and protective apparel; and fixed gas and flame detection systems, such as fixed gas detection monitoring systems, flame detectors and open-path infrared gas detectors, and refrigerant detection and identification solution, as well as hand-held portable gas detection instruments to detect the presence or absence of various gases in the air. It also provides industrial head protection and accessories; fall protection equipment, such as confined space equipment, harnesses, lanyards, and self-retracting lifelines, as well as engineered systems; and air-purifying respirators, eye and face protection products, ballistic helmets, and gas masks. The company serves fire service, energy, utility, construction, and industrial manufacturing applications, as well as heating, ventilation, air conditioning, and refrigeration industries through distributors and end-users through indirect and direct sales channels. It offers its products under the V-Gard, Cairns, and Gallet brand names. MSA Safety Incorporated was founded in 1914 and is based in Cranberry Township, Pennsylvania.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
MSA Safety reported revenue of $1.9B in FY2025 versus $1.4B in FY2021, a compound +7.6%/yr. Reported net income was $279M in FY2025, compounding +90.1%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
of which total revenue +5.4 % · buybacks/dilution −0.5 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
MSA screens 61% overvalued. Compare with ASSA ABLOY AB →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Spotting Winners: Motorola Solutions (NYSE:MSI) And Safety & Security Services Stocks In Q2
- Sentinel Closes Sale of Spectrum Safety Solutions' Marioff Unit
- Can MSA Safety (MSA) Justify Its Price After The Autronica Deal?
- MSA Safety Releases Latest Impact Report
Peer Group
Security & Protection Services · 108 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Security & Protection Services median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Security & Protection Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASSA ABLOY AB ASSAB | kr 360.50 | kr 269.97 | −25% |
| Verisure plc VSURE | €9.33 | €12.40 | +33% |
| Allegion plc ALLE | $166.11 | $127.80 | −23% |
| Securitas AB SECUB | kr 147.90 | kr 186.34 | +26% |
| Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co 002236 | ¥16.46 | ¥31.47 | +91% |
| ADT Inc ADT | $7.44 | $16.68 | +124% |
| The Brink's Company BCO | $113.12 | $121.18 | +7% |
| Brady Corporation BRC | $93.25 | $72.32 | −22% |
| The GEO Group GEO | $31.81 | $25.50 | −20% |
| Loomis AB LOOMIS | kr 533.00 | kr 496.43 | −7% |
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