Grupo Carso, S.A. (GCARSOA1) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · MX · Market cap 285B MXN
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from 66.21 MXN to 81.79 MXN (+23.5%) since Jul 16, 2026. Share price −8.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 36% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (102.24 MXN). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 52.11 MXN – 184.05 MXN · fair‑value band 61.34 MXN – 102.24 MXN · the 127.02 MXN price screens above the 81.79 MXN fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Grupo Carso, S.A. (GCARSOA1) currently trades at 127.02 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 81.79 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 35.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Grupo Carso, S.A. generated revenue of 191B MXN at a net margin of 4.1%. Revenue declined 0.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.5%. Net debt stands at 13.2B MXN. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 61.34 MXN (bear case) to 102.24 MXN (bull case); at 127.02 MXN, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at -36%, GCARSOA1 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (120.52 MXN) versus Earnings-Based (21.07 MXN). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Grupo Carso, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the commercial, industrial, infrastructure and construction, and energy businesses in Mexico, North America, Central America, South America, the Caribbean, Europe, and internationally.
Full company description
Grupo Carso, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the commercial, industrial, infrastructure and construction, and energy businesses in Mexico, North America, Central America, South America, the Caribbean, Europe, and internationally. It operates retail stores and sells various products, including electronics, household items, furniture, clothing, pharmaceuticals, health and beauty products, books, videos, music, toys, sports items, cellphones, technology products, and other merchandise, as well as traditional Mexican food under the Sanborns Cafés, MixUp, iShop, Sears, Dax, and Saks Fifth Avenue brand names. The company also manufactures and markets products and services, such as electrical and coaxial cables, telecommunications equipment, fiber optics, automotive harnesses, and piping specialized industrial components for construction and infrastructure, energy, automotive, telecommunications, and mining industries under the Condumex brand name; and engages in the installation of pipelines, fabrication and services for petrochemical, infrastructure projects, civil construction, and housing development. In addition, it is involved in the exploration, discovery, production, exploitation, refining, transportation, purchasing, and marketing of hydrocarbons and minerals; transportation of natural gas; exploration, production, and exploitation of geothermal energy; and investment, construction, and transmission of gas pipeline. Further, the company engages in the research and development; design of automotive harnesses; development of software; testing of embedded automotive systems; and engineering services. It exports its products. The company was incorporated in 1980 and is headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Grupo Carso, S.A. reported revenue of 192B MXN in FY2025 versus 125B MXN in FY2021, a compound +11.4%/yr. Reported net income was 8.8B MXN in FY2025, compounding −6.1%/yr from FY2021.
GCARSOA1 screens 36% overvalued. Compare with ITOCHU Corporation →
Peer Group
Conglomerates · 385 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 48/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Conglomerates stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ITOCHU Corporation ITOCHU19 | 7.20 THB | 14.40 THB | +100% |
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| Koç Holding KCHOL | 205.80 TRY | 182.26 TRY | -11% |
| SRF Limited SRF | ₹2,585 | ₹859.71 | -67% |
| Empresas Copec S.A COPEC | 6,030 CLP | 10,809 CLP | +79% |
| Posco International Corporation 047050 | 54,300 KRW | 71,119 KRW | +31% |
| Tube Investments of India Limited TIINDIA | ₹2,839 | ₹723.80 | -75% |
| Doosan Corporation 000155 | 436,000 KRW | 93,413 KRW | -79% |
| Thermax Limited THERMAX | ₹4,002 | ₹1,343 | -66% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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