Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V (GCARSOA1) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · MX · Market cap 285B MXN (≈ $16.9B) · ISIN MXP461181085
What is Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V really worth?
A solid business, but trading 75% above our fair value of 81.79 MXN.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 20, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (102.24 MXN). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 52.11 MXN – 184.05 MXN · fair‑value band 61.34 MXN – 102.24 MXN · the 143.29 MXN price screens above the 81.79 MXN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
Analysis
Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V (GCARSOA1) currently trades at 143.29 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 81.79 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 75.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 120.52 MXN per share, and 0 of the 13 models we run sit above the 143.29 MXN price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 21.07 MXN, and 13 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V generated revenue of 191B MXN at a net margin of 4.1%. Revenue declined 0.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.5%. Net debt stands at 13.2B MXN. Fundamentals as of Aug 20, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 61.34 MXN (bear case) to 102.24 MXN (bull case); at 143.29 MXN, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at −43%, GCARSOA1 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly 2.64 MXN per share, which is 3.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (120.52 MXN) versus Earnings-Based (21.07 MXN). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (78).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Grupo Carso, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the commercial, industrial, infrastructure and construction, and energy businesses in Mexico, North America, Central America, South America, the Caribbean, Europe, and internationally.
Full company description
Grupo Carso, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the commercial, industrial, infrastructure and construction, and energy businesses in Mexico, North America, Central America, South America, the Caribbean, Europe, and internationally. It operates retail stores and sells various products, including electronics, household items, furniture, clothing, pharmaceuticals, health and beauty products, books, videos, music, toys, sports items, cellphones, technology products, and other merchandise, as well as traditional Mexican food under the Sanborns Cafés, MixUp, iShop, Sears, Dax, and Saks Fifth Avenue brand names. The company also manufactures and markets products and services, such as electrical and coaxial cables, telecommunications equipment, fiber optics, automotive harnesses, and piping specialized industrial components for construction and infrastructure, energy, automotive, telecommunications, and mining industries under the Condumex brand name; and engages in the installation of pipelines, fabrication and services for petrochemical, infrastructure projects, civil construction, and housing development. In addition, it is involved in the exploration, discovery, production, exploitation, refining, transportation, purchasing, and marketing of hydrocarbons and minerals; transportation of natural gas; exploration, production, and exploitation of geothermal energy; and investment, construction, and transmission of gas pipeline. Further, the company engages in the research and development; design of automotive harnesses; development of software; testing of embedded automotive systems; and engineering services. It exports its products. The company was incorporated in 1980 and is headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V reported revenue of 192B MXN in FY2025 versus 125B MXN in FY2021, a compound +11.4%/yr. Reported net income was 8.8B MXN in FY2025, compounding −6.1%/yr from FY2021.
GCARSOA1 screens 75% overvalued. Compare with ITOCHU Corporation →
Peer Group
Conglomerates · 375 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 48/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Conglomerates stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 20, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ITOCHU Corporation ITOCHU19 | 7.20 THB | 14.40 THB | +100% |
| 3M Company MMM | $178.83 | $76.87 | −57% |
| Honeywell International Inc HON | $217.43 | $218.95 | +1% |
| CITIC Limited 0267 | HK$13.02 | HK$26.04 | +100% |
| Poste Italiane S.p.A PST | €26.90 | €7.65 | −72% |
| Swire Pacific Limited 0019 | HK$106.30 | HK$36.88 | −65% |
| SK Inc 034730 | 553,000 KRW | 615,077 KRW | +11% |
| PT Astra International Tbk, ASII | 4,800 IDR | 9,600 IDR | +100% |
| Jardine Matheson Holdings J36 | $59.10 | $79.11 | +34% |
| Kingboard Holdings 0148 | HK$45.52 | HK$32.91 | −28% |
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