Games Workshop Group PLC (GAW) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · GB · Market cap 6.7B GBX · ISIN GB0003718474
What is Games Workshop Group PLC really worth?
A strong business, but trading 63% above our fair value of £113.48.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 2, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Share price −2.9% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 92/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (£147.04). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- A fairly wide model range (£76.39 to £147.04) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £49.08 – £219.19 · fair‑value band £76.39 – £147.04 · the £184.50 price screens above the £113.48 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.
Analysis
Games Workshop Group PLC (GAW) currently trades at £184.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £113.48, implying the stock looks roughly 62.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 92/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of £131.43 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the £184.50 price. Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at £33.99, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Games Workshop Group PLC generated revenue of £650M at a net margin of 31.8%. Revenue grew 10.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 67.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of £87.4M. Fundamentals as of Sep 2, 2026
Our scenario range runs from £76.39 (bear case) to £147.04 (bull case); at £184.50, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at −38%, GAW screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 12 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly £1.39 per share, which is 1.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (£131.43) versus Asset-Based (£5.69). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 88 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Games Workshop Group PLC, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, manufacture, distribution, and sale of fantasy miniature figures and games in the United Kingdom, Continental Europe, North America, Australia, New Zealand, Asia, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Core and Licensing.
Full company description
Games Workshop Group PLC, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, manufacture, distribution, and sale of fantasy miniature figures and games in the United Kingdom, Continental Europe, North America, Australia, New Zealand, Asia, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Core and Licensing. The company offers games under the Warhammer 40,000, Warhammer: The Horus Heresy, Warhammer: The Old World, Warhammer: Age of Sigmar, Necromunda, Blood Bowl, and the Lord of the Rings brand names. It also publishes short stories, audio dramas, full length novels, and audio books under the Black Library name; and produces motion picture, video, and television programs. In addition, the company provides merchandise, apparel, video games accessories, display art, and action figures; and design, produces, and sells various books and accessories, as well as plastic and resin kits, and painting guides. Further, it grants licenses to third parties for the development of video games, PC games, media and other products; and engages in the magazine newsstand and trustee businesses. It offers its products through its retail stores, independent retailers, and web stores. The company was incorporated in 1991 and is headquartered in Nottingham, the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Games Workshop Group PLC reported revenue of £618M in FY2025 versus £370M in FY2021, a compound +13.7%/yr. Reported net income was £196M in FY2025, compounding +12.6%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +18.1 % · buybacks/dilution −0.3 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
GAW screens 63% overvalued. Compare with ANTA Sports Products Limited →
Peer Group
Leisure · 190 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Leisure median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Leisure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 2, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ANTA Sports Products Limited 82020 | HK$65.10 | HK$97.98 | +51% |
| Pop Mart International Group 9992 | HK$158.70 | HK$227.30 | +43% |
| Amer Sports, Inc AS | $33.03 | $16.16 | −51% |
| Hasbro, Inc HAS | $94.10 | $81.97 | −13% |
| Life Time Group LTH | $45.40 | $15.61 | −66% |
| Li Ning Company 82331 | HK$11.62 | HK$11.48 | −1% |
| Acushnet Holdings GOLF | $89.10 | $36.89 | −59% |
| Ninebot Limited 689009 | ¥44.94 | ¥39.73 | −12% |
| Mattel, Inc MAT | $15.26 | $18.93 | +24% |
| Planet Fitness, Inc PLNT | $53.33 | $52.62 | −1% |
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