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Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V (GCARSOA1) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · MX · Market cap 285B MXN (≈ $16.9B) · ISIN MXP461181085

What is Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V really worth?

GC Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V GCARSOA1 · MX
Price143.29 MXN
Fair Value81.79 MXN
Upside−42.9%
Quality60/100

A solid business, but trading 75% above our fair value of 81.79 MXN.

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Strengths

Low debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +16.5 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 4.1% net margin
!Mixed vs. peers (7/14)
!Narrow moat 39/100
!Weak on past: 26 out of 100
Evidence: High Range 61.34 MXN – 102.24 MXN

Fair value as of: Aug 20, 2026

From 13 valuation models · updated 16 days ago

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (102.24 MXN). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

184.05 MXN 52.11 MXN Fair Value 81.79 MXN May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 52.11 MXN – 184.05 MXN · fair‑value band 61.34 MXN – 102.24 MXN · the 143.29 MXN price screens above the 81.79 MXN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.

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Analysis

Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V (GCARSOA1) currently trades at 143.29 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 81.79 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 75.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 120.52 MXN per share, and 0 of the 13 models we run sit above the 143.29 MXN price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 21.07 MXN, and 13 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V generated revenue of 191B MXN at a net margin of 4.1%. Revenue declined 0.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.5%. Net debt stands at 13.2B MXN. Fundamentals as of Aug 20, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 61.34 MXN (bear case) to 102.24 MXN (bull case); at 143.29 MXN, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at −43%, GCARSOA1 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly 2.64 MXN per share, which is 3.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF best evidence 86.52 MXN 127.71 MXN 188.54 MXN 78
Owner Earnings 42.56 MXN 65.14 MXN 100.28 MXN 76
Residual Income 51.91 MXN 54.20 MXN 56.28 MXN 76
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings 42.56 MXN 65.14 MXN 100.28 MXN 76
5Y P/E Exit 65.14 MXN 97.86 MXN 131.11 MXN 71
10Y P/E Exit 71.17 MXN 100.92 MXN 135.42 MXN 64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 26.48 MXN 73.57 MXN 96.68 MXN 65
Lynch FV 14.75 MXN 21.07 MXN 27.39 MXN 61
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 21.66 MXN 47.29 MXN 79.56 MXN 65
DDM Multi-Stage 21.66 MXN 34.79 MXN 49.28 MXN 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple 61.34 MXN 81.79 MXN 102.24 MXN 63
P/B Multiple 49.66 MXN 66.21 MXN 82.76 MXN 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 32.17 MXN 43.11 MXN 64.35 MXN 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF best evidence 86.52 MXN 127.71 MXN 188.54 MXN 78
Rev-Margin DCF 77.28 MXN 120.52 MXN 168.81 MXN 72
Economic Profit
Residual Income 51.91 MXN 54.20 MXN 56.28 MXN 76

Widest divergence: Growth DCF (120.52 MXN) versus Earnings-Based (21.07 MXN). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (78).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 36.8
P/S ratio 1.69 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) 3.89 MXN price ÷ EPS = P/E 36.8
Dividend yield 1.7% payout 63.4%
Net margin 4.6% FY2025
Return on equity 6.5% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 8.7% avg 5y
Operating margin 6.9% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) 191B MXN TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −0.9% 3y avg +1.8%
EPS growth (YoY) −5.6%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow 16.1B MXN FY2025
Net debt 13.2B MXN FY2025 · ≈ 0.8 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 60/100

Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60

Profitability 35
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 46
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 62
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 64
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 79
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 76
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 50
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 60
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Grupo Carso, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the commercial, industrial, infrastructure and construction, and energy businesses in Mexico, North America, Central America, South America, the Caribbean, Europe, and internationally.

Full company description

Grupo Carso, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the commercial, industrial, infrastructure and construction, and energy businesses in Mexico, North America, Central America, South America, the Caribbean, Europe, and internationally. It operates retail stores and sells various products, including electronics, household items, furniture, clothing, pharmaceuticals, health and beauty products, books, videos, music, toys, sports items, cellphones, technology products, and other merchandise, as well as traditional Mexican food under the Sanborns Cafés, MixUp, iShop, Sears, Dax, and Saks Fifth Avenue brand names. The company also manufactures and markets products and services, such as electrical and coaxial cables, telecommunications equipment, fiber optics, automotive harnesses, and piping specialized industrial components for construction and infrastructure, energy, automotive, telecommunications, and mining industries under the Condumex brand name; and engages in the installation of pipelines, fabrication and services for petrochemical, infrastructure projects, civil construction, and housing development. In addition, it is involved in the exploration, discovery, production, exploitation, refining, transportation, purchasing, and marketing of hydrocarbons and minerals; transportation of natural gas; exploration, production, and exploitation of geothermal energy; and investment, construction, and transmission of gas pipeline. Further, the company engages in the research and development; design of automotive harnesses; development of software; testing of embedded automotive systems; and engineering services. It exports its products. The company was incorporated in 1980 and is headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V reported revenue of 192B MXN in FY2025 versus 125B MXN in FY2021, a compound +11.4%/yr. Reported net income was 8.8B MXN in FY2025, compounding −6.1%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 84/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
192B MXN
Latest YoY
−3.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+16.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (25Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.1%
Value creation/yr (5Y, in MXN) Earnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, EBIT basis) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year. Measured in MXN: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+27.1% (25.4 + 1.7)
Revenue +11.4%/yr
FY21 125B MXN
FY22 182B MXN
FY23 193B MXN
FY24 198B MXN
FY25 192B MXN
Net income −6.1%/yr
FY21 11.3B MXN
FY22 19.1B MXN
FY23 13.5B MXN
FY24 14.5B MXN
FY25 8.8B MXN

GCARSOA1 screens 75% overvalued. Compare with ITOCHU Corporation →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GCARSOA1

Peer Group

Conglomerates · 375 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 60 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −43% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 7% · Above median
Return on assets 4% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 7% · Above median
Revenue growth −1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.7% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.15× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 36.8× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 1.97× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 1.49× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 1.0× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 11.9× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 23
FUTURE0 · sector 17
PAST26 · sector 17
HEALTH93 · sector 89
DIVIDEND34 · sector 42

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 48/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Conglomerates stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 20, 2026).

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Poste Italiane S.p.A PST €26.90 €7.65 −72%
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SK Inc 034730 553,000 KRW 615,077 KRW +11%
PT Astra International Tbk, ASII 4,800 IDR 9,600 IDR +100%
Jardine Matheson Holdings J36 $59.10 $79.11 +34%
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Frequently asked questions

Is Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V (GCARSOA1) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 20, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 81.79 MXN versus a price of 143.29 MXN, about −43% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GCARSOA1?
Our model-based fair value for Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V is 81.79 MXN (as of Aug 20, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 143.29 MXN.
What is the quality score of GCARSOA1?
Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V (GCARSOA1)?
Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 191B MXN (latest available figure, as of Aug 20, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of GCARSOA1?
The net profit margin of Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V is about 4.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 4.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V pay a dividend?
Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.72% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 20, 2026).
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